tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8537744724430557241..comments2024-03-29T15:07:48.008+00:00Comments on Macro Man: You Get What You Pay ForMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66270598244361822962009-05-08T09:47:00.000+01:002009-05-08T09:47:00.000+01:00Anon @ 8.46: sorry, but my little models and indi...Anon @ 8.46: sorry, but my little models and indicators help put food on the table, so they must remain a secret!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13261109630550399462009-05-08T08:09:00.000+01:002009-05-08T08:09:00.000+01:00I look much more at P/S and EV/S now as the contra...I look much more at P/S and EV/S now as the contraction has been so sharpe it destroys earnings. Trusting the forward looking earnings is basically trusting analysts (your call). I have basically just taken 30% off topline for P/S and EV/S to gauge priceness of equities.theoddonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13375212828511448218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79541945205761669142009-05-07T23:02:00.000+01:002009-05-07T23:02:00.000+01:00MM. Any chance you could provide high level detai...MM. Any chance you could provide high level details on your equity models. Type - regression, factor analysis, inputs - macro variables, technical, sentiment..... Just a general idea to see how the pro's do it.<br /><br />ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57531397282998093022009-05-07T20:46:00.000+01:002009-05-07T20:46:00.000+01:00great stuff!great stuff!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12278467424060525491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12536314865384732492009-05-07T17:51:00.000+01:002009-05-07T17:51:00.000+01:00we've discussed before...but if dividend futures m...we've discussed before...but if dividend futures market is right. then 70 euro of dividends to come from eurostoxx next calendar year, 2010. thats a 3% yield based on current spot level. i think that is too pessimistic, eurostoxx will yield more. i'd be willing to be that companies maintain or grow dividends in 2010. this year eurostoxx companies will pay 110 euro of dividends. if this is the true trough in earnings and payout ratio are maintained....then equities to me don't look bad value versus the 1 year risk free rate which in Europe currently 82bp according to my screen. money will naturally flow into higher yielding assets even if growth is dull in my view. it is this allocation story that will dampen the equity sell off in my humble opinion. we could go into boring low return world where yields matter. analyst earnings whether observed at the operating or reporting line can never be trusted. They are sheep. and this earnings season they were too low. even if you look at sectors that were not full of hocus pocus. i.e ex-financials.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87823295602088179322009-05-07T17:13:00.000+01:002009-05-07T17:13:00.000+01:00Yeah, top- and bottom-ticking is for suckers. Tha...Yeah, top- and bottom-ticking is for suckers. That said, while I am still net long, I have been selling this week's rally. Bear-market rallies are wonderful things, but it's my thesis that the Geithner feelgood bankstravaganza we call "stress tests" were a sell-the-news opportunity.<br /><br />We'll see, but I now equities are going to have to earn out their new valuations.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20579231943814612822009-05-07T16:17:00.000+01:002009-05-07T16:17:00.000+01:00Bingo.Bingo.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19379039542155687072009-05-07T15:52:00.000+01:002009-05-07T15:52:00.000+01:00@prophets:
the numbers in the charts are PEs not q...@prophets:<br />the numbers in the charts are PEs not quarterly earnings. <br /><br />They are the publicly available numbers from the S&P Homepage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77936825834453413652009-05-07T15:44:00.000+01:002009-05-07T15:44:00.000+01:00how do you get 2010 earnings BELOW 2009 earnings? ...how do you get 2010 earnings BELOW 2009 earnings? that doesn't make sense and I run the same bottoms up/top down model.<br /><br />I get fair value of S&P500 in the 700-900 range, even using BBB as a baseline compare.prophetshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16688051502761732148noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71173765096996130342009-05-07T14:46:00.000+01:002009-05-07T14:46:00.000+01:00Personally, I find this rally deeply disturbing be...Personally, I find this rally deeply disturbing because it demonstrates the extreme shallowness with which most market participants make their investment decisions. A few months ago the world was ending. Now, there is nothing but optimism to the most distant horizons.<br /><br />People are buying because the fear missing the leg up. This is nothing more than "monkey see, monkey do." "Everyone else is jumping in, so I should too" type thinking. If this is the level of intellectual analysis that goes into capital allocation decisions, the world, in the long term, is in even more trouble than I first thought.PPMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39612291506617938392009-05-07T14:06:00.000+01:002009-05-07T14:06:00.000+01:00Interesting. I am out of equity now. What is the...Interesting. I am out of equity now. What is the story behind the long term treasury? Is the current yield sustainable if the fed wants to support the recovery?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63128557302622565462009-05-07T13:43:00.000+01:002009-05-07T13:43:00.000+01:00che guevara actions on chrysler changed secured le...che guevara actions on chrysler changed secured lenders priorities and the wall of money scouring for credit deals poured on equities instead. better to bet on the certainty of inflation. that's my story and i'm stickin to it.hopefully anonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89034626335195870852009-05-07T12:50:00.000+01:002009-05-07T12:50:00.000+01:00SFOT, yes I am still happily ensconced in midcurve...SFOT, yes I am still happily ensconced in midcurve oil; the possy is small enough that I can run it no matter what the price does. I have augmented it with the occasional foray into prompt; I was long earlier this week, but sadly took profit yesterday morning and missed out on nearly $4/bbl. grrr.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6331658934911101982009-05-07T12:22:00.000+01:002009-05-07T12:22:00.000+01:00MM - credit where it's due. One of you best posts ...MM - credit where it's due. One of you best posts imho. Clean, clear, simple, logical and right.<br /><br />Consider this - outyear earnings and PEs are also likely envisioning a more robust recovery than the Fed, CBO, OECD, IMF, World Bank, et.al. are AND those PE ratios are outrageous when you look at history.<br />Right now we're trapped in a s.t. sucker's rally where fantasy feeds fantasy,again imho.<br /><br />For the record, on a YoY basis,ADP employment was down -4.3% vs -3.9% last month. There is NO data point in the last three weeks where the level isn't abysmal even if the rate of decrease has slowed.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07898348310819841317noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-755062092193268192009-05-07T11:32:00.000+01:002009-05-07T11:32:00.000+01:00Agree. Referring to your last video on GC heres on...Agree. Referring to your last video on GC heres one explaining the last rally. Great show.<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qw9oX-kZ_9kAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55913978260903668212009-05-07T11:18:00.000+01:002009-05-07T11:18:00.000+01:00Hi MM, agreed with the fact that trading anything ...Hi MM, agreed with the fact that trading anything else now is about getting the S&P right. And spot on re weight of money trumping everything. Seems like this applies to commodities very much at this juncture, Gold and Oil in particular. U r still a happy camper in long mid curve oil? My 2 cents worth here. Really seems like the price action this time of the year in 2007 and 2008.<br /><br />http://sfot-otb.blogspot.com/2009/05/groundhog-day.htmlSFOThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34674354830665527062009-05-07T11:08:00.000+01:002009-05-07T11:08:00.000+01:00I have worked with a lot of people who, thanks to ...I have worked with a lot of people who, thanks to MM, i now know come from Lake Wobegon....For this titbit, i'm forever thankful...Yours, IBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85212742138236394372009-05-07T10:39:00.000+01:002009-05-07T10:39:00.000+01:00'earnings quality is pretty execrable, recent beat...'earnings quality is pretty execrable, recent beats notwithstanding'<br /><br />Not to belabor the obvious, however let us note that the beats have been at the expense of the 'expense' side of the ledger, and the attendant effects such as salaries.<br /><br />Once again, my admiration goes to you London chaps. Ten point bump on the spies as soon as I took a nap. Any longs want to pay me to sleep?H(oratio)noreply@blogger.com