tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post969858671668508898..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: I'm still only in Saigon... Every time I think I'm gonna wake up back in the jungleMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22109603237724579202010-07-20T03:32:27.661+01:002010-07-20T03:32:27.661+01:00Nemo, many FDI projects in Vietnam are for import ...Nemo, many FDI projects in Vietnam are for import substitution, eg steel mill, car/bike assembly. Another large chunk of FDI goes to real estate (hotels, resorts, office buildings). To make the matter worse, the government has kept the exchange rate overvalued at least since 2004 (see the chart of VN REER here: http://kinhtetaichinh.blogspot.com/2010/07/reer.html).gianglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14827309948040191025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21809543617904838852010-07-19T16:40:28.645+01:002010-07-19T16:40:28.645+01:00Back to (almost) flat but my timing sucked on that...Back to (almost) flat but my timing sucked on that one. Pickup up some gold risk reversals though - Mr Paulson, you can't buy at 1180 forever..... <br /><br />And as always single name shenanigans in commodities and cyclicals are most of my bread and butter anyhow.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18559511308026205122010-07-19T16:36:55.659+01:002010-07-19T16:36:55.659+01:00Nemo,
I am flirting with that as of late Thursday...Nemo,<br /><br />I am flirting with that as of late Thursday, with a stop based on the prior low 30y yield of 3.88%, and my fingers are still intact as of this moment. <br /><br />Of course had you caressed that beauty a day earlier, Mr Market would have smashed your face in and slammed the car door on your fingers, before kicking you in the nuts for good measure.<br /><br />A couple of days of risk on and Goldie earnings will put this one in profit, and then it's time to say goodbye before Thursday's existing homes data.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66053441468173819682010-07-17T03:20:01.910+01:002010-07-17T03:20:01.910+01:00In other news, who tried to fade long bonds over t...In other news, who tried to fade long bonds over the last week? If you know a good bomb disposal expert who can tell me where I can get prosthetic fingers do let me know. Ouch.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91016388795365493302010-07-17T03:18:36.527+01:002010-07-17T03:18:36.527+01:00ginagle, then my big question is why this hasn'...ginagle, then my big question is why this hasn't translated into some improvement in net exports. I'm well aware the level of monetary sophistication is about the same level as China's in the early 90s, but normally countries get some kind of dividend out of all that FDI.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32919332642409021662010-07-16T14:55:27.045+01:002010-07-16T14:55:27.045+01:00Try to justify staying with Dragon? Good luck! Cou...Try to justify staying with Dragon? Good luck! Couple of points:<br />- The overconsumption in mid-2000s has nothing to do with demography, it's a result of real estate and stock market boom, partly because of the influx of foreign capital.<br />- The spike of inflation and bond yield early 2008 was mostly the result of the central bank's unsterilized foreign reserve accumulation in the preceding years.<br />- The FDI number in the chart looks like the registered total, nowhere near half of the actual implemented inflow.gianglehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14827309948040191025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75922485514363994312010-07-16T13:52:57.736+01:002010-07-16T13:52:57.736+01:00Dai Viet!Dai Viet!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14323475665406703021noreply@blogger.com