tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8251986207081316647..comments2024-03-29T09:14:16.561+00:00Comments on Macro Man: It's a New DawnMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85496709133752676352011-07-20T13:46:05.612+01:002011-07-20T13:46:05.612+01:00@LB 0936PM
Re: can-kicking => safety trade mau...@LB 0936PM<br /><br />Re: can-kicking => safety trade mauling<br /><br />Will they <i>really</i> get mauled this time, especially as, as you say, this movie has been seen before?<br /><br />The response delivered by (let's not forget) politicians has to be so unequivocally awesome (in its original definition) that I am finding it hard to believe that it will be either delivered or taken seriously.<br /><br />Nobody seems to have any conviction at all about the next few months, and I doubt that the bad news fatigue will clear without at least a little bit of a panic.mt99noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38045676656844516422011-07-20T08:44:23.226+01:002011-07-20T08:44:23.226+01:00Even mainstream analysts are scared at the moment ...Even mainstream analysts are scared at the moment which seems to me to be an excellent time for a nice melt up in equities but unless the SPY breaches the 1370 barrier we are still range bound (playing the range of course can be lucrative for the adept speculator). <br /><br />I am also long Japan (EWJ) and it is doing nice and technicals look good. My short JPY position through the ETF is getting hammered so it is all square for my long Nikkei/Short JPY punt for 2011. I am also long SPY from around 1275 (through the IVV). I am still in the 1400 camp since I think the debt ceiling will be breached and that this might push through a melt-up. <br /><br />But I am also at the end of the day a macroeconomist and all leading indicators I am looking at point to a much broader and deeper global slowdown than what is currently priced in. It is not only about Europe but also ongoing EM tightening which is about to hit the real economy. The US economy is slowing visibly as well and lead indicators are close to recession territory. <br /><br />In that sense, I would probably get trigger happy to take profit quickly on a meltup from here. <br /><br />On a random note, Dr. Copper has strong fundamentals for H02 2011 and should be bought on "symphathy" weakness in the context of risk off. <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19103139437759746812011-07-19T14:05:05.464+01:002011-07-19T14:05:05.464+01:00if we dont get an equity melt up at month end, the...if we dont get an equity melt up at month end, then I'm with you TMM... otherwise i think can kicking is still in vogue<br /><br />AUGSGD skew trade is interesting, espicially given all the warning signals...but not easy for retail.. I was short AUD/Dollar for a while, recently just gave up (AUD/NZD might be easier though)abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71404356045387069352011-07-19T11:20:46.825+01:002011-07-19T11:20:46.825+01:00You've had be thinking this maybe the final te...You've had be thinking this maybe the final tell in the intermediate timeframe,the last couple weeks I couldn't put my finger on it, but yeah its the Politicians. <br /><br />I don't know what is ,its just like I've been rating and watching the same field go around and around the same distance from the same barrier now, bonds-spooz-finaz-oil.. when you know each runner well enough after watching them race against each other by the time they straighten up for the stretch home you know which one has had the run to suit...this time as we straighten up I don"t want to be on anything related to risk...so cash is king?= ust+ ref?Ambonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41330656957024315122011-07-19T09:15:31.801+01:002011-07-19T09:15:31.801+01:00Anyone up for some budget solving?
Budget HeroAnyone up for some budget solving?<br /><br /><a href="http://marketplace.publicradio.org/features/budget_hero/" rel="nofollow">Budget Hero</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45254504319028106122011-07-19T02:50:55.276+01:002011-07-19T02:50:55.276+01:00So exactly what is getting "toasted" in ...So exactly what is getting "toasted" in the US. Bank stocks..who cares..that's due to the continued deleveraging cycle in the US. The S&P is 5% off its top.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74717984633796906812011-07-19T02:15:14.497+01:002011-07-19T02:15:14.497+01:00Still decoupling ? Noted. O now the west coast bea...Still decoupling ? Noted. O now the west coast beach crowd are correct after all? you are too modest now :)<br /><br />Let us have a piece on "Brits/US can Fly" soon, along the lines of "Repelling Hannibal". Enjoying every piece, old men :oAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19384441748237467702011-07-18T21:36:03.479+01:002011-07-18T21:36:03.479+01:00Can kicking = safety trades get mauled.
Expect g...Can kicking = safety trades get mauled. <br /><br />Expect gold and silver, the yen, Swissy, Treasuries, bunds, and JGBs to be sold.<br /><br />We've seen this movie a few times now.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2987555275281585422011-07-18T20:32:55.461+01:002011-07-18T20:32:55.461+01:00I agree. When political press releases and news co...I agree. When political press releases and news conferences are driving the markets it is very tough for a fundamental trader to make profit.<br />But that's what it is at the moment. So lets try to adapt.<br /><br />I am looking at gold and silver prices here and have been riding the recent spike with pleasure. Those two are the prime examples of political (stupidity) driven prices. And to forecast where glod&silver prices are going politics is the first place to look at and predict.<br />So what is in store in the next week? I think US "elite" will come to a "compromise" - basically kicking a can down the road, increasing debt ceiling with very limited improvement of catastrophic federal budget medium term outlook. Call it Plan B if you like.<br />My dilemma is how are gold &silver prices going to react to this. Will they go down as catastrophic scenario is averted or go up as it becomes more clear that debt pilling (and inevitable monetization from FED) is what future brings? Opinions welcome!Belektronnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32060374025211689422011-07-18T18:34:00.066+01:002011-07-18T18:34:00.066+01:00Is there any talk anywhere about the possibility o...Is there any talk anywhere about the possibility of breaking Eurozone in two, with South European countries forming their own monetary union?<br /><br />Seems to me they need devaluation and higher inflation which Germany won't give them.<br /><br />Now I'm a newbie in these matters, but I wonder why there's a lot of talk about individual Euro countries breaking from Euro and no talk about a coordinated split of Eurozone so everybody gets what they require.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78385448468845704402011-07-18T18:32:28.185+01:002011-07-18T18:32:28.185+01:00Here, this bloke seems to be able to perform mirac...Here, this bloke seems to be able to perform miracles. He should be able to deal with Greece no problem.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2015658/Matt-Whitehurst-16-cycles-75ft-deep-lake-gravity-defying-stunt.html" rel="nofollow"> Stupid Bicycle Tricks </a><br /><br />Silly Season is officially here! Ink-stained wretches will be paying top totty to take their tops off in the fountains next....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11338089972306348872011-07-18T18:26:46.847+01:002011-07-18T18:26:46.847+01:00Nemo, I have been long selected US divys only and ...Nemo, I have been long selected US divys only and Japan since mid-March, apart from a few play-dates with SPY and QQQ when we reached the bottom of the range around 1260.<br /><br />Have been taking a few punts from the short side here and there, when everyone got all happy-clappy. Not great today but having a lot in cash and hence exceptionally little risk on is definitely alleviating the pain. <br /><br />LB's tea leaves suggest yet another can kicking in our immediate future. Let's hope they can keep the muzzle on Mangler this time. The problem for most punters isn't owning sovereign debt, or Euro banks, we don't. It's someone else owning a ton of them and having to liquidate a lot of other stuff that's the problem, 2008 and all that....<br /><br />Agree there is going to be an awful lot of tasty yield out there for punters who can stomach some risk this summer. Carding a +10% this year is going to make you look like a genius in a low yield world.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67381564825940553712011-07-18T17:18:56.049+01:002011-07-18T17:18:56.049+01:00LB maybe so, maybe so. What is going to be really ...LB maybe so, maybe so. What is going to be really interesting is that if this goes systemic (and it well might) there will be rich pickings once the unwinding / reduction of gross exposures is done. I'm thinking that holding less stuff in general of a non index / sellable nature makes sense here. The odd tilt at a relatively low vol high skew carry trade looks worth it too (short AUDSGD - boring as all hell if things are good, worth owning otherwise). It is one thing I've noted recently in that people are too beat up by equities but still hooked on EM yields / FX carry to fulfill their basic hierarchy of needs. I see the trade, but if the Euro hole isn't plugged by week's end this stuff ain't gonna hold.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61786670482067223682011-07-18T16:09:06.411+01:002011-07-18T16:09:06.411+01:00Yes, yield caps indeed.
Reckon you can make a pr...Yes, yield caps indeed. <br /><br />Reckon you can make a pretty good argument in favor of buying DVY and LQD and just forgetting about the whole bloody thing for 5-10 years. Tin foil hats would go out of style and ZH would shut down and most macro punters would go out of business...<br /><br />But that wouldn't be any fun, would it, TMM? <br /><br />Glad to see Big Darren closed the deal at Sandwich this weekend. Guinness drinking golfers everywhere salute you, Mr Clarke.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8854819561939631262011-07-18T14:29:59.996+01:002011-07-18T14:29:59.996+01:00Oh blimey you did it again with the last comment. ...Oh blimey you did it again with the last comment. Keyboard's a bit blueberry juiced now.<br /><br />Thanks especially for moving Uncle B out of sight though. Turned the milk this morning.ntwscnoreply@blogger.com