tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8360281671755792077..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Having a go at tomorrow's statementMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53506213926141995632020-09-04T10:22:01.317+01:002020-09-04T10:22:01.317+01:00main slot online terpercaya, bisa jadi penghasilan...main slot online terpercaya, bisa jadi penghasilan tambahan anda dimasa pandemi ini. kunjungi <a href="https://www.jackpot168slot.com/" rel="nofollow">https://www.jackpot168slot.com</a>pkv gameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14384831944255588089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28600344985267222432015-12-16T13:48:36.865+00:002015-12-16T13:48:36.865+00:00"Could next year could be about suprise infla..."Could next year could be about suprise inflation, which no one now seems to be expecting?"<br /><br /><b>Yes.</b>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11076658518636092112015-12-16T04:26:28.432+00:002015-12-16T04:26:28.432+00:00LB that sounds sane enough. I'm hitting myself...LB that sounds sane enough. I'm hitting myself for not lightening up EURUSD short on ECB day. Going much lighter this time, along with some GDX. Assuming the hike is priced in and DXY/risk continue their positive correlation, the guidance/dot plots will set the direction after algos calm down. <br /><br />Hike/dovish is risk off and hike/hawkish could be actually risk on (in the short term). No hike would result in carnage everywhere, especially the EZ. It would be stupid for the Fed to miss the boat this time when expectations are favorable/priced in. I think they've already anticipated as well how crowded the "One and Done" club is in the treasury market etc. and will cater accordingly. In the miraculous case that there's actually a truly hawkish signal then it should make sense to assume that bucky was just taking a small "breather" and ready to go on rampage again. But otherwise it's hard to see where the catalysts are going to be, and that would be bad for equities as well excluding any delayed santa rallies (which yesterday was part of).<br /><br />Also look at the diagram where elements of core inflation rising more than 3% year go up drastically. Could next year could be about suprise inflation, which no one now seems to be expecting? <br /><br />http://bit.ly/1NoClBEhipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30996965128197258442015-12-16T03:48:41.322+00:002015-12-16T03:48:41.322+00:00Yield differential between US and European HY now ...Yield differential between US and European HY now at a record level - from -575bps at the apex of the crisis to +375 today (!)<br /><br />meanwhile European equities strongly underperform the US. For anyone able to trade high yield this is one every decade formidable arbitrage hedging Spoos-Eurostoxx spread (already pertinent per se) with current HY differentialNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56590543124830103312015-12-16T02:06:46.522+00:002015-12-16T02:06:46.522+00:00LB's Contrarian Corner here.... let's thin...LB's Contrarian Corner here.... let's think through a few ideas. <br /><br />First, recall the recent ECB meeting? The FX market was so heavily overloaded short € that we saw an absolutely humongous Buy The News squeeze when Draghi failed to debase the currency to a greater degree than had already been anticipated. That rolled over into USD selling and JPY buying and it was equity negative.<br /><br />Now, this week we have a FOMC meeting coming up. The FX market is heavily overloaded long $. A 25bp hike is clearly priced in to the front end of the Treasury market and interest rate differentials e.g. US2y/Schatz etc. If we get dovish forward guidance, this might be a Sell The News moment for USD, and you can argue that the chart for DXY has already rolled over. If the Fed doesn't hike it will be absolute carnage for Bucky. Given the role of USDJPY in recent months, that would be strongly equity negative. This is not an outcome that many are predicting but I think the MM peanut gallery [at least some of the non-Anons] understands the logic behind this argument.<br /><br />So given the above analysis, there are a few things we do like. We like JPY as a 5 minute macro punt here. We like Treasuries, especially the belly of the curve, which given positioning in US10s could do 10-20 bps in 2 days easy on a squeeze. There are a few other things that are more speculative - like GDX and ZAR for those who like a bit of extra hot sauce on their corn flakes. We tend to be boring so we are probably going to focus on the long bond or the yen depending on what we see when we wake up.<br /><br />Anons - OpEx week rally, to be precise. Bull v Bear debate still on hold. For those convinced of a Santa rally, we are going to suggest that Dec 21 or 22 might be the day to get on board, but let's see how it plays out. The conventional wisdom is that a hike will unleash a dollar rally, bonds will get eviscerated and stocks will soar. We think all of those may well be wrong.<br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63163853280752661382015-12-16T00:17:46.382+00:002015-12-16T00:17:46.382+00:00Anon. Bear Market ....rally?Anon. Bear Market ....rally?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62611120627002545402015-12-15T21:47:06.420+00:002015-12-15T21:47:06.420+00:00Oil up almost 10% in 2 days.
Equities rallying for...Oil up almost 10% in 2 days.<br />Equities rallying for 2 straight sessions, Dow up 500 points.<br /><br />Bear Market.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51991642125944585262015-12-15T20:06:06.052+00:002015-12-15T20:06:06.052+00:00Maybe the FOMC info will be leaked to HFT firms (l...Maybe the FOMC info will be leaked to HFT firms (like it was before) ?<br /><br />Look here's the evidence (from the HFT firm themselves) showing previous FOMC data leaks:<br />http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/4436.html<br />http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/4441.html<br />https://sniperinmahwah.wordpress.com/2013/12/04/the-fed-robbery-new-evidence/<br />https://secure.fia.org/ptg-downloads/FIA-PTG-Statement-10-2-2013.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61163670000379265402015-12-15T19:56:48.199+00:002015-12-15T19:56:48.199+00:00Thank you for a lovely post from the future. This...Thank you for a lovely post from the future. This about captures it all. I do think that financial stability will be discussed along with the dollar, energy and high yield during the press conference. At that time, perhaps Dame Yellen will indicate what would be on her hypothetical QE4 shopping list as well. Not that it has come to that. But I suspect if any spillover from junk into equities happens, the Fed will put on their "Its a liquidity problem, not a solvency problem" and put on their work overalls and head promptly to the printers. <br /><br />- beachdude<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7215212312675992702015-12-15T19:02:16.350+00:002015-12-15T19:02:16.350+00:00Gun to head, I think we squeeze higher here, and m...Gun to head, I think we squeeze higher here, and make new highs into Q1. Fundamentals look sh't, but call it a hunch, and would also be in line with my game plan since the August/September puke. <br /><br />The credit market debacle is serious and will blow up, but it can fester for a while before it really hits home, that the is the problem with these things. <br /><br />We're arguably in the part of the cycle where maximum damage is handed out to BOTH long and short punters, before the inevitable slide lower. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75156207842973399832015-12-15T18:06:54.644+00:002015-12-15T18:06:54.644+00:00@washedup at 1.40 - thanks, that made me giggle.
C...@washedup at 1.40 - thanks, that made me giggle.<br />Chris<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9311220999023007852015-12-15T16:44:47.312+00:002015-12-15T16:44:47.312+00:00AAII Bullish percentage in December. Perhaps we [t...AAII Bullish percentage in December. Perhaps we [the market] are a bit too negative on Equities here, even though the charts & breadth look horrible. <br /><br />http://imgur.com/HRPSPTs<br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76590694212744408592015-12-15T15:59:34.321+00:002015-12-15T15:59:34.321+00:00Options expiration week dynamics in play again her...Options expiration week dynamics in play again here. Puts were cashed in yesterday on the dip below SPX 2000, and now vol sellers are going to do their utmost to make the remaining OTM Dec puts expire worthless.<br /><br />Even high yield ETFs bounced today, spread to Treasuries is noticeably tighter - but that segment of the fixed income space now trades in lock step with $wtic. Fascinating. The real bottom for high yield will presumably only arrive once we see the low for crude oil, and that will not come until 2016, maybe?<br /><br />Bargain hunting here at Falling Knife/Hammock Capital is really focused on the REIT space today. Dovish guidance (via the dot plot, as MM suggested) and profit taking by shorts is likely to ignite a massive squeeze this week. This is an area where you can calmly walk over and pick up 9-12% yield and then ride the recovery in the space for a couple of quarters of tepid economic performance and Fed inactivity.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53478904624019109362015-12-15T15:19:42.411+00:002015-12-15T15:19:42.411+00:00Der schwanz is lange und cremig.Der schwanz is lange und cremig.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44434366236783782102015-12-15T15:03:26.944+00:002015-12-15T15:03:26.944+00:00@ vlade, I think that would be political suicide. ...@ vlade, I think that would be political suicide. To make a range widening anything but the hollowest of gestures, they'll need to increase IOER to the top of the range. Can you imagine the press headlines: "Fed pays banks 0.25% more, leaves Main Street with zero"Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34982857596454173022015-12-15T14:45:28.857+00:002015-12-15T14:45:28.857+00:00MM, it was more that most people expect Fed to at ...MM, it was more that most people expect Fed to at most to shift the range (as you did), while IMO the real "dovish rise" would be to widen the range instead.vladenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51642771674918552232015-12-15T14:10:42.708+00:002015-12-15T14:10:42.708+00:00@ anon 12:18PM, amazing and baffling. Some kind of...@ anon 12:18PM, amazing and baffling. Some kind of a joke? Talk about 'seasonality' and stocks.<br /><br />RossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17500915973014974762015-12-15T13:40:13.425+00:002015-12-15T13:40:13.425+00:00MM - Yellen et al are probably furiously copying y...MM - Yellen et al are probably furiously copying your statement as we speak - therefore, with their main task accomplished, they shall no doubt spend the rest of today and tomorrow playing golf, engaging in tickle fights, reminiscing about that fun time kocherlakota placed a banana on fisher's seat, and debating tactics for their upcoming interviews at Goldman. <br /><br />The financial markets thing will be kind of interesting to see, in that the broad headline number is clearly not (yet!) worrisome, but the high yield carnage is - perhaps you give them extra credit for recognizing that nuance?washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53291893651910315482015-12-15T12:35:36.739+00:002015-12-15T12:35:36.739+00:00'The Fed and Lay's Potato Chips!'
Unw...'The Fed and Lay's Potato Chips!'<br /><br />Unwarranted Fed rate hikes, like eating Lay's potato chips, are rarely done just once. <br /><br />Will the Fed raise rates tomorrow as expected and then what will be its plan going forward?<br /><br />Read the article at LI here: http://go.shr.lc/1P4Go6KAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08420791979450335346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31085154601002378892015-12-15T12:31:50.798+00:002015-12-15T12:31:50.798+00:00@ Various Anons: Enough with this tiresome 'C...@ Various Anons: Enough with this tiresome 'CBs buying equities' nonsense. No, they aren't.<br /><br />@ Vlade, I know about the range...that's why I wrote the decision as "The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1/4 - 1/2 percent."Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35959071454407219592015-12-15T12:18:52.726+00:002015-12-15T12:18:52.726+00:00http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/...http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/07/the-puzzling-pre-fomc-announcement-drift.html#.VnAEQNLuvy0 Interesting article Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68016890455022559622015-12-15T10:38:48.301+00:002015-12-15T10:38:48.301+00:00CB's buying every day, but equities have gone ...CB's buying every day, but equities have gone down everyday for a while now? Not possible it is simply rollover and seller exhaustion? Ramp this morning got going ahead of ZEW. Most are likely done now until Yrllen clears her throat so drift up. If she is as dovish as expected, good chance of shorts covering and being done. Opex will take care of the rest. <br /><br />If credit and oil bounce a little, won't see sellers until week 3/4 in Jan. Be too many bulls with full bellies from thebtwo week layover.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16511856990051804632015-12-15T09:34:11.849+00:002015-12-15T09:34:11.849+00:00man cbs are buying everyday - given thats the case...man cbs are buying everyday - given thats the case its not news so why even bother adding it here.<br /><br />on a more relevant note oil and eurstoxx bounced so it looks like we may santa rally from here Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39965462394652989422015-12-15T09:04:57.494+00:002015-12-15T09:04:57.494+00:00anon 837 838 ...dude can you tone down on cbs buyi...anon 837 838 ...dude can you tone down on cbs buying equites rhetoric....pretty much all u have to say everyday?doesnt add much value here and we get your point - no point repeating ad-nauseam<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75482726520638259002015-12-15T08:53:05.015+00:002015-12-15T08:53:05.015+00:00MM, Fed funds is now a range (0-0.25), so the acti...MM, Fed funds is now a range (0-0.25), so the active FFR is at the top of the range. IMO, Fed can now increase the range, instead of creating a new fixed target. The easiest is of course to just shift the range to 0.25-0.5, which still allows Fed to effectively keep the rates at 0.25 right now and gradually over a next couple of months to move it to 0.5 (or not). <br /><br />An alternative that I'd be pushing if I was a voter, is to set a new range as 0-0.5 That gives the scope to raise the effective rate but at the same time sends markets a clear message that IF needed, the zero-bound can be had on a drop of a hat, w/o any emergency meetings or suchlike. Have your pie and eat it at the same time.<br /><br />Of course, it would create more ambiguity in the future path of the rates, which Fed may well wish to avoid, the question is, whether the ambiguity is really a bad thing<br />vladenoreply@blogger.com