tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8750019299611334548..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Eight points about yesterday's postMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45553550448270205822007-02-07T16:19:00.000+00:002007-02-07T16:19:00.000+00:00I'm too dumb to do both. Or, I don't do commodity...I'm too dumb to do both. Or, I don't do commodity trading since I lost my shirt in Sugar in 1972. Or, what little cash I risk likes to go long no matter what I try to do. <br /><br />:) Take your pick. OldVetAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57232830655043574782007-02-07T14:49:00.000+00:002007-02-07T14:49:00.000+00:00we're shorting the Yen and buying Japanese stocks ...we're shorting the Yen and buying Japanese stocks Old Vet<br /><br />you can do both by the way ... hello Old Vet ..... helloAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23010910379975802652007-02-07T11:19:00.000+00:002007-02-07T11:19:00.000+00:00While you guys are shorting the Yen as a currency,...While you guys are shorting the Yen as a currency, I'm delighted with the weak yen and buying equities on Nikei. Talk about good news/bad news. They weaker the yen the higher exports will go, and the more profit Japanese companies will make. <br /><br />I'd be a lot more "Calvinist" about the Yen if I knew the govt of Japan were intervening to suppress the Yen, but hardly see how they can raise rates until there's positive inflation in the economy. <br /><br />Funny, but the true "Calvinists" are the Japanese consumers who produce more than they consume and maintain a rigid frugality.<br /><br />OldVetAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34702806289507041082007-02-06T16:11:00.000+00:002007-02-06T16:11:00.000+00:00the Yen will rally on Friday and Monday after Euro...the Yen will rally on Friday and Monday after Euro officials complain about its strength<br /><br />and then , we will all short it some more <br /><br />the problem is not the Yen per se , it's the Euro which is extremely overvalued.... the ECB will be on hold for the rest of the year as economic figures report weaker than expectationsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39527682343472762112007-02-06T16:08:00.000+00:002007-02-06T16:08:00.000+00:00the Yen is overvalued
the economy is weakening an...the Yen is overvalued<br /><br />the economy is weakening and the debt is risingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73827033330951560212007-02-06T13:06:00.000+00:002007-02-06T13:06:00.000+00:00As you can imagine, I concur with most of what you...As you can imagine, I concur with most of what you have said here.<br /><br />The beauty of being a Cassandra is that her forecasts are not, by definition, believed by the ignorant masses. As such it is impossible to disprove a Cassandra's forecasts of doom ex-ante.<br /><br />A more appropriate epithet for commentators of this nature is 'financial Calvinists,' who ascribe a degree of seeming immorality to market positions with which they disagree.<br /><br />And like their 16th century namesake, most appear to brook no dissent from 'heretics.'<br /><br />Whenever someone calls you a 'greedy fool' or similar on the basis of an investment position, you can probably rest assured that he/she is a financial Calvinist.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19650338954284158272007-02-06T11:50:00.000+00:002007-02-06T11:50:00.000+00:00Cassandra is typical of many yen bulls i.e. always...Cassandra is typical of many yen bulls i.e. always predicting doom and gloom 1998 style. I would guess the username was chosen on purpose.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra<br /><br />It seems to me that contrarianism is rife in the FX market. Everyone is guessing and counter-guessing each other. Its ironic that market players bemoan the lack of trends in currencies yet try to fade the one consistent trend out there (yen weakness). I find it fascinating that the same people who refuse to buy USD/BRL calls because of the risk reversal and forward points are the same people who seem to have no problem buying USD/JPY puts despite the risk reversal and the forward points. Similarly when yen volatility came lower they all shouted that we should be buying yen calls. WRONG. This is when you load up on yen puts because for the first time in ages yen vol is unlikely to go much lower if the yen sells off. Indeed vol might actually go slightly higher.<br /><br />1) Of course the European politicians will make noise about yen weakness ahead of G7 and say that it will be discussed at the meeting. Its political game play to keep their voters happy. But this is how I imagine the conversation at G7 will go. Europeans: "we are unhappy about yen weakness". Japanese: "So?" Americans: "Whatever!". Hence I would be surprised if they could make a joint statement about yen weakness.<br />2) The Japanese are terrified of hiking rates too early and snuffing out their economic recovery. Why on earth would they trigger a sharp appreciation in the yen?<br />3) The Japanese haven't intervened to sell yen in a few years. The yen is this weak on its own.<br />4) Market corrections rarely occur when the majority of people are anticipating them<br />5) Whilst I appreciate that the longer a trend is in place the bigger the potential correction/reversal will be. Strong trends do not end until every last disbeliever gives up and there are way too many disbelievers (see previous point)<br />6) Why do I rarely hear yen bears talking people into their trade but constantly hear yen bulls talking their book?<br /><br />With volatility this low its rude not to own yen puts. Why have cash positions and be constantly talked out of them by the Cassandras?barrebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03463156721565816861noreply@blogger.com