tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post951867493378090390..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Stress-freeMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81727210408455689282014-10-29T22:48:02.896+00:002014-10-29T22:48:02.896+00:00Nico,
Rather curious, did you sell to rent? Curren...Nico,<br />Rather curious, did you sell to rent? Current yields average 3% in London, which is at least 1% above financing cost (hsbc just announced a 1% mortgage), and with transaction costs at least 6-7%, you would need a drop of at least 10% in nominal terms (or more than that if it happens over many years) in order to break even. Are you calling a crash? thetanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28852168850732920082014-10-28T13:51:51.966+00:002014-10-28T13:51:51.966+00:00I thought this article by L.A. Little was quite t...I thought this article by L.A. Little was quite thoughtful. It reflects a lot of my own Japan-influenced thoughts on QE, rates and the Fed's views on a stronger dollar (they don't want it, and will try jawboning and even do more QE to keep it down). <br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-qe-is-just-a-matter-of-time-2014-10-27?dist=beforebell" rel="nofollow"> More QE is just a Matter of Time </a><br /><br />I was just thinking that a year or so ago, many commentators were thinking "Janet Yellen will have a tough time of it as rates rise and she will go down in history as the tough Fed Chair who ended QE and hiked rates", and I was smiling quietly at the time and thinking, a leopard doesn't change her spots. The BoJ has had many leaders since the beginning of ZIRP......Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4699630443355447982014-10-28T12:55:46.077+00:002014-10-28T12:55:46.077+00:00We are getting quite close here to LB's favour...We are getting quite close here to LB's favourite targets for this retracement, which are SPY 197-198, and IWM 112, both of which are more or less the 50 day averages. If we nail both of those tomorrow before the FOMC and drain a lot of volatility then we would be a bit nervous for Mr Market.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58015816355186126552014-10-28T12:39:35.787+00:002014-10-28T12:39:35.787+00:00and there, ladies and gents, is that little bounce...and there, ladies and gents, is that little bounce in EURUSD we had been predicting, after the mighty US economic machine flexes its muscles and durable goods orders leap... um, downwards. <br /><br />Sorry, dollar bulls, you have really overstayed your welcome, and if the Carry Monkey decides to go home after the FOMC then you are really up the creek, along with the long only equity guys.<br /><br />Trading EWZ this week was easier than..... (insert your favorite easy activity here).Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48670292898963017052014-10-28T11:27:37.635+00:002014-10-28T11:27:37.635+00:00ditto C
was quite happy to sell London property t...ditto C<br /><br />was quite happy to sell London property this year<br /><br />they want to pay a stupid price? i'll give it to themNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20012327728892464772014-10-28T11:16:34.431+00:002014-10-28T11:16:34.431+00:00Couple of days old, but worth a read... explains h...Couple of days old, but worth a read... explains how the Bond markets could spike when CB's stop QE:<br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-26/treasury-liquidity-squeeze-seen-in-dealer-who-shut-off-machine.htmlQEndnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59675030609344025562014-10-28T10:58:59.168+00:002014-10-28T10:58:59.168+00:00C Says,
Nico,
Good ,may it long continue. Politica...C Says,<br />Nico,<br />Good ,may it long continue. Political stability can be considered a saleable service like any other has far as I concerned. Want to stop that then let those countries from which these funds flow become better at providing that service themselves.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61605490179943466262014-10-28T09:06:10.728+00:002014-10-28T09:06:10.728+00:00the story of London RE is all about ill-gained mon...the story of London RE is all about ill-gained money siphoned from highly corrupted countries (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Greece etc) and invested in the UK at literally, any priceNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2724354623349956942014-10-28T07:54:48.601+00:002014-10-28T07:54:48.601+00:00C Says,
The V having come in most equity not invol...C Says,<br />The V having come in most equity not involved in European core issues settled into the low volatility grind that oft follows the V. I think there will be enough Santa believers to keep that action in play for awhile which is why I see no rush to commit directionally right now.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27873088611970613202014-10-28T07:06:44.325+00:002014-10-28T07:06:44.325+00:00Got it on the real estate sector in Brazil! Got it on the real estate sector in Brazil! CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91332447140572450342014-10-28T06:46:36.439+00:002014-10-28T06:46:36.439+00:00Final Spoos squeeze ahead of FOMC today? Get taht ...Final Spoos squeeze ahead of FOMC today? Get taht 60/65 area.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33798487943033785642014-10-27T23:56:39.065+00:002014-10-27T23:56:39.065+00:00Booming r/e in U.K(Pakistani and Indian money), Cd...Booming r/e in U.K(Pakistani and Indian money), Cdn and Aussi(with Chinese corruption money):<br /><br />"The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, China’s top corruption fighting body, estimates the figure could be as high as $US1.5 trillion for this year alone".<br /><br />http://m.afr.com/p/national/how_chinese_fortunes_are_hidden_EQ7mBdl8pJh7Hy3q9aw6qOAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83703611518212768192014-10-27T22:16:19.344+00:002014-10-27T22:16:19.344+00:00aaaah the good old short ban days
used to live in...aaaah the good old short ban days<br /><br />used to live in Brazil - it will take a lot more damage for RE to look attractive, most friends who invested did x20 in 8 years in the Nordeste... it'll take a while to deflateNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24406353069390987742014-10-27T21:21:44.671+00:002014-10-27T21:21:44.671+00:00Market Regulator Bans Short Selling of MPS and Car...Market Regulator Bans Short Selling of MPS and Carige Shares Through Nov10.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73129399307826412682014-10-27T20:25:06.622+00:002014-10-27T20:25:06.622+00:00CV, I wouldnt touch brazilian RE yet. From my cont...CV, I wouldnt touch brazilian RE yet. From my contacts there, no one is buying anymore (which is a significant change from just 2 years ago) and prices are just too high (not to mention rates)<br /><br />RUB is just getting killed here, not one day can it bounce, and the CB is in there. where will it go?<br /><br />Stress tests were fairly credible in my view, but i've been wrong before so take it for what its worth<br /><br /><br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23199584142186915512014-10-27T19:20:17.384+00:002014-10-27T19:20:17.384+00:00Nice one on EWZ LB, surely GFA is a steal here? I ...Nice one on EWZ LB, surely GFA is a steal here? I mean , they need houses in Brazil right, and these guys has already done a lot of restructuring. I am getting interested!<br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42681309303911123682014-10-27T18:35:06.885+00:002014-10-27T18:35:06.885+00:00quite like that sober look on oil
http://soberloo...quite like that sober look on oil<br /><br />http://soberlook.com/2014/10/the-saudis-have-staying-power-to.htmlNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87783864485066808822014-10-27T18:23:01.203+00:002014-10-27T18:23:01.203+00:00In other news, today saw the last POMO of modern t...In other news, today saw the last POMO of modern times, until the inception of QE4, that is. Mr Market has Come Out of the closet and revealed that since 2009 he has been, on and off, a practicing POMOsexual, beginning with furtive one-on-one POMOsexual encounters with mortgage backed securities during QE1 and progressing to exchanges of liquidity with multiple counter-parties over risky assets in QE2 and culminating in what can only be described as Bacchanalian POMOsexual orgies in peripheral European debt during QE3.<br /><br />The Pope has announced that although POMOsexuality remains against the teachings of the Church, POMOsexuals will no longer be excommunicated because "when you look around in the central banks, they are almost all at it..."Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34917756166002124782014-10-27T18:12:54.415+00:002014-10-27T18:12:54.415+00:00LOL. Parabolic, innit? May have to be very patient...LOL. Parabolic, innit? May have to be very patient on this one, Nico. Might just retire and trade EWZ every day.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84133456539643449922014-10-27T17:46:17.130+00:002014-10-27T17:46:17.130+00:00am starting to think you are working for Gazprom
...am starting to think you are working for Gazprom<br /><br />RUB 42Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25916395347942624872014-10-27T17:03:11.090+00:002014-10-27T17:03:11.090+00:00LB has been avoiding the European bank argument bu...LB has been avoiding the European bank argument but is currently long EURUSD for a trade. We do not anticipate anything hawkish from Dame Janet this week, so although POMO is over, zero rates are still with us, perhaps in perpetuity. The USD is in our view over-bought here, and 50% of DX is the despised Euro after all.<br /><br />Last Thursday we bought EWZ calls, selling them into Friday's rocket launch around lunchtime. This morning we were back to the same trade as punters sold Brazil into the abyss. Just keeping busy while you guys debate the End of Europe.<br /><br />RSX has got to the point where even oil plunges are barely moving the dial, nobody much left to sell. With two of the BRICs near 5 year lows, we might be setting up for a tradable low in the emerging markets. Do you fancy holding a 0.83% bund or having a punt on Gazprom yielding 6.2% or a utility like CIG that is probably going to be yielding 8-10%? [I know, I know, send the hate mail to the usual address.....] <br /><br />Probably no rush on these tarnished beauties as they are likely to be a big part of the "all the toys out of the pram" sale that happens every December for tax purposes. Last year that fire sale delivered a Smörgåsbord of delicious yield at bargain prices (REIT preferreds and munis), so a big thank you to all those clueless mugs.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11543687067266371982014-10-27T16:59:52.079+00:002014-10-27T16:59:52.079+00:00And I didn't completely miss the bottom thank ...And I didn't completely miss the bottom thank god Nico .. http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/a-market-post-mortem-and-view-of.html <br /><br />But felt I should show some allegiance to my 27th Oct call from a month ago. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19415357229991929772014-10-27T16:35:34.545+00:002014-10-27T16:35:34.545+00:00The low is always cheaper Nico. The low is always cheaper Nico. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42163793855249728072014-10-27T16:32:57.830+00:002014-10-27T16:32:57.830+00:00yo Pol so you trade on time and not price?
whatev...yo Pol so you trade on time and not price?<br /><br />whatever you get today, 1820 was cheaper<br /><br />Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75768509628838722072014-10-27T16:32:23.863+00:002014-10-27T16:32:23.863+00:00Record short interest in Japanese stocks
http://...Record short interest in Japanese stocks <br /><br />http://imgur.com/V6Xr9UPAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com