Monday, February 22, 2010

By The Time You Read This...

...Macro Man will be making his first appearance on the ski slopes since the defining moment of his 2009. It's been ten months since his ACL reconstruction, and over that period he's put in more hours than he can count in stretching, lifting, jumping, and other forms of rehabilitation.

While some might think it foolhardy to return to the slopes a year after his injury, from Macro Man's perspective he had but two options: with his 40's rapidly approaching, to slide gracefully into middle age and alter his lifestyle....or to work his tail off and get back on the horse ASAP. Obviously, he chose the latter.

To be sure, he's going to dial down the intensity from his usual standard, not least because he suspects it will take some time to get used to the carbon fibre knee brace he'll be wearing. However, much like in trading, psychological factors will impact his performance, especially during the first few runs and/or mogul fields.

Anyhow, bonne chance to all readers and normal service will (fingers crossed) resume in a week's time.

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

Macro man on vacation? Alright volatity here we come. Be careful and have fun hombre.
Osaka John

Anonymous said...

Since I have had the same injury, I suggest take your knee brace with you. Dont ski without it as it gives mental and physical protection.

fxpanther

CV said...

@ John

Yes, we might be in for a turret week here especially with things like this flying around;

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/02/is-aig-the-main-cds-insurer-for-greek-government-debt.html

Claus

Anonymous said...

@ CV

Thanks for that link (nice translation there too!). Maybe lightening strikes twice. Goldman probably is holding a bunch of these AIG CDS to hedge their currency swap!

I am mostly afraid that the short EUR/short GBP is too obvious now. I can's read any news without seeing somebody saying how inevitable major EUR loses are.

Cheers!

Osaka John

Anonymous said...

hi OJ - why do you think short EURGBP instead of EURUSD?
-melki

Richy Rich said...

short eurgbp because i have just come back from hols in europe ( ldn based).. fool proof .. can trade gbp fx easily around my hol dates.

like the idea of a turn week , Demark indicators bleeping and whooping all over the place for a turn (look at aus crosses and usd/jpy) and the ultimate soothsayer indicator - the bradley siderograph,

http://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzumBradley-Siderograph/Bradley-Siderograph/

has the biggest turn day of the year for all markets coming up monday 1st ( +/- 4 days) . All the ducks are lining up for a fair old move. Vols are lower you say? Well maybe time to get em onboard again .. and directional risk is for risk sell off within the coming week.

Only thing I'm not sure about is what euro does in a risk sell off this time as the market is positioned so short now ..

frankthetank said...

Best of luck out there.

leftback said...

Save the Balls-out Bode runs for next year. Have fun.

Steve said...

Richy Rich what do you know about this cycles tool? It looks interesting and would like to know what it is based on. I have followed other cycle analysts in the past and as far as I am concerned, the jury is still out, at best.

Our Man in NYC said...

Good luck out there MM

Nic said...

Full moon on the evening of 28Feb, often a pivot. (No flames please they worked for Gann).

Anonymous said...

flames

lots of flames

yours the age of aquarius

-melki

Anonymous said...

Don't do the Clavadista d'Macro Man!

Anonymous said...

Well, you missed NOTHING today.

getyourselfconnected said...

Good luck and be careful!

I-Man said...

Is there some kind of methadone available out there for Macro Man withdrawal?

leftback said...

46 on the confidence number.

Double dip here we come. Below SPX 1100 here, MM. Presumably it will be more of a giant slalom than a downhill but risk is certainly OFF today.

Nemo Incognito said...

XLY is looking pretty darn rich off the back of this kind of news...... not sure if anyone else has been taking a look at retailers recently but I'm having serious difficulty seeing the growth from here though the margin improvements from cheaper commercial rents and basically stagnant wage costs etc etc are all very real.

Anonymous said...

And the perverse fantasies of a deflationary armageddon continue. Warning! Too much Prechter can be deleterious to an individual's mental health.

The deflation scare is over, the Fed has shown no inclination to shrink the balance sheet. Yellen was even talking *more* MBS purchases.

Looks like a bunch of garbage trading to get gold under $1100 for options expiry.

leftback said...

Quite a few retailers benefitted from cost cutting, staff layoffs, elimination of competitors and a rebound in spending, but the easy days are over. Now they are having to make up the hard yards as the New Normal sets in. This morning's number is a significant one.

Nemo Incognito said...

LB I'd agree. Tilting the book towards the long slow grind-out credits that are going to get over the line and shorting the equity. This is playing out in a very Richard Koo kind of way which does not preclude one from making money, its just that you've got to get long deleveraging and non-US demand (until China blows up, but that's another year).

leftback said...

It's not easy to get long deleveraging.. but 2¥ off the Euro is an indication of reduced risk appetite!

... "it's only a flesh wound"...

deniz said...

any thoughts on this?

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg560.htm

Anonymous said...

bills are issued, cash is drained from the system, liquidity is reduced. simples.

just another removal of excess liquidity ... another reason by on a *forward* basis, the curve should be flattening.

deniz said...

on the other hand $250bn more to go with mortgages. ramping up sfp ' s will just offset that.

Anonymous said...

Copper flirting with 7000 again (on way down) while WTI never looked comfortable over 80 and is seeing sub-78 on possibly bearish stats later today. Commods following the euro down/$ up scenario.

leftback said...

Bernanke managed to talk down the dollar for about an hour. The dollar is gaining strength in spite of itself... guess nobody really wants to hold € right now.

Anonymous said...

I've had three ACL Recons all to the same knee. good luck... you had better have 100% confidence in the knee because you will be more prone to injury if you do "favor" it.

leftback said...

Hope your trip is going well on and off piste, MM. Traders in NY seem piste off with this morning's claims numbers, although today's action seems to have been anticipated somewhat by strong overnight buying of JPY. We will not be reading about "failed Treasury auctions" this week...

leftback said...

We probably have more snow in NY than you do today, MM, and there is absolutely no volume. This week has been so bizarre I am thinking of only putting on Costanza trades from now on.

david said...

I just saw here that the woman who wrote the report yesterday on China buying gold from the IMF had no official sources:

http://www.goldalert.com/gold-price-blog.php

- big surprise

Anonymous said...

I've never seen a money manager take so much vacation. Unbelievable...but more power to you.

Professional Gringo said...

Looks like certain Chinese ministries are leaking to a small news outfit about Yuan appreciation.

Just checking for world reaction? Insignificant 3-5% being tossed out there which is all certain industries can withstand.