tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8927726602449926045..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: When doves flyMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2202518144541173372016-03-30T21:26:09.859+01:002016-03-30T21:26:09.859+01:00The last word on La Paloma Blanca, this time from ...The last word on La Paloma Blanca, this time from Mish, who has a way with words:<br /><br /><a href="http://mishtalk.com/2016/03/29/measuring-the-effect-of-yellen-yap-ooh-wee-baby-i-sure-show-you-a-good-time/" rel="nofollow"> Measuring The Effect of Yellen Yap </a><br /><br />Oh well, there goes that cozy research position at the Fed. LB will have to soldier on at Hammock Capital Management.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86088303538147529792016-03-30T20:42:34.268+01:002016-03-30T20:42:34.268+01:00@abee "Janet's speech is confirmation of ...@abee "Janet's speech is confirmation of the US side of the agreement"<br /><br />So why the cacophony of disagreement from janet's henchmen? They were just pissed because they didn't get to stay at the mandarin oriental in shanghai?washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22143565116863194142016-03-30T20:14:41.200+01:002016-03-30T20:14:41.200+01:00I will continue to argue, as I have argued for the...I will continue to argue, as I have argued for the last month or so, that a tacit "detente" agreement is in place between the FOMC and PBOC. The Fed won't meaningfully ramp the dollar, and the PBOC won't meaningfully break the peg. Janet's speech is confirmation of the US side of the agreement, and the recent moves in the CNH (as well as the statements of Chinese officials) are confirmation of Chinese side. <br /><br />The big question in the months ahead centers on the European and Japanese responses to all this. So far it looks as though Mario has complied with this detente concept by focusing on credit easing and not interest rate easing. He is not pushing the DXY higher via a weaker EUR. The only wild card is Japan. What will they do on the 27th of April? I'll write more on that in the coming days. But as a preview I think they too will favor balance sheet led credit easing over a traditional beggar-thy-neighbor interest rate easing. <br /><br /><br />In addition, I will be writing something shortly on the amazing performance of our favorite trade for 2016 - Spoos and Blues. What Janet did yesterday was absolutely perfect for that trade. And as of this morning it is up nearly 9% YTD after seeing very little draw during the chaos of Jan/Feb<br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70560372412711339402016-03-30T18:08:18.822+01:002016-03-30T18:08:18.822+01:00Indeed LB; the Danish media was running a story ea...Indeed LB; the Danish media was running a story earlier this week about a teenage day trader who was killing it with his own proprietary tactical stock-picking model. A sign? <br /><br />What's interesting from a psycological point of view, though, is that while futures trading has allowed punters to lose their shirt with alarming speed for ages, the younglings seem to be particularly attracted to these triple levered ETF products. It won't end well, but there is perhaps a silver lining for the market as a whole. While transacting in futures through a semi-professional broker or a spread better is virtually impossible for the average retail punter due to the margin required not to get stopped out after two ticks, the levered ETFs offers a relatively easy and simple way to play the casinos. <br /><br />Essentially, Blackrock, ETFS et al have simply created ETF products for the small punter to play the game, and they are reaping the rewards accordingly. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90884127396666669182016-03-30T17:51:47.711+01:002016-03-30T17:51:47.711+01:00LB is a little mystified about two things.
First...LB is a little mystified about two things. <br /><br />First, why would La Paloma Blanca perceive the need to say ANYTHING at all in the current quiet market? The US economy didn't exactly need her to chase yields lower or depress the USD just at the moment. Curious, especially in light of the solid number from ADP today.<br /><br />Second, why would anyone find La Paloma Blanca's utterances yesterday surprising? What possible information did she convey that could move fixed income or equity markets? We have after all known where her dots were for some considerable time, and there is no indication this has changed.<br /><br />Btw, anyone ever wonder where the trolls and jbtfd'ers come from? Perhaps they are all hanging out as described here:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-millennials-looking-to-get-rich-or-die-tryin-off-one-of-wall-streets-riskiest-oil-plays-2016-03-30" rel="nofollow"> Millennial Day Traders Punting Triple ETFs - What Could Go Wrong? </a><br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22747272172169612482016-03-30T15:18:38.387+01:002016-03-30T15:18:38.387+01:00Ohh, yeah I get it now. Agree w CV on Q end. Thin...Ohh, yeah I get it now. Agree w CV on Q end. Think commods will trade off fundies and would guess that those who think output will ramp a bit due to higher prices will be proven correct - regardless of ccy.Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13861271442411078472016-03-30T14:47:19.556+01:002016-03-30T14:47:19.556+01:00Booger,
Fair point about the discount rate, but it...Booger,<br />Fair point about the discount rate, but it doesn't mean that these valuations can't persist for an extended period of time from here. Data is mixed, but demand for housing is stirring in the face of high rents, and all it would take is for housing to take the baton from oil and off we go again. Janet needs construction wages to replace what was lost last year in the oil patch. She won't see inflation until that trend is firmly established and Hillary is in the WH. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75974499547006702172016-03-30T14:33:09.940+01:002016-03-30T14:33:09.940+01:00BinT - fail to see your point bro - we are trading...BinT - fail to see your point bro - we are trading the market not the economy correct? <br /><br />After displaying the grace and coherence of a group of coked up chipmunks, the federales seem to be communicating that post dust settling they are as a group dovish, mostly because yellen never saw a rate she didn't want to cut - fine - put that in the box - the next issue on my docket therefore, is will they be allowed to stay in that mindset - in that sense the PCE disappointment a couple days ago was a lot more equity friendly than anything yellen said. What can change that? Payrolls - if its a barn burner markets will be gallinaceo truncum once more - plays somewhat into CV's quarter end observations - else, WTF knows there do seem to be a ton of shorts out there. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64743897960507702632016-03-30T14:24:31.649+01:002016-03-30T14:24:31.649+01:00@ Corey
The idea is that when equities go down, ...@ Corey<br /><br />The idea is that when equities go down, the Fed reacts dovishing, supporting stocks...thereby furnishing the market with a de facto put to guard against losses.<br /><br />Given the frequency with which Yellen has referenced the dollar and global developments, the FX analogue is that as the USD strengthens and hurts everyone (funny enough, weren't they complaining about $ weakness a few years ago?) , the Fed now reacts to counter USD strength...thereby providing the ROTW with a dollar call.<br /><br />And note that by ROTW, I don't refer to EZ and Japan, but rather China and the oil producers.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11297623179472346222016-03-30T14:21:33.676+01:002016-03-30T14:21:33.676+01:00http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/29/yellen-pushes-back-...http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/29/yellen-pushes-back-at-the-hawks-stocks-higher.html<br /><br />"Janet Yellen gave her audience limited lip service to 'baseline' projections and expectations for dual mandate improvement and rate normalization, but carpet-bombed her audience with possible downside caveats. In so doing, she created the distinct impression that she had little confidence in the Fed's baseline outlook,"<br /><br />...I think we are looking at the interplay between markets and the Fed wrongly. The markets, of course, want as much liquidity as possible so equities keep going up. What we're looking at is serial failure by the Fed. Their mandate isn't ZIRP, it really is just a normal economy. Now, at this late date, we see that the US and the globe can't tolerate (or at least central banks don't think so) a "normal" economy of unfettered rates. So we get NIRP, China implosions, openly socialist candidates in a capitalist country, and one and done here. This is the prolongation of the "This sucker's going down" thought, and with each Fed failure to allow normalization, it becomes more and more entrenched. (I use Fed failure, not because I discount the fiscal points, but because they embarked on this course by themselves, and sold it to us.)<br /><br />2 cnets..Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16337511784659186822016-03-30T14:18:54.080+01:002016-03-30T14:18:54.080+01:00This move has month/quarter end written all over i...This move has month/quarter end written all over it. I wouldn't be surprised to see a good sharp move lower on Friday and next week. If it goes out on a high, March will end up being a bumper month, and Q1 will just about be even-Steven; which will suit a lot of burnt PMs. <br /><br />Yellen's dovishness surprises me by its intensity, not so much by its existence. If that makes sense! Someone appears to have persuaded her that "overshooting" inflation to the upside is actually a good idea, and of course that the world is a very bad place as a whole. <br />CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37190669714927587812016-03-30T14:16:22.132+01:002016-03-30T14:16:22.132+01:00Pls explain "call on $" theory. Way I s...Pls explain "call on $" theory. Way I sees it is Fed is on hold and they/everyone believes they will raise later. But by the time "later" gets here there is always something to prevent them - well arguably the actual business cycle will probably be the next thing to prevent them which means $ down. As far as ECB/BOJ, until those nutjobs renounce negative rates, their policies are only going to strengthen their currencies, no?Coreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5686514623973431912016-03-30T13:52:29.017+01:002016-03-30T13:52:29.017+01:00.
i think the biggest mind fuck now would be a rev... .<br />i think the biggest mind fuck now would be a reversal in the USD....start of leg up<br />equites I'm sitting on some offside shorts in spoos and looking to nibble on some puts today and into quarter end- us equities are behaving as if this fed confusion is the same trade as QE...sensed a fair amount of panic yesterday with the scramble for IWM.. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8184837194915427832016-03-30T13:20:59.006+01:002016-03-30T13:20:59.006+01:00It would be fine if jbtfd added anything to the di...It would be fine if jbtfd added anything to the discussion, but to mention that we are still 25% long of some unknown "long quantity"? Does that really add anything to the discussion other than I told you so? Could this poor fool take 3 Bloomberg screens are find a point that might aide in investing? Does "I'm still long because I am" add anything to the discussion? And why isn't he 100% long his precious? Has he lost his mind? Jbtfd, jbtfd!<br /><br />Some are born to the twattish throne.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59703731585218728652016-03-30T13:16:35.717+01:002016-03-30T13:16:35.717+01:00MM - at the risk of being thrown off the board for...MM - at the risk of being thrown off the board for repeating myself, I keep hearing echoes of fall 1998, namely:<br /><br />1. Fed scared into dovishness because of global concerns - check<br />2. Commodity complex making EM the flash point - check<br />3. Dollar rally causing consternation in policy circles - check<br />4. Equity valuations stretched and the bull market being called DOA (retrospectively) by Druckenmiller - check<br />5. freshly minted MBAs citing startups as their most preferred destination - check<br />6. Airlines making booming profits - check<br /><br /><br />Whats next? Reunion tour for backstreet boys and n sync? <br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82835395648800839432016-03-30T13:12:20.528+01:002016-03-30T13:12:20.528+01:00Hey, at least jbtfd puts his "name" to h...Hey, at least jbtfd puts his "name" to his posts and has maintained some semblance of continuity, even if he only sings when he's winning. The anonymous trolls fixated with other people's P/Ls and/or central bank participation in equity markets are the proper twats. Either way, the policy is now twattishness = deletionMacro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58528950096855076472016-03-30T13:06:23.852+01:002016-03-30T13:06:23.852+01:00 Anonymous
jbtfd said...
Spooz threatening ... Anonymous <br /><br />jbtfd said...<br /><br /> Spooz threatening 2015 highs (as I predicted here a few weeks ago). Once again JBTFD works<br /><br /><br />Twat.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86334273831917910562016-03-30T12:24:33.380+01:002016-03-30T12:24:33.380+01:00@ Booger Given their forecasting track record for...@ Booger Given their forecasting track record for GDP, unemployment, inflation, and Fed funds, the notion that the FOMC has some super secret insight that no one else possesses stretches the bounds of credulity. If one wished to be unkind, they might submit that the Fed's concern is the strongest possible signal that things are about to take off, given their forecasting history...and not for the "magic beans" impact that a short end rally has on growth, as Yellen suggested in her speech.<br /><br />I do agree re: equity discount ratios.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47609620375861030612016-03-30T12:19:20.257+01:002016-03-30T12:19:20.257+01:00MM, I think we all rail about the inability to rai...MM, I think we all rail about the inability to raise rates. Everyone knows they should have started normalised in ... umm.. 2013? But the decision was made and we are where we are. I am beginning to think Yellen is an absolute genius compared to Bernanke and Greenspan. <br /><br />She is not raising into a slowdown and will not be accused of contributing to the inevitable recession. At least she doesn't purport to not being able to see overvaluation.<br /><br />I think we should not underestimate the Fed as possibly being the best leading indicator out there. Perhaps there is more to be concerned about than a minor Q1 GDP slowdown. <br /><br />Agree they are saying they are not hiking soon, possibly at all this year. Rate hike expectations may need to be hosed further so I don't think it is safe to be long dollars yet. <br /><br />It would be remarkable if we saw higher highs in Spoos with declining earnings and the current fundamental backdrop. The best risk reward in the next few weeks might be looking for a top to short in Spoos 2080-2100 area. Spoos may well peak a month or more before the dollar forms a bottom. The next leg up in the dollar may be based on risk aversion. Until now and then there could be a correction to 90-92 on DX. <br /><br />Oil will be interesting to see what comes out of the OPEC meeting. With the last 3 being disasterous for the oil price, I think they will have figured out that they need to announce a cut. In which case it could be a case of sell the news there. <br /><br />Yesterdays discussion on valuation: valuation critically depends on what you define as the long term discount rate for stocks. If you think inflation is not going to mean revert in the next 30 years then stocks are well priced. It does seem like insanity to discount the next 30 years of future cash flows based on the current 30 year rate, which is at 100 year lows. Like it was to discount stocks by the 1980's rate when inflation was at 100 year highs. Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16137328683757866542016-03-30T11:43:38.953+01:002016-03-30T11:43:38.953+01:00Jbtfd, u still at 25? Why not 100 ? You waiting fo...Jbtfd, u still at 25? Why not 100 ? You waiting for a breakout to all time highs ? Cause you dont sound like u r expecting a dipAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30915449959413184602016-03-30T11:37:35.483+01:002016-03-30T11:37:35.483+01:00Spooz threatening 2015 highs (as I predicted here ...Spooz threatening 2015 highs (as I predicted here a few weeks ago). Once again JBTFD works. You can forget macro ideas in a Central Bank manipulated market.jbtfdnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3759622773883383232016-03-30T11:37:29.768+01:002016-03-30T11:37:29.768+01:00@Pol,
Lets see what happen after the window dressi...@Pol,<br />Lets see what happen after the window dressing period. A top is not formed in one day usually. But yes, stocks love Jannet. Cityhunternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65431453932405690932016-03-30T11:07:26.408+01:002016-03-30T11:07:26.408+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9762962885613249492016-03-30T10:36:58.473+01:002016-03-30T10:36:58.473+01:00Blue and spoos it is again then Blue and spoos it is again then Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70643272854695018942016-03-30T09:48:26.345+01:002016-03-30T09:48:26.345+01:00To paraphrase the Rocky Horror Picture Show "...To paraphrase the Rocky Horror Picture Show "Dammit Jannet. Stocks love you"<br /><br />And to directly quote Dragon's Den "I'm out". Shorts stops triggered. I'm off for lunch. <br /><br />So much less stress without a position. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.com