tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8588128505041068853..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Consider Yourselves WarnedMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52988522064795520932009-08-09T01:53:35.341+01:002009-08-09T01:53:35.341+01:00Welcome to my fine state. Enjoy your stay. If you ...Welcome to my fine state. Enjoy your stay. If you have any questions, shoot me an email. I have friends in HHI, MB & Charleston and visit regularly.Justinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03164507110289451742noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7896089201910447932009-08-09T01:48:20.568+01:002009-08-09T01:48:20.568+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Justinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03164507110289451742noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51768583652908977582009-08-06T19:40:29.782+01:002009-08-06T19:40:29.782+01:00No worries for the bulls. Abby Joseph Cohen has ra...No worries for the bulls. Abby Joseph Cohen has raised her EoY target for SPX.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43731228257665411582009-08-06T18:04:46.938+01:002009-08-06T18:04:46.938+01:00I am not a trader, but I reckon that stories like ...I am not a trader, but I reckon that stories like a <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akzttsQWatec" rel="nofollow">this</a> are indicative of a market top (I recall a similarly strained argument last year about how the ECB refusing to ease was driving up oil prices).RebelEconomisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13241098878248190971noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87436859154366158772009-08-06T14:06:54.160+01:002009-08-06T14:06:54.160+01:00Does anybody know, if there is a way to short the ...Does anybody know, if there is a way to short the Iranian rial?<br /><br />It's not tradeable on Currenex. But it seems to be a pretty safe bet right now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63655780492696202772009-08-06T14:05:00.435+01:002009-08-06T14:05:00.435+01:00NI, I thought the PBOC may tighten sooner rather t...NI, I thought the PBOC may tighten sooner rather than later, but perhaps they will let asset prices run for a while as an offset to contracting household income? Monetary Policy in China is probably more about maintaining social stability than any kind of US style taylor rule approach. Recent official comments about inflation have been interesting, however. <br /><br />I completely agree that many risk assets, EM equities, commodities and commodity currencies will probably get hit for six when policy is tightened. <br /><br />Note that the Baltic Freight Index has not participated very much in the latest commodity rally...Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85380164649939306602009-08-06T13:51:20.268+01:002009-08-06T13:51:20.268+01:00US GDP will probably bounce quite hard in Q3, due ...US GDP will probably bounce quite hard in Q3, due to the inventory rebound, but beyond that it will falter if consumption does not lift (and there isn't much sign of that yet). The household income figures earlier in the week were telling a 3.4% annual contraction in nominal income. That hasn't happened in at least the past 50 years. Nominal growth is also contracting. The US may already be in a Fisher-style debt deflation trap.Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18745222804233614062009-08-06T13:29:04.411+01:002009-08-06T13:29:04.411+01:00Anyone else looking at copper? Just a few datapoin...Anyone else looking at copper? Just a few datapoints:<br /><br />- China still importing record volumes. <br />- HOWEVER.... seems every single producer's refining and treatment charges are down. Ie, Jiangxi Copper et al have a lot of copper in storage and seem to be short of end demand. John Hempton at Bronte Capital recently had a good piece on the potential for whiplash from restocking but I'm inclined to think that when this thing goes its gong to be huge. <br /><br />I guess the Chinese monetary policy watch continues since more and more of the world's risk assets are riding on it.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68973326185603085382009-08-06T10:32:14.837+01:002009-08-06T10:32:14.837+01:00Sorry unclear, the GS est is for H2, not Q3. Still...Sorry unclear, the GS est is for H2, not Q3. Still...<br />Now BoA is jumping on the bandwagon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35222137354802442042009-08-06T10:12:12.083+01:002009-08-06T10:12:12.083+01:00They say Aug is seasonally toppy, but given Q3 GDP...They say Aug is seasonally toppy, but given Q3 GDP turning +ve it might not be (heard GS yest revised their est from .1 to 3%, wtf?!). I don't see how its possible to get so enthusiastic when the economy is so obviously weak (esp the C side of the equation) and will continue to be so weak, but my difficulty lies with trading counter to that. Well, we reached S&P 1000 just as you left, so what treats are in store for us now?<br />Good luck all, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19383097046818404602009-08-06T08:58:17.030+01:002009-08-06T08:58:17.030+01:00The Oval will be great, MM. LB will catch bits of ...The Oval will be great, MM. LB will catch bits of the 4th Test in a pub in Shepherds Market before his return to NY.<br /><br />Brett Lee will be steaming in trying to save the Ashes for Oz while Freddie will somehow patch his body together to bowl at 90 mph for England.<br /><br />EUR:JPY almost flat at the open today. I suppose EUR:USD can go higher to 1.46, but LB would prefer that it not do so.<br /><br />There are now increasing numbers of "tools savants" appearing on bearish blogs claiming that the market will continue to move up every day until the end of time. Are we close to a top?leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25564264919883839142009-08-06T07:56:07.616+01:002009-08-06T07:56:07.616+01:00LB... Yes it is Skippy the Bush Kangaroo.. England...LB... Yes it is Skippy the Bush Kangaroo.. England will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in this Ashes series as well... :) <br /><br />I wish I could be there...Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17813624171436073332009-08-06T07:38:20.459+01:002009-08-06T07:38:20.459+01:00It never fails to amaze how every now and again so...It never fails to amaze how every now and again some random people feel the need to give it the big one about how well they are doing and how wrong everyone else is...You'd think they'd be too busy counting their cash whilst being quite grateful that there was someone else willing to be on the other side of all their winning trades. On the other hand, and more likely, its some 12 year old in a back bedroom of their parents house..<br /><br />Regardless, MM did you break a mirror with a dead black cat?? These holiday's of yours seem bad for the health!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79419832232453099492009-08-05T23:55:50.684+01:002009-08-05T23:55:50.684+01:00LB, you'll be pleased to heat that I've se...LB, you'll be pleased to heat that I've secured a tix for the Saturday of the 5th test at the Oval...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37145321311471707892009-08-05T23:50:57.428+01:002009-08-05T23:50:57.428+01:00Uninvested, the year's not over yet. Make sure...Uninvested, the year's not over yet. Make sure you don't trip over your own hubris....leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52833137645866379812009-08-05T23:39:33.411+01:002009-08-05T23:39:33.411+01:00Well, I may have been stone cold all year, but des...Well, I may have been stone cold all year, but despite that and taking six weeks out of the market following knee surgery, I've still managed to put together a Sharpe ratio > 2 this year. I guess that's what makes one a "smart guy"....as opposed to the donuts who got it wrong <i>last</i> year.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1698916025390283072009-08-05T21:41:26.412+01:002009-08-05T21:41:26.412+01:00MM has been stone cold all year.
The rally will co...MM has been stone cold all year.<br />The rally will continue with all you "smart guys" left behind.Underinvestednoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15311321197627417272009-08-05T21:24:13.998+01:002009-08-05T21:24:13.998+01:00Have a great vacation.
Waiting for you posts.Have a great vacation.<br />Waiting for you posts.boat speedhttp://www.psychosnail.com/BoatSpeedCalculator.aspxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22871691691267400642009-08-05T21:23:41.255+01:002009-08-05T21:23:41.255+01:00Have a great vacation.
Waiting for you postsHave a great vacation.<br />Waiting for you postsboat speedhttp://www.psychosnail.com/BoatSpeedCalculator.aspxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22892774596429408212009-08-05T19:46:40.333+01:002009-08-05T19:46:40.333+01:00Skippy the Bush kangaroo.... ???Skippy the Bush kangaroo.... ???leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40594890766058977602009-08-05T13:37:10.054+01:002009-08-05T13:37:10.054+01:00Have a read of Andy Xie's latest on the Caijin...Have a read of Andy Xie's latest on the Caijing web site. At the risk of confirmation bias, it is excellent. Enjoy the holiday MM <br /><br />Great Save by Australia :)Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34731763108301385402009-08-04T10:00:19.172+01:002009-08-04T10:00:19.172+01:00In your neck of the woods, today, Macro Man. I ass...In your neck of the woods, today, Macro Man. I assume you are based in Mayfair, where LB is writing this morning from his homeland. LB finds the mood in London eerily reminiscent of that in New York. V-shaped recovery, risk-on, housing market bounce etc.. all very odd. At least EUR:JPY has turned down this morning. <br /><br />LB is also short gold - there is no inflation, no deflation and no imminent prospect of the sky falling. All that would appear necessary to trigger a nasty sell-off in the metal would be the US$ showing even the faintest sign of life, a breath even might suffice.<br /><br />Of course LB picked the worst exchange rate of the year to come over... and the Aussies saved the game as well. Bugger it.<br /><br />Enjoy the vacation. Beach? Golf? All of the above?leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3583305985339818582009-08-04T01:24:44.535+01:002009-08-04T01:24:44.535+01:00MM, Remember watching a Friends episode which revo...MM, Remember watching a Friends episode which revolved around the theory that peeing on a jellyfish sting takes the sting away.....incase you are still smarting from the jellyfish encounter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-735321718205193182009-08-03T16:19:21.398+01:002009-08-03T16:19:21.398+01:00I'm in Isle of Palms...and have, somehow, mana...I'm in Isle of Palms...and have, somehow, managed to get stung by a jellyfish. A small price to pay for the usual holiday volatility...new lows for the $, carnage in the reds...I love it when a plan comes together....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-260182139743041632009-08-03T14:29:27.128+01:002009-08-03T14:29:27.128+01:00Swing by Charleston.....I'll be here all yearSwing by Charleston.....I'll be here all yearAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com