tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8725711643327006606..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: GrrrrrMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50278996593621270542009-09-09T22:23:41.221+01:002009-09-09T22:23:41.221+01:00maybe a slightly naive question. but given the rat...maybe a slightly naive question. but given the rate of decline in consumer credit is there a possibility that the next big move will be for people to increase their personal credit again? rates are low and bank willingness to lend seems to have troughed? i know its horrific, but there's been 40 financial crises in the last 40 years albeit mainly EM. (we never learn...)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24446978899282470602009-09-05T09:53:14.743+01:002009-09-05T09:53:14.743+01:00From the end of last year money flowed straught ba...From the end of last year money flowed straught back into commodity sector generally. <br /><br />As the year progressed this continued regardless of the fact that much of the underlying product<br />continued to stockpile.<br /><br />Of late Oil ,Nat Gas ,and Agric's have shown anything from weakness to outright blood bath in the case of Nat gas.<br /><br />I think what we have here is the moneyflow giving up at least temporarily on the broad commodity sector and concentrating on precious metals that do't have storage issues.<br /><br />The underlying story remains the same though which is money sheltering from the dollar ,paper currency in general and uncertainty over what recovery prospects might be which obviously impinge on equities.<br /><br />If this reasoning is at all correct then gold should go not hang about $1000 ,it should just go up because the effect of concentrating moneyflow this narrowly should overcome any so called big number resistance.<br /><br />far as I am concerned it's worth the stake ans stop it out if it doesn't happen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31517696330284257542009-09-04T12:58:42.354+01:002009-09-04T12:58:42.354+01:00Thank you, I do use stops and they get hit regular...Thank you, I do use stops and they get hit regularly. I'm just a bit sceptical of all the "gold is going to the moooooon" chatter.<br />:)Nicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-489546797383516062009-09-04T12:22:58.045+01:002009-09-04T12:22:58.045+01:00Nic,
I got a ju-ju for you that includes years of ...Nic,<br />I got a ju-ju for you that includes years of trading experience. You or anyone else on mother earth cannot forecast price action or the day that you will die with any great accuracy. Instead, my humble life experience as a trader is to place your trades with great conviction along with protective stop losses and ignore ignominious and fruitless predictions that carry little to no value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75723920727342007862009-09-04T12:02:50.773+01:002009-09-04T12:02:50.773+01:00Way too much bollocks, not nearly enough facts. St...Way too much bollocks, not nearly enough facts. Stay tuned tho as they trickle in + watch that steepness…Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06652279143416901604noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47606878871741920742009-09-04T09:29:11.601+01:002009-09-04T09:29:11.601+01:00that's right...gold is nearer a top. that make...that's right...gold is nearer a top. that makes sense in this climate...notAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84412027208589464692009-09-04T09:06:46.833+01:002009-09-04T09:06:46.833+01:00Nemo: Now it's more likely to be "No shov...Nemo: Now it's more likely to be "No shoving unless it will create more standing room in the subway car." Something about that location breeds incivility, mythic or otherwise...MMcCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34677513645568862342009-09-04T03:20:42.265+01:002009-09-04T03:20:42.265+01:00Oops here are the charts.
http://s238.photobucket...Oops here are the charts.<br /><br />http://s238.photobucket.com/albums/ff50/elitejets/goldweekEW.png<br /><br />http://s238.photobucket.com/albums/ff50/elitejets/goldmonthly.pngNicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12516291398645371632009-09-04T03:14:17.413+01:002009-09-04T03:14:17.413+01:00Anonymous 9:06AM - I have a mystical ju-ju counter...Anonymous 9:06AM - I have a mystical ju-ju counter argument for your gold bugs including EW.<br /><br />Price remains beneath highs in February and April and only a break through them puts the all time high 1034 (March 2008) in jeopardy. Structurally, even a new high is probably just temporary. <br />http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff50/elitejets/goldweekEW.png<br />An unorthodox top in wave B of an expanded flat would pave the way for wave C to eventually drop below 681. <br />The 1999-2008 rally is equal to the 1976-1980 rally in terms of price movement. But 2008 momentum, measured by RSI, did not reach the 1980 level. This creates significant divergence that is typical of major turning points. <br />http://i238.photobucket.com/albums/ff50/elitejets/goldmonthly.png<br />Even allowing for a new high, gold appears much closer to a top than a bottom.Nicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29759884687486704632009-09-04T02:44:05.439+01:002009-09-04T02:44:05.439+01:00MMcC - "No dogs or Chinese".
http://ww...MMcC - "No dogs or Chinese". <br /><br />http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v15/v15n5p31_Weber.htmlNemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90831185267697104002009-09-04T02:36:25.276+01:002009-09-04T02:36:25.276+01:00"Alas, Macro Man can remember the days when a..."Alas, Macro Man can remember the days when a "healthy" market was one that didn't rely on administrative diktat for direction..." If Macro Man can remember those days in China, he should be getting his telegram from the Queen rather shortly (and no doubt has fond memories of gin slings at the racing track where Renmin Square now sits)...MMcCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57678097491319378442009-09-04T00:36:42.070+01:002009-09-04T00:36:42.070+01:00There is a lot of discussion on gold: a commodity ...There is a lot of discussion on gold: a commodity that has effectively gone nowhere since February. Perhaps that suggests something in itself? <br /><br />It probably undermines the hyperinflation/public finances are going to hell crowd. Unless the "break out" is geniune?<br /><br />But I don't have a view (clue) on gold so thanks for all the input. <br /><br />Nemo's comments much earlier on Australian gold companies were spot on.Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24633685584050536232009-09-04T00:35:07.136+01:002009-09-04T00:35:07.136+01:00Like to see things move to Hong Kong (and out of L...Like to see things move to Hong Kong (and out of London), but $63 million is hardly a market moving (in theory :) ) amount of gold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4419464000321850022009-09-03T23:47:23.296+01:002009-09-03T23:47:23.296+01:00Thanks Anon @ 11:39
LeftB and Anon @ 10:42
And do...Thanks Anon @ 11:39<br /><br />LeftB and Anon @ 10:42<br />And do you guys actually invest or trade in financial markets? Wow...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51788215242806712052009-09-03T23:39:17.862+01:002009-09-03T23:39:17.862+01:00http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-recalls...http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-recalls-gold-reserves-from-london-2009-09-03?siteid=nwhmostpopularAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88561677783677601832009-09-03T22:42:59.229+01:002009-09-03T22:42:59.229+01:00"it is clear the holding institutions do not ..."it is clear the holding institutions do not have it have for delivery".<br /><br />It is clear from what objective source? The numbers are specifically what ?<br /><br />If it is substantiated fact that is one thing ,if it simply more of the mountain of rumour, opinion , or 'wishing for' that the markets provide daily then that is another matter entirely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59602602042987583452009-09-03T22:28:08.161+01:002009-09-03T22:28:08.161+01:00In other news, Martians have also demanded deliver...In other news, Martians have also demanded delivery of all Earth's gold by tomorrow morning. All Earthling currencies will be declared null and void by lunchtime or we will suck out your eyeballs through a straw.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82823200250496887772009-09-03T22:15:45.388+01:002009-09-03T22:15:45.388+01:00Gold is going a lot higher from here. Hong Kong ha...Gold is going a lot higher from here. Hong Kong has demanded physical delivery of its gold reserves from London. While the reasons for the delivery are just speculation at the moment, it is clear that the holding institutions of this gold do not have it for delivery.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26578599585349508312009-09-03T19:07:39.216+01:002009-09-03T19:07:39.216+01:00Guys, altough it is quite basic, did you see the s...Guys, altough it is quite basic, did you see the sweet zone working out quite well until now in this bounce since March?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05307640469567394211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24009134428837602962009-09-03T18:13:31.174+01:002009-09-03T18:13:31.174+01:00Anon 317pm-
Yeah did all right on nat gas on the ...Anon 317pm-<br /><br />Yeah did all right on nat gas on the way down (and still holding). Wish I had a bigger position on but can't complain as long as there is no "-" in front of the PL.<br /><br />What is really out of whack like you said is the steepness of the curve. I was looking into it couple weeks ago but decided just being outright short is better. Hadn't looked into the UNG angle. Let me dig further and write back here.Rock out with my macro outhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07485114932697964875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8784649188939233072009-09-03T17:33:41.030+01:002009-09-03T17:33:41.030+01:00ATM straddles and jobbing the gamma might be an in...ATM straddles and jobbing the gamma might be an interesting way to play out this gold scenarioAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75983455851455713092009-09-03T17:07:02.501+01:002009-09-03T17:07:02.501+01:00whoops there goes that local max on gold. As much ...whoops there goes that local max on gold. As much as I hate the tin foil crowd I am not shorting it here.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40460990016926076742009-09-03T15:44:41.737+01:002009-09-03T15:44:41.737+01:00Natural gas and lobsters are two asset classes tha...Natural gas and lobsters are two asset classes that are: a) hard to store and b) not being artificially reflated by the government, so both provide a good indicator of whether we are in a deflationary environment.<br /><br />The dollar finally climbed off its arse at 10am today. Soon it will be buying more lobsters than ever. China bounce has that dead cat feel...leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41147156383813222192009-09-03T15:17:46.630+01:002009-09-03T15:17:46.630+01:00Agreed about Natural Gas. It will break storage, w...Agreed about Natural Gas. It will break storage, we have 11 weeks of fill left. Without new UNG Shares to give gas a bid, all of the energy funds are just riding the short. Was definitely the easiest short in the book, caught a 7 bagger on puts. Whats ridiculous is the contango, 33% between october and november when fundamentals will continue to get worse and hurt november. Idea: buy UNG atm calls for Jan 2011. They are fundamentally mispriced, the DPM is obviously just pricing them with vol, instead of the fact that the strip for that far out is 2x current price. You also dont get as beat up by negative roll yield. I talked to a dealer about options on the futures and he told me just go do UNG, better deal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3604772579589380302009-09-03T15:08:19.728+01:002009-09-03T15:08:19.728+01:00Relax Macro Man, GLD didn't breach its Februar...Relax Macro Man, GLD didn't breach its February high and the claims numbers in the US are sticky, if not stinky, so if there is a whiff of anything in the air it is certainly not hyperinflation. Suspect somewhere there is a desk pumping gold futures so they can dump. Most of these spikes in gold reverse quite promptly, and a modest rally in the dollar would cause a rout. (Yes, we are short). Interesting to see what happens if they print a 9.7% or 9.8% U-3 number tomorrow.leftbacknoreply@blogger.com