Thursday, November 26, 2009

Ten Things I'm Thankful For

It's Thanksgiving today, which means heavily impaired liquidity and, thus far, large price swings. Before Macro Man starts to "cook" Thanksgiving dinner (i.e., put the turkey on the barbecue to roast while Mrs. Macro does everything else), he has time to once again count his blessings after what has been another eventful year:

1) First, and most importantly, that Mrs. Macro and the Macro Boys are healthy and happy.

2) That it was he, rather than they, that suffered a serious knee injury while skiing in February.

3) That he works in an industry that provides intellectual stimulation, indulges his competitive instincts, and offers plenty of fodder for his satiric side.

4) That just about everyone he knows from Lehman (hint: none of them were assemblers, traders, or sellers of packaged turds) has landed on their feet.

5) That despite being wrong in his big picture views for what seems like forever, Macro Man has managed to scratch out a bit of P/L this year.

6) That he has an open enough mind to hedge his bets and change his behaviour when he is wrong, even if the view is unchanged.

7) That his firm has a) been so supportive of his injury rehab efforts, and b) managed to cobble together another good year

8) That he has not taken a dime, directly or indirectly, from any taxpayers....

9) That he was not in any way invested in the December 2009 bonds of Nakheel, which have plunged over the last 24 hours on a restructuring announcement. They're currently trading around 70; a 40 point drop 3 weeks before the supposed maturity has gotta hurt...
10) That this space continues to attract a frankly baffling number of readers and a high calibre of interaction with other market punters and observers. Thanks for reading....

....and best of luck for the remainder of 2009.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm guessing the "high calibre of interaction with other market punters and observers" or want and lack thereof, is why we have been relegated to the last spot on your top 10 list.

:-)

Happy Thanksgiving!

Anonymous said...

MM: You are a good guy and run a smart blog. Happy turkey day.

"Extend and pretend" or "a rolling loan gathers no loss" have been the operating philosophy in the States since march.

Now, why haven't Dubai's bankers figured this out?

Anonymous said...

Great Blog - Have 30-somethings got any hope of being hired as trainee Macro traders?

Anonymous said...

Thank you MM, for the thoughts and musings. I've been pleasently entertained since stumbling upon this unique space.

A

getyourselfconnected said...

The baffling amount of readers come and return back for great content, nothing baffling there!

Happy Thanksgiving.

Stefan said...

Happy thanksgiving.

Guys and girls not celebrating focus on markets, feeling alone.

Anyone noticed divergence between developed markets and Central East Europe + Greece in recent weeks? Liquidity bubble or what?

But What do I Know? said...

And I'm thankful for bloggers like you, MM. Keep the good stuff coming.

Steve said...

Happy Thanksgiving MM, and all commenters.

MM I am curious: Are the young MMs subjects of the Queen?

leftback said...

Happy Thanksgiving, Macro Man, and many thanks for the insights and laughs.

Anon @ 10.47am:

You are too modest, Gary. Happy turkey day to you too. Of course, the beatings will resume tomorrow...

Anonymous said...

I am happy that the real market actually popped above the water while the goons have gone to wherever they go on holidays.

Gregor Samsa said...

Sanity returns. There should be more US holidays, if this is what it takes.

Anonymous said...

BWDIK shurely its keep the good stuffing coming, chortle. Nah, but seriously thanks and have a good thanksgiving all.
JL

Crisis Management said...

You knew something was wrong when Mr. Maktoum demanded a few weeks ago, speaking in English, that his critics "shut up." Dubai Inc. has consistenly downplayed their debt burden; a few months prior Mr. Maktoum dismissed the financial crisis as a "passing cloud."

There are many similarities to the 1931 bankruptcy of Creditanstalt. Worth noting that Rothschild was recently hired as an advisor to Dubai's bailout fund.

Crisis Management said...

And happy holidays to all...

leftback said...

LB is eagerly awaiting MM's synopsis of the European trading day tomorrow morning. Given the current positioning of his portfolio, LB is looking forward to a nice turkey dinner with more than the usual degree of relish. Can you say "disorderly unwind"?

Anonymous said...

Happy thanksgiving MM, and congrats on what I regard as the most well informed blog on the web - I read ftalpha for the info, and your blog for the excellent commentary :). Keep up the good work!
@crisis mgmt: That's a really good point, I'd already forgotten about Maktoum's verbal attacks.
During the past few weeks/months, I'd nearly started to believe that 'the worst is over', but this (Dubai's moratorium) is definitely once again a key turning point - the next leg down in this Second Depression?

Macro Man said...

Thanks for the kind wishes all. I've certainly spent more time with an eye on the screen hear at Macro Manor than I intended to today...'twill be interesting to see how stuff trades tomorrow when liquidity improves very marginally.

Oh, and Steve: while the Macro Boys have English accents, they are not UK citizens- they hold US and Irish passports.

Professional Gringo said...

Will we be getting the promised daily cheerleader pictures with the macro outlook from now on?

Just a thought you know.

Cheers

Crisis Management said...

Don't look now but Y85 just gave way... quite an extreme move. What was Dubai thinking timing this annoucement right in front of a holiday news + liquidity vacuum?

Stefan said...

I think we might easily see bunch of interventions here. Strangle is the call, although it may be a bit pricey now. EURCHF approaching hot fingers level of 1,50 with SNB watching. Liquidity just sucks at the moment. If this sharp sell off continues when real money is back from turkey eating, than I am close to think that something big is rolling behind the hill.

leftback said...

The new government in Tokyo may well panic if a big sell-off starts. The obvious intervention would be for BoJ to buy dollars, and that would obviously trigger a sustantial unwind in DGDF-driven portfolios.

Hedge funds with a limited investment philosophy and cognitively challenged managers of a hubristic nature managing large inflexible portfolios may be reaching for the antacids about now....

Our Man in NYC said...

Happy Thanksgiving y'all!!

Nemo Incognito said...

Viz copper - I told you so. FIFO and that think has been booking it since mid Jan.


WTF with Yen - the idea of this being a safehaven currency is patently absurd. Ouch.

Stephen said...

Happy Thankgiving

hear today guanno tommorrow said...

not so quick ...