tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8463616541636922677..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Event RiskMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79631664497072337232009-01-18T22:02:00.000+00:002009-01-18T22:02:00.000+00:00As we say it here in showering-challenged, once-a-...As we say it here in showering-challenged, once-a-day-toilet-flushing Singapore: <BR/>Aiyah, donch anyhow bash us like that leh ! Friend-friend abit lah...<BR/><BR/>Being a pretty regular reader of MM, have noted his use of smaller, open and export-oriented economies like Spore's as a global trade bellwether. <BR/>Have always appreciated his perspectives and insights; including his humour and ribbing at any fair-game topic - including my tiny red dot of a country. <BR/><BR/>Fire away... <BR/><BR/>[Sniff sniff... seems my typing worked up a little perspiration - time for a shower. <BR/>D'oh!! Had my one-shower-for-the-day already!]Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91304612546557246192009-01-18T19:13:00.000+00:002009-01-18T19:13:00.000+00:00I used to think the ECB was wisely managed, largel...I used to think the ECB was wisely managed, largely because they were more cautious with their interest rate movements in recent years than our irratic Fed. However, with more time and data (and in light of the current financial mess) it nows seems that the ECB is oblivious to what is happening in the world economy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48355139895155882932009-01-17T14:46:00.000+00:002009-01-17T14:46:00.000+00:00did you include all the european words for incompe...did you include all the european words for incompetent or just english? any presumably the fact that there are more americans than brits may be a factor in deciding the incompetence? how about GBPUSD as a measure of their competence - isn't currency stability supposed to be at least one of the fed's aims?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43726136847394031312009-01-17T11:44:00.000+00:002009-01-17T11:44:00.000+00:00No ideas re BARC....we shall see.Re SGD, the pures...No ideas re BARC....we shall see.<BR/><BR/>Re SGD, the purest trade is SGD against the basket, but it's a lower-reward trade. Given the broad correlation between SGD and EUR, and my broadly bearish views on EUR, I do indeed have the bulk of my risk in USDSGD.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38549342001365035382009-01-17T10:19:00.000+00:002009-01-17T10:19:00.000+00:00Presumably you're shorting sgd against usd - any v...Presumably you're shorting sgd against usd - any views on how gbp and eur instead would fare?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-92099945132315836372009-01-17T03:27:00.000+00:002009-01-17T03:27:00.000+00:00Please, earth people, stop trying to demonstrate a...Please, earth people, stop trying to demonstrate a point by saying a certain combination of words gets X google hits. Consider:<BR/><BR/>fed genius = 5,720,000 hits! Bernanke is brilliant<BR/>Bernanke superman = 50,400 hits. He will heat ray your ass.<BR/>George Bush penis gourd = 4,800 hits. The president may or may not wear a penis gourd. Ask again later.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88204378641997254712009-01-16T22:43:00.000+00:002009-01-16T22:43:00.000+00:00hope it's just CALPERS getting out any more views ...hope it's just CALPERS getting out any more views on BARCAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79139316251680916172009-01-16T18:11:00.000+00:002009-01-16T18:11:00.000+00:00any news on Barclays ?hearing CALPERS Exited BCS ?...any news on Barclays ?<BR/><BR/><BR/>hearing CALPERS Exited BCS ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80889612711835493332009-01-16T17:50:00.000+00:002009-01-16T17:50:00.000+00:00and very well done in braz di. very well done.You...and very well done in braz di. very well done.<BR/><BR/>You were not a happy blogger on 10/22. Way to stick w it. Impressive<BR/><BR/>mpmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88810835783685948292009-01-16T17:38:00.000+00:002009-01-16T17:38:00.000+00:00You're the (macro)manHave fun with the macrofamily...You're the (macro)man<BR/><BR/>Have fun with the macrofamily this weekend.<BR/><BR/>I enjoy'd the conversation<BR/><BR/>This mkt feels like garbage<BR/><BR/>mpmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24798610502669410082009-01-16T17:28:00.000+00:002009-01-16T17:28:00.000+00:00Mpm,to be honest I am a bit of an oik when it come...Mpm,to be honest I am a bit of an oik when it comes to fixed income vol.....I am a purely directional FI punter, and stuff either looks cheap or it doesn't. For the most part, the stuff that looks cheap to me are flies and condors...which suggests that vol is pretty high, in Europe at Least. I have stayed away from us fiuxed income for the last month or so until today, so no view there.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08951375217497888943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63776292208542095332009-01-16T17:01:00.000+00:002009-01-16T17:01:00.000+00:00mm- Nice cheap put with durationHow have you defin...mm- <BR/>Nice cheap put with duration<BR/>How have you defined fixed income vol recently. Has it gotten smoked... think its due to the FED playing in mortgages or something else?<BR/><BR/><BR/>mpmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36810223992881800452009-01-16T15:52:00.000+00:002009-01-16T15:52:00.000+00:00name one, only one current euro official who knows...name one, only one current euro official who knows what they are talking about in economics. amazing what socialism can do to societies. and i think UK is on its way.<BR/>and if i remember correctly trichet makes 50% more than benyamin. but then again ben probably makes a fortune from insider trading so it evens out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8708593358403967152009-01-16T15:44:00.000+00:002009-01-16T15:44:00.000+00:00Dear Mr MM,"Macro Man remains bearish of the S$ an...Dear Mr MM,<BR/>"Macro Man remains bearish of the S$ and other trade-sensitive currencies."<BR/>Pls xcuse my lack but what are the other trade sensitive currencies and what are not trade sensitive?<BR/>ThanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57145370340007164702009-01-16T15:41:00.000+00:002009-01-16T15:41:00.000+00:00I see the BOE has embarked on quantative easing by...I see the BOE has embarked on quantative easing by stealth;<BR/><BR/>http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/manchester/7833145.stmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47761400364120417112009-01-16T14:42:00.000+00:002009-01-16T14:42:00.000+00:00Anon, "sold duration" means I sold some Bund and U...Anon, "sold duration" means I sold some Bund and US 10y note futures.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40178212949523913892009-01-16T14:40:00.000+00:002009-01-16T14:40:00.000+00:00What does "sold some duration" mean? On JCT, your ...What does "sold some duration" mean?<BR/> On JCT, your criticism is understandable but given the nature of the crisis, what short term difference would the economically "right" rate decisions really have made? Imo, not much, so sending the right message was/is more important, regardless of the economics behind it when the tool does little economics-wise. Regarding the message his policy and statements send and his general jawboning, I think JCT has held up quite well.<BR/> love the blog, thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44137902473471740752009-01-16T14:37:00.000+00:002009-01-16T14:37:00.000+00:00Good question MM. Maybe who out there is looking ...Good question MM. Maybe who out there is looking for macro traders, what kind of people, etc.<BR/><BR/>For example I understand that the vogue is "high frequency" traders. I trade just like you do, MM: Small to medium core positions, lots of scalps here and there to pay the bills, and press it when I think it needs to be pressed. But after hearing what is in vogue, I am slanting my material more towards the shorter-term trades.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13612166341574816332009-01-16T14:31:00.000+00:002009-01-16T14:31:00.000+00:00...and marketwise, two comments: I also like Tric......and marketwise, two comments: I also like Trichet on a personal level. They got it badly wrong and will be at zero soon enough, but does it really matter? I'm not sure. 4%, 2%, 0%...the benefit accrues slowly, and meanwhile a $5 billion loss is an odd lot. To a BBB corp does it matter if they have to pay 12% or 14%?<BR/><BR/>On SPUs I am shorting Feb puts at the 830 level, agree there will be a time to short but in the bigger scheme of things think the mkt got ahead of itself, has to have time to digest life below 900 for a while. After all, we were at 1200 when TARP came to "fruition" (to use the term loosely).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10530323412772835892009-01-16T14:28:00.000+00:002009-01-16T14:28:00.000+00:00@ Steve, I'm not really sure how that would work. ...@ Steve, I'm not really sure how that would work. What do you suggest?<BR/><BR/>@Owe, as always, the issue with managed futures/CTAs is choosing the right fund. John Henry had a great year last year...but only after a multi-year run of performance so execrable that he lost basically all external funds...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6135505297696870482009-01-16T14:25:00.000+00:002009-01-16T14:25:00.000+00:00@ Steve - my impression is that - at least from th...@ Steve - my impression is that - at least from the point of view of returns, short bias was outperforming last year, and Managed Futures are the safest bet looking back the last 5-10 years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6605506563695072262009-01-16T14:07:00.000+00:002009-01-16T14:07:00.000+00:00Hey MM how about a job forum post, I am at a preca...Hey MM how about a job forum post, I am at a precariously ill bank and would appreciate access to more information on what is going on industry-wide.<BR/><BR/>I did reasonably well last year but it doesn't account for much these days. My understanding is that global macro is probably the best of the worst of the hedge fund lot.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38239020412078994242009-01-16T13:50:00.000+00:002009-01-16T13:50:00.000+00:00Adrem, I lived in Singapore in the mid-late 90's, ...Adrem, I lived in Singapore in the mid-late 90's, and never heard any guidance on whether or when to flush.<BR/><BR/>mpm, I am flat equities. My preferred portfolio construction technique is match value trades in both "risk" directions that will hopefully outperform in either risk environment. That's not always possible, of course...so for the time being, for example, I have sold some duration against my short cyclical currency position.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29608578003815287352009-01-16T13:46:00.000+00:002009-01-16T13:46:00.000+00:00MM-You are playing short risky assets via EM expor...MM-<BR/>You are playing short risky assets via EM exporting countries (i likey), but say youre flat. What do you find to be the best way to delta neutral your short risky asset position at this juncture?<BR/>SPY/Crude/Other risky assets/VOL?<BR/><BR/>Im most interested in- are you hedging via something you hate/ dont think is acting right (buy expensive)/ or just in spy terms?<BR/><BR/>Trichet is a fruitloop - but for some reason i like the old bugger.<BR/><BR/>mpmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32814051629662594042009-01-16T13:43:00.000+00:002009-01-16T13:43:00.000+00:00Apparently, things are so bad in Singapore that th...Apparently, things are so bad in Singapore that the government is encouraging people to shower less...Sorry to add a comment that is very superfluous and light years away from any market wisdom..BUT...from my fuzzy memory of days in Hong Kong I seem to recall the Singapore government ordering that toilets should not be flushed more than once a day, something like that. It must have something to do with perennial water shortages... Water, water everywhere but not a drop to drinkDonlasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14400745649069349297noreply@blogger.com