By The Time You Read This...

...Macro Man will be making his first appearance on the ski slopes since the defining moment of his 2009. It's been ten months since his ACL reconstruction, and over that period he's put in more hours than he can count in stretching, lifting, jumping, and other forms of rehabilitation.

While some might think it foolhardy to return to the slopes a year after his injury, from Macro Man's perspective he had but two options: with his 40's rapidly approaching, to slide gracefully into middle age and alter his lifestyle....or to work his tail off and get back on the horse ASAP. Obviously, he chose the latter.

To be sure, he's going to dial down the intensity from his usual standard, not least because he suspects it will take some time to get used to the carbon fibre knee brace he'll be wearing. However, much like in trading, psychological factors will impact his performance, especially during the first few runs and/or mogul fields.

Anyhow, bonne chance to all readers and normal service will (fingers crossed) resume in a week's time.
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Anonymous
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February 22, 2010 at 9:32 AM ×

Macro man on vacation? Alright volatity here we come. Be careful and have fun hombre.
Osaka John

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Anonymous
admin
February 22, 2010 at 9:56 AM ×

Since I have had the same injury, I suggest take your knee brace with you. Dont ski without it as it gives mental and physical protection.

fxpanther

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CV
admin
February 22, 2010 at 10:06 AM ×

@ John

Yes, we might be in for a turret week here especially with things like this flying around;

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/02/is-aig-the-main-cds-insurer-for-greek-government-debt.html

Claus

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Anonymous
admin
February 22, 2010 at 11:44 AM ×

@ CV

Thanks for that link (nice translation there too!). Maybe lightening strikes twice. Goldman probably is holding a bunch of these AIG CDS to hedge their currency swap!

I am mostly afraid that the short EUR/short GBP is too obvious now. I can's read any news without seeing somebody saying how inevitable major EUR loses are.

Cheers!

Osaka John

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Anonymous
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February 22, 2010 at 1:07 PM ×

hi OJ - why do you think short EURGBP instead of EURUSD?
-melki

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Richy Rich
admin
February 22, 2010 at 2:10 PM ×

short eurgbp because i have just come back from hols in europe ( ldn based).. fool proof .. can trade gbp fx easily around my hol dates.

like the idea of a turn week , Demark indicators bleeping and whooping all over the place for a turn (look at aus crosses and usd/jpy) and the ultimate soothsayer indicator - the bradley siderograph,

http://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzumBradley-Siderograph/Bradley-Siderograph/

has the biggest turn day of the year for all markets coming up monday 1st ( +/- 4 days) . All the ducks are lining up for a fair old move. Vols are lower you say? Well maybe time to get em onboard again .. and directional risk is for risk sell off within the coming week.

Only thing I'm not sure about is what euro does in a risk sell off this time as the market is positioned so short now ..

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frankthetank
admin
February 22, 2010 at 2:46 PM ×

Best of luck out there.

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leftback
admin
February 22, 2010 at 3:01 PM ×

Save the Balls-out Bode runs for next year. Have fun.

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Steve
admin
February 22, 2010 at 3:37 PM ×

Richy Rich what do you know about this cycles tool? It looks interesting and would like to know what it is based on. I have followed other cycle analysts in the past and as far as I am concerned, the jury is still out, at best.

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Nic
admin
February 22, 2010 at 4:13 PM ×

Full moon on the evening of 28Feb, often a pivot. (No flames please they worked for Gann).

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Anonymous
admin
February 22, 2010 at 4:33 PM ×

flames

lots of flames

yours the age of aquarius

-melki

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Anonymous
admin
February 22, 2010 at 5:42 PM ×

Don't do the Clavadista d'Macro Man!

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Anonymous
admin
February 22, 2010 at 9:35 PM ×

Well, you missed NOTHING today.

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I-Man
admin
February 23, 2010 at 3:20 PM ×

Is there some kind of methadone available out there for Macro Man withdrawal?

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leftback
admin
February 23, 2010 at 3:37 PM ×

46 on the confidence number.

Double dip here we come. Below SPX 1100 here, MM. Presumably it will be more of a giant slalom than a downhill but risk is certainly OFF today.

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February 23, 2010 at 4:27 PM ×

XLY is looking pretty darn rich off the back of this kind of news...... not sure if anyone else has been taking a look at retailers recently but I'm having serious difficulty seeing the growth from here though the margin improvements from cheaper commercial rents and basically stagnant wage costs etc etc are all very real.

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Anonymous
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February 23, 2010 at 4:44 PM ×

And the perverse fantasies of a deflationary armageddon continue. Warning! Too much Prechter can be deleterious to an individual's mental health.

The deflation scare is over, the Fed has shown no inclination to shrink the balance sheet. Yellen was even talking *more* MBS purchases.

Looks like a bunch of garbage trading to get gold under $1100 for options expiry.

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leftback
admin
February 23, 2010 at 4:46 PM ×

Quite a few retailers benefitted from cost cutting, staff layoffs, elimination of competitors and a rebound in spending, but the easy days are over. Now they are having to make up the hard yards as the New Normal sets in. This morning's number is a significant one.

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February 23, 2010 at 5:37 PM ×

LB I'd agree. Tilting the book towards the long slow grind-out credits that are going to get over the line and shorting the equity. This is playing out in a very Richard Koo kind of way which does not preclude one from making money, its just that you've got to get long deleveraging and non-US demand (until China blows up, but that's another year).

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leftback
admin
February 23, 2010 at 5:43 PM ×

It's not easy to get long deleveraging.. but 2¥ off the Euro is an indication of reduced risk appetite!

... "it's only a flesh wound"...

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deniz
admin
February 23, 2010 at 7:46 PM ×

any thoughts on this?

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg560.htm

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Anonymous
admin
February 23, 2010 at 11:19 PM ×

bills are issued, cash is drained from the system, liquidity is reduced. simples.

just another removal of excess liquidity ... another reason by on a *forward* basis, the curve should be flattening.

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deniz
admin
February 24, 2010 at 1:54 AM ×

on the other hand $250bn more to go with mortgages. ramping up sfp ' s will just offset that.

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Anonymous
admin
February 24, 2010 at 9:49 AM ×

Copper flirting with 7000 again (on way down) while WTI never looked comfortable over 80 and is seeing sub-78 on possibly bearish stats later today. Commods following the euro down/$ up scenario.

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leftback
admin
February 24, 2010 at 8:02 PM ×

Bernanke managed to talk down the dollar for about an hour. The dollar is gaining strength in spite of itself... guess nobody really wants to hold € right now.

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Anonymous
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February 25, 2010 at 3:57 PM ×

I've had three ACL Recons all to the same knee. good luck... you had better have 100% confidence in the knee because you will be more prone to injury if you do "favor" it.

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leftback
admin
February 25, 2010 at 6:33 PM ×

Hope your trip is going well on and off piste, MM. Traders in NY seem piste off with this morning's claims numbers, although today's action seems to have been anticipated somewhat by strong overnight buying of JPY. We will not be reading about "failed Treasury auctions" this week...

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leftback
admin
February 26, 2010 at 5:27 PM ×

We probably have more snow in NY than you do today, MM, and there is absolutely no volume. This week has been so bizarre I am thinking of only putting on Costanza trades from now on.

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david
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February 26, 2010 at 5:36 PM ×

I just saw here that the woman who wrote the report yesterday on China buying gold from the IMF had no official sources:

http://www.goldalert.com/gold-price-blog.php

- big surprise

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Anonymous
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February 27, 2010 at 6:25 PM ×

I've never seen a money manager take so much vacation. Unbelievable...but more power to you.

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Professional Gringo
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February 28, 2010 at 7:41 PM ×

Looks like certain Chinese ministries are leaking to a small news outfit about Yuan appreciation.

Just checking for world reaction? Insignificant 3-5% being tossed out there which is all certain industries can withstand.

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