Thursday, September 02, 2010

Don’t sell 'til you see the whites of their socks

Labour day is unofficially the end of the summer in the US financial markets, so, although the UK and Europe are returning to work (the rest of the world never stops working we know), in this vacuous state of current market theme it may be a case of "No, you go first.. No please .. After you". Because it certainly feels as though no one REALLY wants to do anything and true commitment to trades is very light and can be swung on a dime. The problem is that fund managers are paid to make money, not to do nothing. Unless of course nothing involves riding a profitable trend (see treasuries). The end of the year is now visible and after such a shoddy return, the levels of desperation to perform are going to be rising and we would suspect that any developing minor trend will be pounced on, piled into and finally, later, be puked out of. A rally in something will occur, not so much through greed, but because of a fund manager's more terrifying fear that he has underperformed his peer group and must not miss out.

With current opinion of the world only certain of the uncertainty, it is easier to follow the shoal than be the lone anchovy soon to be shark food. When it comes to end of year arse covering, it's easier to explain away your underperformance if you were in good company, than as a stand out maverick. For one thing, if everyone made no money then who are they going to hire to replace you? If you are the stand out worst performer then the answer is "anyone". It's similar to the asymmetry in response to the financial crisis. The imprudent majority protected at the cost of the prudent minority. And that taught us all something - go with the majority, however stupid, as the majority ends up carrying the vote (and pitchforks).

So that is why, with real money managers returning in an environment already discounting doom, they are probably going to look around and place their roulette chips on equities. And when they do and the markets start moving, there will be a "follow the leader" response, however stupid the move may look. Like usual the market will find some good reason of post justification.

We remember the old army saying "don’t fire until you see the whites of their eyes", designed to conserve ammo and make sure every shot is a kill. We also remember in the late 80s early 90s, the fashion for spivvy London boys (and hence many in the London markets) to wear white socks. So we will sit here like Lieutenant Bromhead at Rorkes Drift, in the face of what may be a Zulu dawn of traders buying equities and shout -

Don’t Sell 'til you see the whites of their socks!


Leftback said...

Fix bayonets, lads, we're going over the top....

Nic said...

Polemic that article you posted yesterday was prolly right. AAII US investor sentiment
up to 30.8% from last weeks 18month low of 20.7%. Looks like a bottom might be in.

Leftback said...

We've come so far, so fast. Bit of a pull-back in the works tomorrow, before we toddle off to hide from the hurricane, we reckon....

action said...
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FX said...

TMM,the thematic timing of this post is very appropriate,indeed.

The reserves in our third team in the second half are no doubt in the sheds in readiness for the al la BoJ grab the knife and run with it for all its worth.

In the meantime the STFU indicator has definitley been "nobbled", to say the least.

Our ref yesterday put one foot in the "recoupling zone".

I don't think I"ll fight the tape neither, if it goes that way then its just confirming our underlying view for the intermediate future.

Go the ECB!

FX said...

OK,PoLIMEC,I think we need to step up now, your the man with the bloomie.

Time to improve the arsenal of leading indicators.

We have:

"Risk barometer" our third team in the second half

EZ STFU leading indicator

We know now where our upper Decoupling zone is for our ref (though the zone is transitory)

I'm certain gold will have to be thrown in there somewhere, with a splash of QE sentiment,say,a blend of a QE sentiment indicator - SP500 sentiment and short-term movement- relative to Gold short-term movement - USD dollar .(short-term 2-5 weeks) vs a global(usd/euro/china/gbp data sentiment indicator.We already know what the bonds are saying , leave them out, though it maybe a good idea to throw a ROC from here on in that instrument.

My fingers are iching for one of those bloomies.