tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8867194878690440439..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Two Wobbles and a HopeMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48438912806567559732012-04-17T15:33:07.777+01:002012-04-17T15:33:07.777+01:00C says'
Tradebot you need to overcome some sha...C says'<br />Tradebot you need to overcome some shall we call it bias.<br />"chavs","thickos" etc etc. These are to be kind stereotypical comments that don't belong in any serious consideration of the economic possibilities for the UK.<br />I've travelled all over and done business all over and as a generic people are people wherever warts and all.No country I have found has a monopoly on the attributes required to buidl an economy ,but they do at any given time have advantages ,or disadvantages dependent upon the hand on the wheel and policy choices that are being made.<br />I happen to see the UK to be an outperformer at least in Europe for a variety of reasons some of which I have mentioned.<br />Re the public sector ,I know more about that than I wish to.My comment is this.Chnaging is like steering an oil tanker.It doesn;t happen pvernight ,but just because the average chap in the street doesn;t see it doesn;t mean it isn't happeining. It is ,it's an incremental process and it's moving in the right direction despite the "chavs" and "thickos".<br /><br />Finally, don't just argue with me do so with the IMF because they have received my consideration on the matter and now posted their agreement (tongue through cheek).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87156642318010086852012-04-16T12:07:19.715+01:002012-04-16T12:07:19.715+01:00well so far market digresses with my "avoid U...well so far market digresses with my "avoid UK like a plague" as the GBPeso hit 18 month high against EUR. Still that is a toilet paper vs toilet paper trade , I prefer to avoid the debate entirely as I hate and loathe both currencies.<br /><br />Macro view for UK is underperform as far as eye can see - country is populated by semi-illiterate thickos who are leveraged up to eyeballs. Political leadership is incapable to reign in the public sector largesse and there will be no escape. All roads lead to Athens , it is just that some countries travel slower than others.<br />My view always has been that we have been in long term decline since Queen Vic was running the Empire and respite given by the Thatch was just a blip. But that joyful discussion is pub talk , no good trade can come out it.<br /><br />Not so sure about FTE under the Hollande regime, I would prefer DTEGF.Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8246831717268396542012-04-13T18:49:44.002+01:002012-04-13T18:49:44.002+01:00TEF. FTE. DTEGF. Another one... I am pretty sure t...TEF. FTE. DTEGF. Another one... I am pretty sure these companies will be here in a year or two. I even think that the respective large banks in Spain, France and Germany will probably survive, but bank common stock is not something I want to own (b/c you can bet they will be issuing more of it). Mind you, there are limits. You can have all of Italy and Greece, and I'll keep my barge pole.<br /><br />There are quite a few preferred stocks in the US that are worth a look, especially now that the US corporate bond market is less attractive. Believe me, if you can make 5, 6 or even 8% a year for doing nothing this decade you will end up being an exceedingly happy camper.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70349799541186046802012-04-13T18:33:28.794+01:002012-04-13T18:33:28.794+01:00FTE, hell yes. Telecoms are known to be unusually ...FTE, hell yes. Telecoms are known to be unusually dependent on short-term debt, but one would have to say that a SUBSTANTIALLY higher cost of borrowing is probably being priced in to many European equities. At some point, these costs may fall again, and these equities revert to being cash cows.<br /><br />It seems fairly apparent that (as the gentleman just mentioned) there are people out there who are now sadly being forced to liquidate stuff, even from the widows and orphans segments of the portfolio. When others are offering us high yielding securities at fire sale prices it would seem ungrateful of us not to take advantage.<br /><br />Nobody knows what will happen on Monday or next week, but we have been dipping a few toes in the water (wearing the Kevlar boots of course). In my Knife Catching career I have bought T (2009), MRK (2010) and NZT (2011) and have since made more than enough for a few pints. TEF and FTE may well go lower, but we think they will survive intact.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86719695547744202062012-04-13T17:16:53.832+01:002012-04-13T17:16:53.832+01:00LB,
What about FTE vs TEF? Any thoughts?LB,<br />What about FTE vs TEF? Any thoughts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34343053264005133562012-04-13T16:32:23.593+01:002012-04-13T16:32:23.593+01:00C SAYS'
From my perch in the North of England ...C SAYS'<br />From my perch in the North of England which of course means I am not a foreigner ,or indeed Little Johnny I would say I understand fully the interplay of regional differences in the Uk and trust me on this I almost certainly know a lot more about the interplay of London and the International markets,particularly the long standing property influences.<br /><br />The bottomline is,everyday outside my cave I see plenty of evidence that the Uk situation is already not as dire as some people believe it to be and that is before certain positives start to flow in their direction. My emphasis by the way is never on 'where the ball is' ,but 'where it is going to be' and in economic terms I fully expect people to start feeling much better before they feel worse.<br /><br />Most of the nifty Hy equity I referred to are of global (duh) need I have added that ? Even the one's that are not though are benefitting from positives and indeed are sufficiently cash happy and in sectors that have cashcow like properties. Hence, comparing these to alternatives in any form of cash or bond yielding much less leaves me wondering when the lobotomy was carried out.<br /><br />Europe coudl well ne a tipper for the UK just as it could for any country that has a siignificant trading relationship with it,but against that we at least have central banks outside of Europe who to date have shown willingness to to deal with the kind of consequences that Europe might bring about.<br />As for dear old Merv ,he may not know inflation from his arse,but the CRB has been well under water and if oil/petrol cost moderate at all we will be holding a very strong hand for easier input costs and more optimistic outlooks for consumer spending.<br /><br />None of the above puts' me in the bull camp,but it is more than sufficient to put me tactically in the postion mentioned earlier.<br /><br />On the basis of "YOURS YOURS YOURS" you better believe it son.The main thing in my life that made the most money was always taking what other people couldn't afford to holdand making it "MINE MINE MINE".Point made.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50845548891257986692012-04-13T15:51:26.916+01:002012-04-13T15:51:26.916+01:00Perhaps the reason why TMM doesn't see the sys...Perhaps the reason why TMM doesn't see the systemic problem is because the problem is too systemic.<br /><br />http://edwardhughtoo.blogspot.com.es/2012/04/my-wolfson-essay.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-360076906462405442012-04-13T15:20:57.060+01:002012-04-13T15:20:57.060+01:00Siemens at a 4% yield, or US 10y govies at 2%?
TEF...Siemens at a 4% yield, or US 10y govies at 2%?<br />TEF at a 14% yield or US high yield at 7.3%?<br /><br />Even to a lover of USTs, one has to ask whether this market is accurately pricing these risks...? Nobody expects the dividends to remain at these levels (indeed this is being priced in), but even a 50% lower dividend would be superior yield.<br /><br />IF we view LTRO as the analog of TARP, then not only is this market not going back into the abyss, but also we can expect additional CB interventions. How much pain we can expect before the ECB acts once again is the big unanswered question.<br /><br />I am staying largely safe for now but you'd be blind not to see some of the opportunities ahead.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13375997965665876292012-04-13T14:32:11.000+01:002012-04-13T14:32:11.000+01:00Old Johnny Foreigner always makes the mistake of t...Old Johnny Foreigner always makes the mistake of thinking London = UK<br /><br />Agreed, but what about South Shields and Kirkby? In a similar vein, Mayfair resident Henry Hedgefund tends to think the US is booming after a jolly shopping weekend with Pippa Pension Manager in Manhattan.<br /><br />TEF making new lows this morning on Spanish bank news. LB considering donning the Kevlar once more.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72943619573847289812012-04-13T14:13:38.948+01:002012-04-13T14:13:38.948+01:00oh and on TEF and telcos in general , I am not an ...oh and on TEF and telcos in general , I am not an expert but market might be overly bearish on relative value terms to other utilities. Voice is dead as dodo, but I can see data driving demand as far as eye can see, given the 4G is network is "must" for all the new gadgets (iPads, smartphones etc). Smartphone wars should also allow them some purchasing power when it comes to handsets. However, the sell off probably will accelerate when they start cutting their outrageously generous dividends to pay off debt/capex for 4G. Keeping an eye on this one...another 20% off and it is a good long term value play.Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40438352452115839302012-04-13T14:01:48.000+01:002012-04-13T14:01:48.000+01:00Not so sure about the UK... I am more glass half e...Not so sure about the UK... I am more glass half empty when it comes down to the UK.<br /><br />Old Johnny Foreigner always makes the mistake of thinking London = UK. FTSE 100 is not FTSE 250 either, so I would definitely prefer global large caps of FTSE 100 over FTSE 250.<br /><br />Negatives outweigh the positives (ie. NOT Europe) mainly because private sector deleveraging process has LONG to go. If the manic house price mania subsides even a bit in Bubble Town, the picture even gets worse. Rest of the country is public sector dependent chav infested hell hole, making real cuts in public spending practically impossible. Despite tough talk , Boy George has not actually managed to do sweet FA when it comes to cutting the defict - Much Ado About Nothing.<br /><br />In addition, no way inflation will subside - when it comes down to inflation projections Merv the Swerve out of his tiny mind. Eventually the GBP will run into a wall... it is kind of UK tradition to have a sterling crisis in every 20-30 years or so.... and we are due!<br /><br />FTSE 100, yes - good global stocks. Rest is YOURS YOUR YOURS.Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77653380290290266532012-04-13T11:49:48.450+01:002012-04-13T11:49:48.450+01:00C says'
Before I close the door on the week le...C says'<br />Before I close the door on the week let me say some of the positives I keep on the desk in front of me.<br />In the UK of cousre because I don't get out much!<br /><br />1.Corporate taxes falling ,tick<br />2.Personal allowances lifting bottom end (marginal) spending power,tick<br />3.Easing off of infaltionary pressures of prior years extending consumer spending choices ,tick<br />4.Major events coming up bringing in more external moneyflows,tick<br />5.Relative position of being neither Europe nor US,tick<br />6.Pretty nifty choice of high yielders in equities that to me look a solid as one can expect in an uncertain world,tick<br /><br />I'm not an out and out bull because I still see an economic world that is pulled between indebtedness wherever it is held (public or private) and an attempt to inflate out of it that actually can continue for as long as it is needed regardless of the crap printed to the contrary.<br />This has kept us nicely range bound with a range sufficiently wide to always find opportunities with risk being relatively easy to control. Long may it continue!!<br />Have a good weekend.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44029094840143626842012-04-13T11:11:54.798+01:002012-04-13T11:11:54.798+01:00RE: 'rate reset preferred' products.
I ca...RE: 'rate reset preferred' products.<br /><br />I can only pray that nobody in Europe is stupid enough to try one of these!<br /><br />As soon as your soverign rates spike at the wrong time (i.e. a reset date), your private sector is in serious danger of locking itself into nasty unsustainable coupons right?<br /><br />Canada might be all right for now, but is it really worth the long term risk just to shave a few BPS off your borrowing rates?Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30061425779800285392012-04-13T07:08:34.776+01:002012-04-13T07:08:34.776+01:00c SAYS'
Apparently ,Lil Kim couldn't get i...c SAYS'<br />Apparently ,Lil Kim couldn't get it up so that's good news to girls everywhere !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64888177130838178902012-04-13T00:31:54.309+01:002012-04-13T00:31:54.309+01:00Apparently, NK rocket failed , quick, bring out th...Apparently, NK rocket failed , quick, bring out the doves!!Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48968014587878871122012-04-12T20:34:16.110+01:002012-04-12T20:34:16.110+01:00c SAYS'
re credit and hy my comments were not ...c SAYS'<br />re credit and hy my comments were not in any form a suggestion to buy ,but a response to where moneyflow had gone post he New Year.<br />Personally I used that moneyflow agsint my buys last year when 'doom' was amongst us and I sold into it the other week and like you I expect to have better buying prices when I go back to it.<br />When moneyflow is as strong as that and as late to take the risk I know amongst it will be enough weak hands to get a shake out.I'll wait for that and if it's right with my views at the time then I will buy from them what they can't hold.We call it trading !!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28864655449878122932012-04-12T18:14:25.368+01:002012-04-12T18:14:25.368+01:00All fair comment. It's not a bank, but it'...All fair comment. It's not a bank, but it's not immune to the cost of money or to program selling of anything with an Iberian flavor. LB hasn't gone broke on previous Kevlar projects like NZT, but this is one of those "one toe at a time" trades, not both feet at once.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21230779749408458052012-04-12T17:28:58.621+01:002012-04-12T17:28:58.621+01:00I havent looked at TEF in a while but here is my g...I havent looked at TEF in a while but here is my general thesis on the stock (and most of the street at the time). Brazil is growing but rate is slowing. Pressure on high margin wirelines in Spain and in mobile not abating for another couple of years. Add into that a levered balance sheet and management who refuses to cut the dividend (not sure latley) and its kinda like GE 2008. It wont go bust but you can still lose a lot of money bottom picking it<br /><br />Obviously most of this is factored into the price but to say TEF is without risks is a foolishabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6627376292265833072012-04-12T16:39:51.662+01:002012-04-12T16:39:51.662+01:00I'm not a single stocks man, but TEF does look...I'm not a single stocks man, but TEF does look like an innocent bystander in Iberia drive by shooting. I guess when you make up 20% of IBEX , you are done for when ppl macro hedge.. that is what you get when "risk management" in institutions force decisions on business based on what they read in Daily Mail.<br /><br />I don't know much about telecoms or fundamentals and if things are cheap they are usually cheap for a reason, but TEF is more exposed to LatAM than Spain so risk reward at these levels look good if you can hold until LTRO3 kicks in. After all, how low can it go? :)<br /><br />In my case, usually zero...:)Tradebotnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78727154148010062952012-04-12T15:28:30.357+01:002012-04-12T15:28:30.357+01:00c SAYS'
No worries son I'm just the kind ...c SAYS'<br /><br />No worries son I'm just the kind of anally retentive guy who misses no detail,but walks into every other lamp post on Bond St.<br /><br />LB has that problem when in London, mainly b/c he is distracted by Top Totty when hammered after a few pints.<br /><br />My GDX and TEF punts are working out. As of now, we are expecting a slow grind to SPX 1400. Marginally in the JSTFR camp now, not JBTFD.<br /><br />LB thinks the comments about watching credit are well taken. HY might be attractive but we want to see a little more reward for our risk before we return to that watering hole.<br /><br />TMM unquestionably correct in their China chart calls of late. Good on yer, lads.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38079099368336307922012-04-12T15:15:43.324+01:002012-04-12T15:15:43.324+01:00@Ab C,
Good to find another Cdn here. Why do you ...@Ab C,<br /><br />Good to find another Cdn here. Why do you think Oil majors like SU lagg Oil(commodity)? I know gold miners do for cost of extration reasons etc.? ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13254895071086869142012-04-12T14:10:55.436+01:002012-04-12T14:10:55.436+01:00another rate reset article for the canadian banks
...another rate reset article for the canadian banks<br /><br />http://www.financialpost.com/opinion/story.html?id=00c37c14-8cc6-451d-af69-b1a031fdf541abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64785390333756277262012-04-12T14:02:17.684+01:002012-04-12T14:02:17.684+01:00sorry, rate "reset" prefferd.. lots of c...sorry, rate "reset" prefferd.. lots of canadian co's using it<br /><br />http://investor.riocan.com/Investor-Relations/News/News-Details/default.aspx?PressReleaseId=89592415-3a1a-49ff-8436-a4268cf3172c<br /><br />fair enough C'. The argument has diverged from the main point of tops vs money flow. I just think equities are the hated asset class, under-allocated but still have a strong bid underneath. Perhaps the money flow argument is incomplete but I do not think it is erroneous<br /><br />how one makes decisions in this business is always through a mix inferences, hard data and judgement. The facts are never clear until sometime later. <br /><br />But you have a sharp eyeabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49330645494416323592012-04-12T13:48:47.816+01:002012-04-12T13:48:47.816+01:00"rate rest preferred" is a new one on me..."rate rest preferred" is a new one on me at this juncture ,but I will look it up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75027233695279974372012-04-12T13:46:31.626+01:002012-04-12T13:46:31.626+01:00c SAYS'
Abee,
Re your seasonal argument I woul...c SAYS'<br />Abee,<br />Re your seasonal argument I would have to respond ( ;) ) by suggesting that if your argument was to apply then why wuld TMM have need to model the PMI to remove seasonality? In other words it would imply that both data sets can be 'wild' subject to seasonality .<br /><br />Re the monetrain we have now diverged to not one argument (money missed the train) ,but a favourite trick of mine,the introduction of another rason d'etre ,that is "parabolic move" and how tops are formed. I actually agree with the latter ona probability basis tops tend to form from failed retests as moneyflow dries up to take on more risk hence their tendency to curve/round. We see more of them than a straight crescendo failure.<br />As I say on a probability basis I would usually lean towards the latter myself,but as I say this is a completely different issue from the money train argument which I don't believe to be the case here.<br />Oh well,here comes another lamp post !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com