tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8431005815232556627..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Uh-ohMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19401979878589020122008-09-05T10:26:00.000+01:002008-09-05T10:26:00.000+01:00we provide all wow goldservices. you can buy world...we provide all <A HREF="http://www.wow7gold.com/" REL="nofollow">wow gold</A>services. <BR/>you can buy <A HREF="http://www.wow7gold.com/" REL="nofollow">world of warcraft gold</A> cheap wow gold here ! <BR/><A HREF="http://www.wow7gold.com/age-of-conan-gold.html" REL="nofollow">age of conan gold</A> <BR/><A HREF="http://www.wow7gold.com/age-of-conan-gold.html" REL="nofollow">buy age of conan gold</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.wow7gold.com/age-of-conan-gold.html" REL="nofollow">aoc gold</A> <A HREF="http://www.gold-aoc.org/" REL="nofollow">aoc gold</A> <A HREF="http://www.wow7gold.com/lord-of-the-rings-online-gold.html" REL="nofollow">lord of the rings online gold</A> <BR/><A HREF="http://www.wow7gold.com/lord-of-the-rings-online-gold.html" REL="nofollow">lotro gold</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.buy-warhammer.com/" REL="nofollow">buy warhammer gold</A><BR/><A HREF="http://www.buy-warhammer.com/" REL="nofollow">warhammer gold</A> <BR/><A HREF="http://www.buy-diablo.com/" REL="nofollow">diablo 3 gold</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57213316404198798412008-08-12T15:42:00.000+01:002008-08-12T15:42:00.000+01:00Blimey - you should go on holiday more often (and ...Blimey - you should go on holiday more often (and I'm sure Mrs Macro and the Macro Kids would echo that).<BR/><BR/>Are we gearing up for another bout of fun and games now? RUB basket calmed down, 1m EUR/USD vol getting sold off from the highs (albeit not hugely), VIX doing nada.......<BR/><BR/>(panto voice) "Look Behind You!!!!"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4124285028594508262008-08-07T20:17:00.000+01:002008-08-07T20:17:00.000+01:00While I enjoy the blog, the comments section seems...While I enjoy the blog, the comments section seems to be increasingly noisy, cf. comments on technicals from people who think "Influence and foul play are impossible" in the FX market. What next, hot tips on penny stocks?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87282572735156540482008-08-07T09:38:00.000+01:002008-08-07T09:38:00.000+01:00Anon 10:13 PMUSDJPY isnt making me particularly ha...Anon 10:13 PM<BR/><BR/>USDJPY isnt making me particularly happy.<BR/><BR/>I avoid usdjpy though.<BR/><BR/>crosses like nzdjpy, audjpy are off their lows but its not dramatic.<BR/><BR/>eurjpy short is also hurting. maybe trichet will help me out there. eurjpy could recouple with the eur-yen interest rate differentials, which will be in favour of the yen if trichet doesnt sound too hawkishspagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27509140007447916472008-08-06T22:13:00.000+01:002008-08-06T22:13:00.000+01:00Spagetti I guess you're pretty concerned with USDJ...Spagetti I guess you're pretty concerned with USDJPY currently at 109.69....<BR/><BR/>I guess the Jap gov talking about economic deteriorisation not helpful!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75189348413668782272008-08-05T06:03:00.000+01:002008-08-05T06:03:00.000+01:00Edward Hugh's comments about Spanish banks are ech...Edward Hugh's comments about Spanish banks are echoed today in a Morgan Stanley piece. Things look bad. Is the Uh-oh curse at work again?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87494955631140063172008-08-04T20:04:00.000+01:002008-08-04T20:04:00.000+01:00Thanks, spagetti. I will watch and learn. AnonThanks, spagetti. I will watch and learn. AnonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9038521601588437302008-08-04T13:26:00.000+01:002008-08-04T13:26:00.000+01:00anon 12:42 re NZDJPYim short myself.very short te...anon 12:42 re NZDJPY<BR/><BR/>im short myself.<BR/><BR/>very short term, it seems to move higher as USJPY moves higher, but i think USDJPY will top around 108.20-30<BR/><BR/>for NZDJPY seems 78.00 is a support lvl, it was the low several times over the last few months. and we bounced off that<BR/><BR/>longer term, the story is intact and so are the longer term charts in my opinion.<BR/><BR/>so im not too worried over the last 24 hours of yen weakness. would get more converned if usdjpy breaks 108.50 or if NZDJPY breaks 79.40spagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14560409491031932452008-08-04T12:42:00.000+01:002008-08-04T12:42:00.000+01:00TO MM readers-- Any other thoughts about NZD/ JPY?...TO MM readers-- Any other thoughts about NZD/ JPY? Would be interested to know the dynamcis of this roller coaster relationship. Thanks AnonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60889038762537000292008-08-04T03:08:00.000+01:002008-08-04T03:08:00.000+01:00Two books for consideration-Mountains beyond Mount...Two books for consideration-<BR/>Mountains beyond Mountains by Tracy Kidder- about Dr. Paul Farmer, of Partners in Health (if you want to feel guilty about what one can do in a life)<BR/><BR/>Death comes for the Archbishop by Willa Cather- clean spare writing, and a good story.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39443137073649980702008-08-03T14:43:00.000+01:002008-08-03T14:43:00.000+01:00I guess you'll see this after your vacation, but a...I guess you'll see this after your vacation, but anyway:<BR/>Looking at the NZD/JPY graph above, I see that it is touching the line. Don't you think it will bounce back, and not breach the line?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76627382943922630722008-08-03T07:46:00.000+01:002008-08-03T07:46:00.000+01:00Hello MM,"At the same time, certain datapoints sug...Hello MM,<BR/><BR/>"At the same time, certain datapoints suggest an economy that's juddering to a halt: China's PMI sank below 50 for the first time ever (OK, there is only a 3 year history) overnight."<BR/><BR/>Basically I have the same impression. The Chinese economy is certainly slowing, and possibly quite quickly. Unfortunately they don't seem to give q-o-q GDP, which is what we really need.<BR/><BR/>And the thing is I think it is important to distinguish between those countries like India and Brazil, who are largely importing inflation via fuel and fertiliser costs, and places like China and Russia, where the labour market may be near its structural capacity limit, in which case second round problems etc are going to be much harder to control.<BR/><BR/>So I would be watching post-Olympic China very closely, I think. Another big breach in what some like to call the BRICs is that both India and Brazil have what the Economist has chosen to call the "democracy put". They also have slighly more market flexible economies, and central banks which do have a certain degree of independence. Mein Gott, the Economist even call Banco Central do Brazil the new Bundesbank - the ECB is, I fear, just about to lose that accolade. In addition they have let their currencies rise to quite a reasonable degree.<BR/><BR/>Bottom line: Goldman Sachs have it slightly wrong, since they didn't fine tune their underlying idea - which wasn't a bad one - enough.<BR/><BR/>OK. That's enough bla bla bla from me.<BR/><BR/>Enjoy your holiday. Personally I am staying put. Like Samuel Jefferson I find I am most lucky when I am sitting here at my desk. Anyway, it is far too hot out there at present.<BR/><BR/>But I wouldn't miss what is happening in Spain right now for the world. I am absolutely fascinated by how so many people can simply pack their bags and fly away to far places with absolutely no idea what they are going to find when they come back. Barcelona is eerily empty right now - even the numbers of tourists are down. Talk about having a clear conscience!<BR/><BR/>I have no idea at all how many of the companies who have just closed their doors for the great "cerragosto" will actually be in a position to open them come September. Meantime I watch and wait.Edward Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10384039867580949531noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18050052294823900992008-08-01T18:20:00.000+01:002008-08-01T18:20:00.000+01:00Thanks for the recommendations, all: keep 'em com...Thanks for the recommendations, all: keep 'em coming. <BR/><BR/>I assume that the Luther Blisset who wrote Q is the anarchist group, rather than the striker who delighted the crowds at Vicarage Road and the San Siro.<BR/><BR/>Funnily, I ,<I>already</I> picked up a book written by someone using another person's actual name as a nom de plume: a volume of gothic tales by the Japanese writer Edogawa Rampo.<BR/><BR/>Spagetti, what does it say about traders when so many (me included) seem to make a disproportionate amount of money whilst on holiday? The word "overtrading" comes to mind....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51971724678246758472008-08-01T16:59:00.000+01:002008-08-01T16:59:00.000+01:00firs of all have a great holiday MM !my fav novels...firs of all have a great holiday MM !<BR/><BR/>my fav novels i read the last few years:<BR/><BR/>1. Sebastian Faulks's Birdsong or you might want to give a try with his new 007 book<BR/>2. Edward Whittemore's Jerusalem Poker<BR/>3. Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs And Steel or Collapse<BR/><BR/>the out-of-the-office-market-turns-into-hell<BR/>curse might unfortunately work in your case as well, im sure. but also the curse is not really a curse because more than 50% of the time money is made during holidays.<BR/>dont you chaps agree ?<BR/><BR/>with equities i disagree with the low vol scenario, but im also short aud and nzd ag. the yen<BR/>and short cee currencies (you might want to take a look at them before you leave)<BR/><BR/>all in all, take care and have a safe flightspagettihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12141785799734886089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87396853095305794532008-08-01T16:21:00.000+01:002008-08-01T16:21:00.000+01:00Great blog, thank you for posting so frequently an...Great blog, thank you for posting so frequently and enjoy your holidays!<BR/><BR/>The best book I've read in a long time is "A Thousand Hills: the rebirth of Rwanda and the man who dreamed it", it gives you very good insights into what's happening in Congo/Uganda/Rwanda these days and what the US and France are up to there. It's inspiring and also quite interesting for a macro perspective.angiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00555602254191133348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39121522143227571162008-08-01T16:20:00.000+01:002008-08-01T16:20:00.000+01:00Claus & JL-- I'm going to pick up " Q...Claus & JL-- I'm going to pick up " Q" and "A Wild People", your picks for MM. Thanks for the ideas!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23722627677634726432008-08-01T13:26:00.000+01:002008-08-01T13:26:00.000+01:00Anon, trust me, I've already got some gamma!Anon, trust me, I've already got some gamma!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54566963363885696082008-08-01T13:25:00.000+01:002008-08-01T13:25:00.000+01:00Enjoy the vacation! We'll buy some FX gamma for y...Enjoy the vacation! We'll buy some FX gamma for you... ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39266766465131339242008-08-01T13:19:00.000+01:002008-08-01T13:19:00.000+01:00Have a great holiday! Your faithful readers are p...Have a great holiday! Your faithful readers are prepared for apocolyptic markets during your time away and, forwarned, will, no doubt profit! As for holiday reading, these volumes may not be in many valises anymore, but I suggest you pack Letters from the Chairman by Ace Greenberg. Long before the Bear began its dance towards death, Ace collected his witty, informative writings and came up with several books-- a course of action I hope you consider. Best A readerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24330329753166026212008-08-01T12:37:00.000+01:002008-08-01T12:37:00.000+01:00Have a good one MM ... As per reference to my blog...Have a good one MM ... <BR/><BR/>As per reference to my blog's Amazon recommendation list; did you ever get to read "A Wild People" by Hugh Leonard? It is a fine holiday novel ... <BR/><BR/>best <BR/><BR/>ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73168374931549546602008-08-01T11:17:00.000+01:002008-08-01T11:17:00.000+01:00Have a great vacation MM!Have a great vacation MM!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20345935869818109092008-08-01T10:46:00.000+01:002008-08-01T10:46:00.000+01:00Enjoy your hols MM! Last minute recommendation is ...Enjoy your hols MM! Last minute recommendation is Q by Luther Blisset, a fascinating story of papal intrigue as the reformation shakes out peasant revolts in Germany, a nice escape from the markets and a stark reminder that we've never had it so good.<BR/>Ciao, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com