Tuesday, May 31, 2011

European Debt Galaxy

With heartfelt apologies to Monty Python's "Galaxy Song" (from "Meaning of Life")

The Euro Debt Galaxy Song

Just remember that you're standing on a debt that's just evolving
And revolving at 3 trillion euros a year
That's interest of 5k a second, so it's reckoned
A sum that is the drain of all our power
That sum and you and me, and all the money that we can see
Is sucked out at 400 mill a day
In an outer spiral arm, at 440 bp
Down the plughole we call the ECB

Our debt itself contains 100 million billion loans
It's 100,000 light-years side to side
It bulges in the middle, duration three to seven
But out by us it's just one year wide
We're 30,000 light-years from repayment's final point
As we roll it forward 200 million years
And our debt is only one of millions of billions
In this quantitatively easing universe

The periphery debt keeps on expanding and expanding
In all of the directions it can whiz
As fast as it can go, at the speed of light you know
Twelve billion trillion a minute and that's the fastest print there is
So remember, when you're feeling very small and insecure
How unlikely your money you will ever see
And pray that there's intelligent life somewhere in the world
Because there's bugger all at the ECB


Polemic said...

folks sorry we have been getting less frequent but travel, work and holidays have kept us tied up.

Re the bounce in everything good. Yes, who would have believed we had European problems a few days ago. Well they haven't gone away, just lurking around waiting. It does feel very 2010 at the moment though. June 10 saw one push lower then it was off to the races again for europe as US growth fears picked up. Just like now.

You got to wonder if that story today about the Chinese doing something about the trillions of Yuan of bad debts is to be interpreted as positive that they are doing something or terrifying that they are having to do something so soon with such large figures involved. We know its coming- was just a matter of when.

I'd like to think that once month end madness is out of the way we will start to see which theme is now the main driver. Euro and US woes now fighting for top position but I think China might just come back and cause downward surprises. Throw that into a weak US and weak Europe picture and it could be really messy.

refusing to get bulled up


Anonymous said...

More and more often recently, I hear myself saying "I just don't get it." Another such moment arrived today.

Poor Italian sales, poor French spending, poor German employment, Denmark entering a recession, poor Chicago Purchasing Manager index, six month low in consumer confidence, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index goes negative (just to name a few).

Concurrent with all of these releases is a massive risk rally. WTF?

Skippy said...

The source of the rumours out of China suggests that they are true according to one of the local banks.

Although I agree with Polemic that it is not entirely clear that it should be interpreted as positive.

For a start, the size of the problem is still not clear. The "official" estimate is somewhere around 10trn RMB (~3trn of non performing). But because most of the projects are infrastructure related, the ultimate size of the problem may not be known for years.

This latest development may also be consistent with tight policy for now. Although there appear to be strong factions in the leadership (encouraged by complaints from the provinces and the state-owned corporate sector) who are already demanding policy easing at the first sign of a slow down.

Anonymous said...

Re: Vancouver house prices. WSJ mentionned this charming website this morning

Skippy said...

very funny Anon - more million dollar crack houses in Vancover than in Sydney

Polemic said...

Agree - that Vancouver property site is wonderful. We ought to do the same with London - "Bar or Bank" with photos of old banking halls that may now be Bars.