tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8404434315284051811..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Shotguns and Baked Beans May Depreciate in Value TooMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54942101618959726962010-07-29T15:54:54.816+01:002010-07-29T15:54:54.816+01:00R2D2 you are not far wrong. Some banks are trying ...R2D2 you are not far wrong. Some banks are trying v hard to sell the buyside on gold puts but I think this will be a long and painful bleed out. Better to just get short delta-1 or just sell a put and delta hedge down. Its a deep market and there are central banks out there that will ensure this doesn't fall apart all at once. That being said, so long as the deflation trade continues to have its resurgence you've got to wonder how much gold makes sense.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4928568625681515532010-07-29T14:57:59.028+01:002010-07-29T14:57:59.028+01:00macro man, I guess the guys who bought physical go...macro man, I guess the guys who bought physical gold are not going to be under any pressure to liquidate positions soon regardless of price action. they may wake up and rethink the soundness of their investment in a couple of years. however the punters doing the futures, who apparently are net short at the mom, will have to take profit sooner than that. guess we won't see gold dropping like a rock any time soon, short squeeze at some point more likely maybe?<br /><br />thank you for the blog, I am a big fan.B. A.https://www.blogger.com/profile/07349828116672888275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76589634426670164592010-07-29T04:57:56.226+01:002010-07-29T04:57:56.226+01:00the errors are a bit heteroskedastic and the resid...<em>the errors are a bit heteroskedastic and the residuals do seem to bunch</em><br /><br />In an investment time series? I'm shocked.. shocked!<br /><br />FD: short GLD, small.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40411885326624333592010-07-29T00:40:32.768+01:002010-07-29T00:40:32.768+01:00TMM
You seem to sweating on this GLD-US < GBS-...TMM<br /><br />You seem to sweating on this GLD-US < GBS-LN chart,<br /><br />Heres a thought, imagine USA muddles through, even dips slightly in recession, but let's face it it never really has got out of one, the powers that be are successful in numbing the masses in the now changed enviroment of frugality, NO QE = no soup for you.<br /><br />Low rates forever ( historically) now the bet on gold becomes only an eachway bet, at best.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11882601304613626929noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31540964389451847552010-07-29T00:33:50.615+01:002010-07-29T00:33:50.615+01:00Demand in Au is based on sound fundamentals ... um...Demand in Au is based on sound fundamentals ... ummm if I can think of one or two ... fear and deflation. If inflation was to break out (and a solid bull market enveloped the investing community) then the idea of holding the barbaric metal would irk me.<br />Needless to say the inherent value is in the eye of the beholder. Gold nuts see the moon (and hold the shotguns and have the 'out of date' baked beans), I see preservation of that inherent value.<br />I am not a professional trader, just an investor who wants to protect 'my' capital base and when I read about the cocoa bean trade, the silver market and the to big to fail entities, hft's, the have's and the have not's, I realise that the world that we live in is an awful power-hungry, greedy place to live and those with the money 'maketh the money'. <br />So investments for me are looking ahead and attempting to pre-empt those greedy bastards, so that at least my capital is protected and I make a modest return. Hence a frequent visitor to maintain my knowledge base and extract value.<br />Appreciate your blog and keep it up.dahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11004074059470235344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3059877037175725842010-07-28T18:05:44.493+01:002010-07-28T18:05:44.493+01:00I'm definitely not a gold bug, and can't a...I'm definitely not a gold bug, and can't argue the technicals.<br /><br />But just to play devils advocate, let's assume the rest of this year were to play out like 2008, with a similar magnitude down, but without the drama. But now, you have Americans anxious of the value of Treasuries, everyone anxious on the Euro, Chinese investors who already have too much tied up in empty condos that start slipping in price, and you might have a lot of people looking for safety. And once lift off takes place, you have a big chase by speculators and late-comers.<br /><br />Also, doesn't it look like the recent dip in flows followed the dip in prices?<br /><br />I don't own any gold, but I couldn't resist buying some JAN11 140/160 call spreads on GLD.Bob Stewarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14820206605014400382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45265606528285827042010-07-28T16:03:43.811+01:002010-07-28T16:03:43.811+01:00Couldn't agree more.Couldn't agree more.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16195461796309912058noreply@blogger.com