tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post9101550446684742643..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: How the Market Stole Christmas!Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger66125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16675477263008126212021-08-13T06:13:02.977+01:002021-08-13T06:13:02.977+01:00Very Good bro.
ดูหนังใหม่ชนโรง 2021
รีวิวหนังใหม่...Very Good bro.<br /><a href="https://movie22hd.com/" rel="nofollow">ดูหนังใหม่ชนโรง 2021 </a><br /><a href="http://movienewhit.com/" rel="nofollow">รีวิวหนังใหม่</a>The_Best_Moviehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06811489091929123091noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55393913467407495182014-12-23T15:06:47.155+00:002014-12-23T15:06:47.155+00:00Bucky reaches 90, had a feeling that was going to ...Bucky reaches 90, had a feeling that was going to happen, although it's interesting that FX traders chose the backward-looking Q3 GDP data (US was growing at 5% in August) over the contemporary data (durable goods orders down 0.7%). <br /><br />In FX, we are closing on a bunch of big figures, namely USDJPY 120 (already there), EURUSD 1,20, AUDUSD 0,80 and GBPUSD 1,55 (already there). Mr Bond didn't react very much to these data, though, so perhaps he knows something we don't about Q1 '15, having already voted on Q4 '14. Herr Bund is once again reflecting Grexit fears.<br /><br />2015 1H might see something a bit unexpected, a naughty combination of slower US activity (USD hurts big exporters and energy producers) and weak employment (regional recessions in TX, ND). Now add to the recipe a soupçon of European and Japanese recovery, an increase in margin rates, and even a slight pick up in inflation as Bucky reverses trend and a squeeze in oil and metals sees commodities catch a bid, and you have a recipe for indigestion for the über-bulls.<br /><br />Not the consensus position, we know, but nor was lower US rates throughout '14, which we predicted last December. Enjoy....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32439172974770939852014-12-22T00:46:39.495+00:002014-12-22T00:46:39.495+00:00hipper - yes - my working thesis here is that the ...hipper - yes - my working thesis here is that the 2's/10's will be flatten central, while 10's/30's are a closer call - if global growth does stall or contract, the end game would be for nearer term yields to race towards, as you said, the ocean floor, with some re-steepening - one step at a time, however.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22118323860058118062014-12-21T21:10:24.782+00:002014-12-21T21:10:24.782+00:00Interesting chart here, yield curve vs SP500 and s...Interesting chart here, yield curve vs SP500 and some notes on it:<br /><br />http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php<br /><br />During the 21st century, the last couple of declines in the stock market during 2000-2002 and late 2007 - early 2009 were accompanied by dropping short term yields, kind of like "reacting flexibly" for worsening short term economic conditions. And during the booms till late 2000 and during 2002-2007, the short term yields always went up to converge with the long term yield. So atleast in the last couple of occasions yield compression has been preceding recessions and they pretty much always occur during tightening cycles.<br /><br />However what's interesting is that since the boom from early 2009, the low end has stayed down, as if the economic conditions have stayed in a recession like environment. If it went like the couple of previous booms, short term should've already gone up. Now, the only thing that has been going on is the long end has been falling down.<br /><br />So with these factors could we assume that a beginning of the tightening will again cause yields to converge (and probably precede another near term recession)? Since short term has already collided with the ocean floor, could we assume that this time the long term yield will stay relatively put, while short term is going to do the heavy lifting?hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73124656731984879512014-12-20T20:05:40.342+00:002014-12-20T20:05:40.342+00:00washed - as long as the spread between bunds and 1...washed - as long as the spread between bunds and 10s is as wide as this there will be demand for USTs. Add in more global growth scares and a default or two (not Russia) and US bonds will remain bid in 2015, imo.<br /><br />2015 - the year of the speed bumps, potholes !! we are going to be in and out like Ronald Biggs.<br /><br />this group will be more than ready to comment from the peanut gallery when MM decides to pen his Annual 2015 Non-Predictions. Yes, the range of opinions here is quite interesting. LB is beginning to wish I hadn't made that non-prediction about DX not reaching 90....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29495927110297038982014-12-20T18:31:44.211+00:002014-12-20T18:31:44.211+00:00fully agree - whats weird to me is even very smart...fully agree - whats weird to me is even very smart people seem to be jumping ahead to that end point, especially on equities, and effectively saying, hey all adollar squeeze will do is prevent the fed from doing anything, so lets go load up on equities at all time highs. <br />Well, not so fast - the road to get there is replete with some fairly big potholes and speed bumps in the form of growth scares, dollar funding concerns, and even a potential EM default or two - if we start see a continuation of the dollar rally at the same time that US yields refuse to go out, I would be extremely wary of being long spoos for anything more than a short term move.<br />I keep coming back to owning US bonds 10+ - is it riskless? oh hell no - but if3 out of 4 possible states of the world point me to a trade that if anything is crowded the other way, I will take those odds all day long.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3259540433161779652014-12-20T03:32:58.685+00:002014-12-20T03:32:58.685+00:00We have had dollar squeezes before. They always pr...We have had dollar squeezes before. They always produce a slowing of the US economy and currency crises in emerging markets and are met with looser US monetary policy. This one will be no different.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39800608374393922182014-12-19T23:15:12.471+00:002014-12-19T23:15:12.471+00:00thanks to the shale revolution the US deficit cont...thanks to the shale revolution the US deficit continues to shrink so less dollars being supplied to the world via current a/c, no more dollars being supplied to the world via QE pushing US investors out in search of yield, and now capital is rushing back to US assets because it's the beacon of light in the global economy?!? what we are seeing play out is a dollar squeeze... look today: DXY, USTs, US stocks, all up..it is this capital flow, the rush back to US assets, that will cripple the EM complex. please read:<br />http://tinyurl.com/ktqh46wAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25188349661970337872014-12-19T19:13:24.850+00:002014-12-19T19:13:24.850+00:00WTI/XLE spread looks juicy. While everyone is loo...WTI/XLE spread looks juicy. While everyone is looking for the hidden outcome the status quo continues to perform. Maybe the long term effects of coordinated CB policy is not "multiple expansion" but a large reduction in ERP. You can get some pretty bullish-whacky (NPV of 4k+) numbers by seeing spoos as purely a yield vehicle with a sub-100bp ERP and trailing 5 year div growth rates. If you want to really want to make Excel barf, assume corps play along and buybacks get reallocated to divs. Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2632424687841286142014-12-19T19:01:28.316+00:002014-12-19T19:01:28.316+00:00"there might be a potential triple whammer wi..."there might be a potential triple whammer with the strong dollar, higher multiples and the potentially rising rates, that the flow is going to turn around. <br /><br />It's just a completely one sided trade at the moment, meaning that the US economy won't have very much room to start coughing for the trade to start unwinding."<br /><br />That, my friend, is extremely incisive thinking, and very much the point of my magazine cover post this morning. Of course, I am always early.<br /><br />After almost a week of watching EEM, BP, EWZ and RSX options while wearing Depends*, LB has decided to follow the example of our mentor and host and is now: OUT. Happy holidays to all.<br /><br />*not to be taken literally.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35171699331913694522014-12-19T18:07:30.512+00:002014-12-19T18:07:30.512+00:00New Fed paper out on decline in LFPR ...
"on...New Fed paper out on decline in LFPR ...<br /><br />"once USA employment returns to its LT<br />trend, it will grow much more slowly than in the past,<br />with employment gains of under 50k per<br />month"<br /><br />PDF format<br />http://t.co/u1kpR7XQbBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51389289139403196932014-12-19T17:36:54.605+00:002014-12-19T17:36:54.605+00:00hipper - if eurozone data hooks up sentiment on th...hipper - if eurozone data hooks up sentiment on the US economy is going to go from bullish to uber-bullish, since 'they are the ones dragging us down' which will keep the dollar argument very much alive on a relative basis, except now mostly expressed through risk on assets like small caps and spoos - very much like 1999, if I may say so - it may also set up a bear flattening on rates.<br />The REAL shock to the market, and one no one is prepared for, is a weakening of US data alongside with some real strengthening in EU and Asia - that would create some nasty surprises for recent trades de-jure. <br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78206356323487716262014-12-19T16:46:16.706+00:002014-12-19T16:46:16.706+00:00Uh oh, bucky making a run for it through his priso...Uh oh, bucky making a run for it through his prison cell ceiling @ 89.40, and the controversial trinity looking very lively as well. <br /><br />Maybe this effect actually is just the channel through which the "Euroglut" is relieving itself? I.e. German and other surplus companion savings want safe yield which they just can't get back home. And the US economy being what it is, atleast relatively strong to other ones, the outflow isn't big enough to offset the glut pouring in.<br /><br />Thinking of the contra strategy here, nobody expects anything from Europe for next year, right? So should in any likelihood the Eurozone make even the slightest surprise (from a lower level than before, even more likely), there might be a potential triple whammer with the strong dollar, higher multiples and the potentially rising rates, that the flow is going to turn around. <br /><br />It's just a completely one sided trade at the moment, meaning that the US economy won't have very much room to start coughing for the trade to start unwinding.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89902653187863454972014-12-19T16:21:16.318+00:002014-12-19T16:21:16.318+00:00The joy of Options during a squeeze, CV.... if you...The joy of Options during a squeeze, CV.... if you get it right, you can have it off as much as you want for a few days without having to get married.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31255317208689183122014-12-19T15:59:30.591+00:002014-12-19T15:59:30.591+00:00BP is a good bet here I think too LB, but if I was...BP is a good bet here I think too LB, but if I was a betting man I would "wait" for the double bottom. I have no view in Tullow Oil, but I am allergic to that thing, I have punted it before, but have been chopped to bits. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34096118511855448932014-12-19T15:59:28.971+00:002014-12-19T15:59:28.971+00:00BP is a good bet here I think too LB, but if I was...BP is a good bet here I think too LB, but if I was a betting man I would "wait" for the double bottom. I have no view in Tullow Oil, but I am allergic to that thing, I have punted it before, but have been chopped to bits. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45046550136032859722014-12-19T15:42:58.093+00:002014-12-19T15:42:58.093+00:00Tullow oil is my preferred play to BPTullow oil is my preferred play to BPPolemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59761004755059889712014-12-19T15:42:03.785+00:002014-12-19T15:42:03.785+00:00Quality, I will check that lot out later on.
BP i...Quality, I will check that lot out later on.<br /><br />BP is looking very strong today, wonder if it can fill that gap overhead to $40? I think someone is getting squeezed in the oil patch. Go on, my horse, pin yer ears back.....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46123821777918463532014-12-19T15:23:56.956+00:002014-12-19T15:23:56.956+00:00LB though you were going down a different path the...LB though you were going down a different path there for a moment....more along these lines.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ0218" rel="nofollow"> Europe Is A Dead Parrot </a><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNvZecHvKJs" rel="nofollow"> Sheikhs v Shale </a><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zYV-qYeWPkk" rel="nofollow"> Russia's Wounded Economy </a><br /><br />Have a great weekend.JohnLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16277794221279494655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7392810636149584282014-12-19T14:23:28.074+00:002014-12-19T14:23:28.074+00:00Awesome - just look at economist covers and do the...Awesome - just look at economist covers and do the opposite - let me go start shaking that money tree right away...<br />If this is such a great source of arbitrage shouldn't it have gone away by now? Just asking.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85334614623840733202014-12-19T13:10:51.363+00:002014-12-19T13:10:51.363+00:00LB doesn't know where the USD is going. He als...LB doesn't know where the USD is going. He also doesn't know what is going to happen to the price of oil, or to Russia. So he is going to seek wise counsel from those more intelligent than himself. In observance of the proud tradition of TMM's patented Magazine Cover Indicator, we offer the following thoughts and commentary today [warning: new readers should engage irony detector now!]<br /><br />First, the DX. This is an easy one. EVERYONE knows the answer to this. It is going to go up, b/c the Fed is going to hike, the US is growing but mainly b/c Europe is a dead parrot:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.economist.com/printedition/covers/2014-10-23/ap-e-eu-la-me-na-uk" rel="nofollow"> Europe Is A Dead Parrot </a><br /><br />Second, we move on to oil. Another easy one. EVERYONE knows the answer to this. It is going to go down, b/c the shale guys and the Sheikhs are engaging in a price war:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.economist.com/printedition/covers/2014-12-04/ap-e-eu-la-me-na-uk" rel="nofollow"> Sheikhs v Shale </a> <br /><br />Finally, Russia. Another easy one. EVERYONE knows the answer to this. It is going to go down, b/c the Russian economy is a wounded bear:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.economist.com/printedition/covers/2014-11-20/ap-e-eu-la-me-na-uk" rel="nofollow"> Russia's Wounded Economy </a><br /><br />Cor, guv this predictions business is easy. All you have to do is a bit of reading innit?<br /><br />[You may now disengage irony detector]<br /><br />Given the record of this indicator, it does make you think a bit, doesn't it?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44315292377038264042014-12-19T12:47:27.196+00:002014-12-19T12:47:27.196+00:00*In MM's deep menacing voice*
Don't feed ...*In MM's deep menacing voice*<br /><br />Don't feed the troll/scammer chaps ... <br /><br />;)CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60410310927255104042014-12-19T12:25:31.822+00:002014-12-19T12:25:31.822+00:00Dear Mark Brookly,
I am very interested in this lo...Dear Mark Brookly,<br />I am very interested in this loan. However, while the rest of the terms seem fine to me, the interest rate is a bit higher than I would have hoped. At the moment a nice lady, called Janet, is offering me an interest of less than 0.5%. Could you please match or improve from that and then maybe you have a chance to get my business.<br />Thanksthetanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13961245692973915802014-12-19T11:44:28.624+00:002014-12-19T11:44:28.624+00:00C- What could be a better class of scammer than il...C- What could be a better class of scammer than illuminati loans ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20106385328939212232014-12-19T09:50:45.592+00:002014-12-19T09:50:45.592+00:00C Says,
Jesus, whatever happened to the better cla...C Says,<br />Jesus, whatever happened to the better class of scammer. I declare I feel a little bit insulted.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com