tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8166939669479588489..comments2024-03-18T18:27:47.714+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Dipbuyer absconds, market dumpsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger59125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18764371265039647652015-08-26T14:27:48.169+01:002015-08-26T14:27:48.169+01:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Betris Mayahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10863753668638851788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86333002961921627032015-08-24T17:11:53.033+01:002015-08-24T17:11:53.033+01:00@Anon 1:47 - If it was FM, he caught almost the ex...@Anon 1:47 - If it was FM, he caught almost the exact bottom in equities again ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58600245776506766652015-08-24T13:47:21.363+01:002015-08-24T13:47:21.363+01:0010:39 is prob. FM10:39 is prob. FMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33838670832705059622015-08-24T12:19:04.272+01:002015-08-24T12:19:04.272+01:00Anon 10:39 if you faded my chinese short the day i...Anon 10:39 if you faded my chinese short the day it topped you are probably a dead manNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23246581935386221252015-08-24T11:59:57.697+01:002015-08-24T11:59:57.697+01:00It’s often good to focus on data and not on price ...It’s often good to focus on data and not on price action alone, two things to point out<br /><br />•The new home sales and existing home sales numbers were both encouraging and the YoY growth number of 12-16% is consistent with better than 2.5% Real GDP growth, I have a strong feeling Q3 GDP will be better and Q2 numbers revised up<br />•China news will continue to rile the market, though if there is one silver lining in the Chinese property data. Chinese home prices rose for a third consecutive month in July. Even a modest recovery in a sector that accounts for around 15% is a welcome boost for the economy. Home prices across China rose month-on-month in 31 of the 70 major cities monitored. Besides over last few months there has been very little by way of new construction i.e. inventory is being run down. This can only be positive thing when the construction restarts to respond to demand.<br />This down move is overdone. Be careful with EM but Europe and US, good buying opportunity.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12983141540994016097noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3510869143793099882015-08-24T10:39:06.513+01:002015-08-24T10:39:06.513+01:00Fading Nico has been the most profitable strategy ...Fading Nico has been the most profitable strategy on this blog. However even a broken clock is right once a day, and this time he got lucky. Maybe he makes back some of his many losses, but I predict his call for global armageddon means the market bounces here.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56736373389921451712015-08-24T10:09:45.653+01:002015-08-24T10:09:45.653+01:00David Buik of Panmure Gordon isn't pulling his...David Buik of Panmure Gordon isn't pulling his punches on the state of the world economy which has been running on central bank juice since the financial crisis. From his morning note:<br />Opinion<br />It is time for a reality check for all of us. Maybe China has been economical with the truth about its growth and future prospects. Maybe oil and commodities have fallen out of bed! Yes, emerging market currencies have been trashed against the Dollar under a cloud of threatened higher interest rates being implemented in the US. It is also not unreasonable to surmise that stocks are fully valued. Also QE, which at the time of introduction in March 2009, was absolutely essential, is starting to wear off in places. QE has also largely been responsible for massive rallied in US and UK stock markets.<br />From 9th March 2009 – the day QE was introduced - the FTSE 100 went up 100.5% (from 3542 to 7103) to 27th April 2015. The S&P 500 went up from 9th March to 18th May 2015 214% (676.7 to 2129). So how could anyone possibly be surprised that there has been some profit taking from wholly unrealistic increases in the value of many shares?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44963060301448324762015-08-24T09:32:00.036+01:002015-08-24T09:32:00.036+01:00Iceman said...
Nico indeed it was a good short, b...Iceman said...<br /><br />Nico indeed it was a good short, but i do wonder at what level was it that you got short but nonetheless kudos to you for holding onto the short. <br /><br />Mr T, i totally agree that the lack of capex is not the issue, but its the low quality capex spending on marginal projects using leveraged money that i think will come and bite everyone. <br /><br />I for one think that this move is abit overdone in EM space but i think you are right Abee, we need to see currency stablise before confidence returns. The indiscriminate selling across EM though seems to have opened up some opportunities for the brave souls and those with any ammo left. I for one have started buying a basket of selected asian EM currencies - mainly on crosses as I don't see it being the greatest trade to sell USD here ahead of an imminent fed hike this year (in my view still sep the most likely candidate). And at the risk of being called lunatic, I am also starting to fade this bund rally. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22753279401108193202015-08-24T09:03:22.097+01:002015-08-24T09:03:22.097+01:00Nico congrats on a great short.
TWINE anyone?
...Nico congrats on a great short. <br /><br />TWINE anyone?<br /><br /><i>Capex has been sacrificed to quick get-rich buyback schemes by US corporations</i><br />Tell that to the E&P names who have been allocating multiples of OCF to capex. Or all the downstream beneficiaries of that capex (steel, software, autos, housing...). I don't think lack of capex has widely been a problem. If anything, too much capex with too small hurdle rates? Or am I too focused on the commodities space? Does anyone really expect Apple to allocate 50B/yr in capex/r&d?<br /><br />Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5819354653395413602015-08-24T09:01:19.875+01:002015-08-24T09:01:19.875+01:00@MM "shouldn't we wait for it to be actu...@MM "shouldn't we wait for it to be actually down on the year? " <br /><br />Done. Be careful what you wish for.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14867549229625665582015-08-24T08:48:58.978+01:002015-08-24T08:48:58.978+01:00CBs helping one dude to buy a $175m Picasso, some ...CBs helping one dude to buy a $175m Picasso, some Chinese dudes to buy $10k claret and another board of dudes to buy back their shares at already inflated prices.... those CBs help noone but a few. It just does not work our children will read the 2000s experiment as the biggest failure in history, a truly cold-efficient systematic social class divider. <br /><br />Capex has been sacrificed to quick get-rich buyback schemes by US corporations. This is pure suicide for a nation's wealth at large, to the benefit of a happy few.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61990719087980191822015-08-24T08:37:14.441+01:002015-08-24T08:37:14.441+01:00they are firing blanks if people only have debtthey are firing blanks if people only have debtAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74985073762152816682015-08-24T08:23:14.863+01:002015-08-24T08:23:14.863+01:00CBs have unlimited ammo. That's pretty much th...CBs have unlimited ammo. That's pretty much the point of having a CB.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43576624053903186252015-08-24T08:18:03.561+01:002015-08-24T08:18:03.561+01:00Fade Nico....eh, um, er.....Fade Nico....eh, um, er.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57964631355778808072015-08-24T07:00:31.007+01:002015-08-24T07:00:31.007+01:00you had been warned that the next financial crisis...you had been warned that the next financial crisis (which is here and NOW) would dwarf 2008 in pain<br /><br />the CBs officials should be hanged for what they have done - it is of course to convenient to blame China for this mess - the latest monetary easing in the game - but every country is responsible for 6 years of gigantic malinvestment<br /><br />the $175m Picasso sold in May was in my view the final confirmation of the most distorted monetary conditions reached in human history and as you know, CBs have simply no ammo to give a hand this time <br /><br />the reward of being short will, like in 2008/2009, be mitigated by the pain suffered by many moronic traders and the jobs lost by family and friendsNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81326643489571741692015-08-24T06:12:29.478+01:002015-08-24T06:12:29.478+01:00If this is handled badly across Asia we could see ...If this is handled badly across Asia we could see bank runs. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9710250063031412242015-08-24T05:30:11.472+01:002015-08-24T05:30:11.472+01:0097% of Chinese corp bonds are A grade, yeah right....97% of Chinese corp bonds are A grade, yeah right......Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33436499341811353262015-08-24T05:13:50.078+01:002015-08-24T05:13:50.078+01:00MM, Chinese down on the year. What now?MM, Chinese down on the year. What now?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85004524715419315942015-08-24T03:37:01.210+01:002015-08-24T03:37:01.210+01:00thats the sound of millions of Chinese E-Trade bab...thats the sound of millions of Chinese E-Trade babies puking.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61911794239629292712015-08-23T16:52:18.870+01:002015-08-23T16:52:18.870+01:00abee no worry you are not the only one still beari...abee no worry you are not the only one still bearish wink wink<br /><br />meanwhie i am slowly bidding a basket of 10 or so EM currencies that have been destroyed vs. buckyNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2742789704540403762015-08-22T22:17:14.488+01:002015-08-22T22:17:14.488+01:00Trading against your clients...
"ITG’s propr...Trading against your clients...<br /><br />"ITG’s proprietary trading program – Project Omega – traded about 1.3 billion shares total, and 20% of that was in POSIT. While it traded 1.3 billion shares, that figure does not tell the story, because those are just shares it traded, and not the size of the orders it traded against, which are most likely many times that figure."<br /><br />“The Board was aware and approved of the planning and execution of every aspect of Project Omega in 2010”<br /><br />http://blog.themistrading.com/2015/08/heart-of-darkness/<br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60687200904599291212015-08-22T21:49:23.231+01:002015-08-22T21:49:23.231+01:00I thought that AUDJPY and NZDJPY would have moved ...I thought that AUDJPY and NZDJPY would have moved a bit by now, not emerging but normally good for a few big figuresAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89892454559381222212015-08-22T21:01:00.471+01:002015-08-22T21:01:00.471+01:00Interesting commentary from Art Cashin on EM curre...Interesting commentary from Art Cashin on EM currency unwind and the op expiry in 1987. Appreciate it's from a goldbug site but if you read what Cashin says..<br /><br />http://kingworldnews.com/art-cashin-prepare-for-more-downside-after-this-weeks-stock-market-plunge-compares-action-to-1987-crash/<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18292865295783408672015-08-22T18:52:44.230+01:002015-08-22T18:52:44.230+01:00I wouldn't touch EM till we see an economist c...I wouldn't touch EM till we see an economist cover titled 'submerging markets' - no predictions on timing.<br /><br />CV, I don't know about surging demand for euro exporters, but they definitely need a weak currency to have any chance of keeping the dream alive and it has helped their economies already - the only problem is, so does everyone else, and everyone can lean on the dollar only so much before the rubber band snaps.<br /><br />Bucky is at a very interesting juncture in terms of MA support - ironically, if this carry trade unwind sends USD into free-fall, knee jerk reactions aside, that would annihilate european and japanese equities, which have become hedge fund darlings recently. It doesn't really hurt the US but I doubt the markets would act like that. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46551013660096986442015-08-22T17:07:22.638+01:002015-08-22T17:07:22.638+01:00Nasty breaks all over the place; I don't think...Nasty breaks all over the place; I don't think donning the kevlar makes sense just yet. But I do agree with LB that EMs/energy will be the trade of Q4 and Q1. The biggest surprise to everyone would be if BOTH legs on something like long EWZ/short Apple (or pick any other EM/Pink flamingo ratio) starts performing. In the very near term, I guess punters will soon be looking for a bounce (Turnaround Tuesday?), but I think new lows will be made until a bottom at some point in October. 3m/3m Stock-to-bond return ratios should will tell us. <br /><br />On the Fed, I think they will go in September and then spend all their energy reassuring markets that they will tiptoe their way forward. As for the euro, it is no more a safe haven than the yen has ever been, but the combination of negative interest rates, QE and a surging external surplus means the FX becomes a carry trade funder ... i.e buy the euro in panics and all that. Incidentally, the macro flows support this story too. Forget about EMs weighing on Eurozone exporters. They are, and it represents a headwind. But the KEY story is surging U.S. and U.K. demand pushing the Eurozone trade surplus to new highs in the last 12-to-18 months. No one is telling this story (well, almost no one ;)) ... but it is an important one!CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.com