Monday, August 18, 2008

Cold in August

Unfortunately, it will be another day or so before Macro Man can fully re-engage with markets (or at least the market blogosphere), as he is laid up with some sort of bronchial ailment that he picked up lamentably early in his holiday.

Still, you can't say that he didn't warn you that there would be fireworks in his Colt .45, the Macro Man Summer Holiday Indicator "works every time."

While Macro Man didn't anticipate that the dollar would look stronger than a 52 kg Chinese female weightlifter (something that's much more impressive than it sounded 2 weeks ago), he didn't do too badly on his 3 themes, either:

1) Mrs. Watanabe gets stuffed. Well, she did for most of the time that Macro Man was away, though irritatingly NZD/JPY only took 2.5 days to recoup most of the prior week and a half's losses.
2) The China trade goes wrong. This one was pretty spot on. Commodities, Chinese equities, USD/CNY....all traded horribly over the last couple of weeks. Macro Man highlighted the AUD as looking vulnerable, and so it turned out to be, helped in part by dovish comments from the RBA.
3) The equity pain trade: a grind higher. Let's put it this way: Macro Man's next door neighbour is in equity derivatives. During a brief chat on Saturday evening, he observed that the equity market has been "impossible to trade" over the past few weeks. Yeah, that sounds like a pain trade all right.
Macro Man has a few thoughts on the dollar which he'll articulate over the next few days. In the meantime, he's just looking for a little light at the end of the tunnel for his August cold.


Anonymous said...

Get well soon MM and welcome back!

Anonymous said...

You are probably still suffering from the misfortune of finding yourself in that lovely bout of Sahara air of two weeks ago. If it's any consolation, spikes in the incidence of asthma in the Caribbean are linked to that stuff.

We commiserate. Welcome back.


Anonymous said...

Your ability to inform, analyze and entertain is unimpacted by your malady. Nonetheless, I join CB and anon in sending get well wishes. Remember market mishaps and mysterious maladies when next considering the possibility of hols! Best-- Anon

Anonymous said...

Welcome back, sorry to hear about the sniffles, nothing worse on your hols, but at least you had copious sunshine! Crappy UK summers...
Get well, JL

CV said...

Welcome back MM ...

Just joining the choir ... get well soon.


Anonymous said...


Welcome back!


Anonymous said...

It would be interested to hear your USD thoughts, especially whether if you're in the "the market is looking forward to/discounting US outperformance v. the global" camp or if USD outperformance is merely a symptom of deleveraging as US investors are repatriating foreign assets to be defensive.

cheers to to year end should be full of interesting days.

dimitry12 said...

MM, you mentioned "the market blogosphere". It seems like there is no blogroll on your blog, so could you please expand for all of us about what you regard as reputable adn worth the reading-time sources?