tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8877403974543250520..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Interest Rates in WonderlandMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger74125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65812728029424538852016-02-03T07:16:12.419+00:002016-02-03T07:16:12.419+00:00Oil - Chris J Cook (@cjenscook) was writing about ...Oil - Chris J Cook (@cjenscook) was writing about the financialisation of oil a long time and how it would eventually unwind. Formerly of what became ICE exchange.<br /><br />2009: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5606<br />Oil: the Market is the Manipulation<br /><br />2012: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/02/chris-cook-the-oil-end-game.html<br />Chris Cook: The Oil End Game<br />Posted on February 27, 2012 by Yves Smith<br /><br />By Chris Cook, former compliance and market supervision director of the International Petroleum Exchange. Cross posted from Asia Times<br /><br />"As I have outlined in previous articles, the culprit for the high oil prices between 2009 and 2012 – with the exception of the speculative “spike” between March 2011 and June 2011 driven by Fukushima and Libyan price shocks – has been passive investment by risk-averse investors, which enabled producers to support oil prices at high levels.<br /><br />Much of this passive money underpinning the market and enabling producers to monetize inventory pulled out of the market in September 2011, and another wave pulled out in December 2011"<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13595914795569139752016-02-03T05:29:48.958+00:002016-02-03T05:29:48.958+00:00abee
you know we love each other but i beg to dif...abee<br /><br />you know we love each other but i beg to differ regarding oil - commos ramp up was ARTIFICIAL<br /><br />do you remember how rice futures doubled in January 2008 - yes, in one month<br /><br />all those wild swings on anything commo today<br /><br />it has nothing to do with supply and demand, all to do with idiots with excess leverage being squeezed out by some very heavy hands (IB and some partnering HF)<br /><br />do you remember the PEAK OIL imbeciles? where are they hiding now?? with their fancy theory that convinced everyone's mother that expensive oil was here to stay<br /><br />they are responsible for the trillion of oil debt today, talk about a collective illusion... look at British BP now, shot in both knee, you'd think its management would be uber smart and see through speculation but hell, not.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77409759842946358462016-02-03T05:11:31.152+00:002016-02-03T05:11:31.152+00:00Kuroda yesterday: “If we judge that existing measu...Kuroda yesterday: “If we judge that existing measures in the toolkit are not enough to achieve (our) goal, what we have to do is to devise new tools. I am convinced that there is no limit to measures for monetary easing.”Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83539586286373800272016-02-03T05:00:28.330+00:002016-02-03T05:00:28.330+00:00"Brown Brothers Harriman currency strategists..."Brown Brothers Harriman currency strategists calculated that the Kuroda's new negative rate will only apply to between ¥10 trillion ($82.4 billion) and ¥30 trillion of the more than ¥250 trillion in reserves held by the BOJ."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61619975920000147252016-02-03T04:13:24.158+00:002016-02-03T04:13:24.158+00:00Well they don't want to 'tax' the mums...Well they don't want to 'tax' the mums and dads ...<br />Report from Nikkei:<br />"The planned March sale of 10-year Japanese government bonds through banks to retail investors, municipalities and others will be canceled amid expected below-zero yields following the Bank of Japan's recent move to adopt negative interest rates."<br /><br />They had already previously done this for 2yr and 5yr notes, so now all sales will end to these investors. <br /><br />Stay long USTs and other "high-yielders"NoEnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36832527779041961652016-02-03T04:00:07.410+00:002016-02-03T04:00:07.410+00:00the quality of the blog posts is second to none in...the quality of the blog posts is second to none in the blogosphere (or anywhere!) i wonder how much time do you spend a day on them on average? yours- long time reader.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49898092748183585532016-02-03T02:53:53.613+00:002016-02-03T02:53:53.613+00:00http://www.coppolacomment.com/2016/01/japans-negat...http://www.coppolacomment.com/2016/01/japans-negative-rates-china-connection.html<br /><br />Argues that Japan's neg rate scheme is nothing more than a disguised competitive exchange rate devaluation, explicitly structured to have little impact on banks or incentives to lend.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6861246869992882352016-02-03T02:09:42.305+00:002016-02-03T02:09:42.305+00:00The Nikkei225 is down 570 points (3.2%) ...The Nikkei225 is down 570 points (3.2%) ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10918518932216906712016-02-03T01:42:08.021+00:002016-02-03T01:42:08.021+00:00At the end of 2014, Japan’s net foreign assets — t...At the end of 2014, Japan’s net foreign assets — the sum of all foreign assets held by Japan, minus the value of all domestic assets owned by foreigners — stood at nearly $942 billion, placing Japan among the world’s largest owners of foreign assets. Still a safe haven?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19359066979063313332016-02-03T01:08:09.503+00:002016-02-03T01:08:09.503+00:001Yr Tbills 0.455% and 6Month Tbills 0.45% almost t...1Yr Tbills 0.455% and 6Month Tbills 0.45% almost trade on top of each-other<br /><br />"Bernanke says Fed likely to add negative interest rates to recession-fighting tool kit"<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-says-fed-likely-to-add-negative-rates-to-recession-fighting-toolkit-2015-12-15Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28889617469143725352016-02-03T00:57:47.515+00:002016-02-03T00:57:47.515+00:00NICO I agree that ib and stupid pension diversific...NICO I agree that ib and stupid pension diversification into commodities as an asset class probably helped push oil up but I think it's more a function of how markets work, especially under perfect competition. Financial markets are all made at the margin. And whem we needed more oil, it cost a boat load more than what we were used to. But with enough capital, technology and time market forces found a lot more supply and the market response has been brutal, as it is with commodities. However the situation with steel and lots of other base metals is mugh worse imo. <br /><br />This market is trading heavy. Feels like it just wants to dump. Funny how 2 years ago how everyone was calling for the yen to devalue to something like 200. Now it's gonna strengthen. Who knows. But shorting Europe just feels right from price action. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76030206208324502032016-02-03T00:57:06.679+00:002016-02-03T00:57:06.679+00:00NICO I agree that ib and stupid pension diversific...NICO I agree that ib and stupid pension diversification into commodities as an asset class probably helped push oil up but I think it's more a function of how markets work, especially under perfect competition. Financial markets are all made at the margin. And whem we needed more oil, it cost a boat load more than what we were used to. But with enough capital, technology and time market forces found a lot more supply and the market response has been brutal, as it is with commodities. However the situation with steel and lots of other base metals is mugh worse imo. <br /><br />This market is trading heavy. Feels like it just wants to dump. Funny how 2 years ago how everyone was calling for the yen to devalue to something like 200. Now it's gonna strengthen. Who knows. But shorting Europe just feels right from price action. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11644945459809970982016-02-03T00:56:43.918+00:002016-02-03T00:56:43.918+00:00Might we see a new all-time high on TLT before Apr...Might we see a new all-time high on TLT before April Fools?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80946699607250159412016-02-03T00:40:12.655+00:002016-02-03T00:40:12.655+00:00The argument about low interest rates leading to l...The argument about low interest rates leading to lower inflation via expectation was done by J. Cochrane and a couple other right wing economist bloggers. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61658451553950724462016-02-02T23:01:34.145+00:002016-02-02T23:01:34.145+00:00Really interesting point on bank NIMs. No doubt an...Really interesting point on bank NIMs. No doubt another one of those unintended consequences, along with NPL rises in PIIGS. NPL rise just might be related to the idea that low rates really did nothing in terms of employment or aggregate demand growth IMO. The lowering unemployment could be related to people dropping out of unemployment status and creation of low wage jobs which might be 70-80% paid through public finances. Another thing with these rather closed economies in the case of the housing market is that they are getting saturated. When rents are tied up to housing prices (which in turn tied up to housing supply scarcity) and not other stuff like wages or employment, living costs will turn into a major drag for the general economy through lower household net income.<br /><br />The ugly duckling mREITs suddenly turned into a shining star, most likely related to deteriorating hike expectations. The steepener would still feel better for the long term even though they might gain some book value for now, since in the end that's what they are, income vehicles. And is it already too late to go all in TLT?hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62292469570165047462016-02-02T22:58:30.377+00:002016-02-02T22:58:30.377+00:00Mario is worried about Deutsche Bank... DB is as o...Mario is worried about Deutsche Bank... DB is as opaque as China on a smog day<br /><br />last year i said European banks are kaput and everyone laughedNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81193331747281188712016-02-02T22:35:27.817+00:002016-02-02T22:35:27.817+00:00nirp isn't going to do anything for europe whe...nirp isn't going to do anything for europe when fins there are running 10-15% npls (italy). the entire european banking system is kaput at the moment and no amount of rate cuts is going to fix that. not quite sure why the market is so fixated on China and has completely ignored the more immediate threat at hand. Mario is eventually gonna have to buy bank debt to prop up the system. the recent accord with the EC isn't going to bring out distressed buyers the way its currently structured imo. negative volatilitynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78477773602572989212016-02-02T20:23:04.672+00:002016-02-02T20:23:04.672+00:00My internet picked a fine day to pack it in....My internet picked a fine day to pack it in....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49885938762788745552016-02-02T20:17:04.794+00:002016-02-02T20:17:04.794+00:00anon7:53
apologies to your daughter for the F wo...anon7:53 <br /><br />apologies to your daughter for the F word. <br /><br />Regarding asylum abroad history has shown the diaspora that left Japan to take a chance in other counties is highly despised.<br />Japanese are incredibly racist and proud of their unicity. Ask any 'nikkei' who made it in Brazil (or Peru or even the US) how poorly they are welcome whenever they return to motherland. Treated as treators, no less for Japanese are nationalistic beyond belief. Read the pamphlets of Toshio Montoya when you find time (under pen name of Meiji Fuji) they are a good example of Japanese sake sorry, psyche. Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49150748962980612762016-02-02T20:03:23.225+00:002016-02-02T20:03:23.225+00:00Econ 200 Money and Banking
Revised Edition. Chapt...Econ 200 Money and Banking<br /><br />Revised Edition. Chapter 5 Quiz<br /><br />What is the purpose of a Central Bank?<br /><br />A: To create excess reserves for its constituents.<br /><br />What is the basis of modern monetary policy?<br /><br />A: To penalize said constituents for holding created excess reserves.<br /><br />Why do Central Banks raise the IOER?<br /><br />A: To create a pool of funds to pay the future penalty with.<br /><br />https://contrariancorner.com/2016/02/01/econ-200/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78192903661759169522016-02-02T20:02:14.207+00:002016-02-02T20:02:14.207+00:00"The global financial system is benchmarked t..."The global financial system is benchmarked to a myth. A ghost rate. A rate that exists only in the minds of the participants that in their most private moments know they could not fund at. A rate that were it to quake governments from developed and mercantilist nations would jump to stabilize. The global term structure of rates is based on a sanctioned fraud. But somehow it works."<br />https://contrariancorner.com/2016/01/29/16490/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69338729597616655482016-02-02T20:01:49.616+00:002016-02-02T20:01:49.616+00:00Nico . you are on a roll!
Great material enough ...Nico . you are on a roll! <br />Great material enough recently for your own blog Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41876944300526452072016-02-02T19:59:39.671+00:002016-02-02T19:59:39.671+00:00after all that nonsense let's remember that bi...after all that nonsense let's remember that big savings in energy cost will help households deleverage further. Highly funny that the best news ever (falling energy + common prices) would make the whole world panic - what the hell is wrong with deflation?<br /><br />and one simple question that is NOT doing the round: why the heck did we pay so much for energy, for so long? it looks like Goldman and Co. which was given permission to 'trade' oil in the 90s and squeeze futures from $10 all the way to $200 (target) no, $148, finally succumbed to the Law of demand and supply<br /><br />the episode of massive obnoxious wealth transfer from the whole world to a happy few Saudis and neighbors has finally been reversed, it was about time. This is the biggest story of world economics for the last decade, much bigger than the FANG bullshit. <br /><br />Lastly, the diversification investments made worldwide by Saudis Qataris etc who could not believe their luck above $60 crude were absolutely brilliant. They now own real estate/corporate treasures and let's face it, with the help of Goldman etc WE gave it to THEM.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86435584063568720172016-02-02T19:54:33.871+00:002016-02-02T19:54:33.871+00:00algoman. I just bought a billion, feels offered. algoman. I just bought a billion, feels offered. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89165808915549375882016-02-02T19:53:17.426+00:002016-02-02T19:53:17.426+00:00"All those years i thought China would bring ..."All those years i thought China would bring us down, but their little neighbor is doing its fair share to fuck everything up."<br /><br />There you go with the potty mouth again. My twin 13 year girls read this blog.<br /><br />Tell me, how many Japanese citizens sought asylum in other countries? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com