tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8160353300617878161..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Beginning of the End....Or the End of the Beginning?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43997723422791101482009-07-29T20:52:46.446+01:002009-07-29T20:52:46.446+01:00Yes I've been on the 5 minute charts with succ...Yes I've been on the 5 minute charts with success but obviously it's a different mindset...and sometimes I forgot that...and it cost me.<br /><br />As the other guy above said..very few or no trends so it's the only game afoot. Bugger, bugger and bugger. <br /><br />.......on the other foot, I haven't seen any comments here about the cap and tax and diluted takeover of the health care sector failure by team Obambi pumping up the market? Anybody like that theory?Professional Gringonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78836155279142946842009-07-29T19:44:09.575+01:002009-07-29T19:44:09.575+01:00Oh and love those Far Side cartoons, suitably surr...Oh and love those Far Side cartoons, suitably surreal. I feel like I'm trying to get into the Midvale School for the gifted.<br />JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1550942129000112882009-07-29T18:51:53.119+01:002009-07-29T18:51:53.119+01:00"Thought I'd leave a more specific foreca..."Thought I'd leave a more specific forecast for tomorrow's first time unemployment claims. Consensus is 585k, range of Street forecasts is 565k-600k. I predict 610k headline tomorrow, 630k numbers in August. But I wouldn't be surprised to see some 650k prints. That'll squash the Q3 recovery claims very effectively."<br /><br />2 words: Seasonal AdjustmentPragmaticIdealisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02880053999555989175noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31402014378161398452009-07-29T18:05:44.763+01:002009-07-29T18:05:44.763+01:00Bloomberg: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Excludin...Bloomberg: U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise Excluding Cars, Planes <br />Reuters: U.S. durable goods fell more than expected in June <br /><br />All this talk of HFT shenanigans gaining traction, combined with pre interpreted news flow, its no wonder the market is still so schizo.<br />Good chatter and posts this month, enjoy your hols MM.<br />JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32936084353922404202009-07-29T17:53:01.584+01:002009-07-29T17:53:01.584+01:00End of the beginning. It's too easy for it to ...End of the beginning. It's too easy for it to be the beginning of the end. Expect a good GDP number for US this week. That'll ramp China again.Joe Calhounhttp://alhambrainvestments.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69279704233837302572009-07-29T17:02:28.063+01:002009-07-29T17:02:28.063+01:00I've predicted recently that US economic data ...I've predicted recently that US economic data is about to turn worse ... especially employment data. <br /><br />Thought I'd leave a more specific forecast for tomorrow's first time unemployment claims. Consensus is 585k, range of Street forecasts is 565k-600k. I predict 610k headline tomorrow, 630k numbers in August. But I wouldn't be surprised to see some 650k prints. That'll squash the Q3 recovery claims very effectively.PJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1978855584673505502009-07-29T16:20:32.794+01:002009-07-29T16:20:32.794+01:00Is anyone seeing the chf vertical takeoff? I don&#...Is anyone seeing the chf vertical takeoff? I don't see any news on it, or is Jean Pierre buying any currency that is not his own?<br /><br />HAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72044838856402200292009-07-29T15:04:57.211+01:002009-07-29T15:04:57.211+01:00Red euribor has been trading very oddly recently.....Red euribor has been trading very oddly recently...something has definitely changed over the past few days in that market. (Hint...this might have something to do with the player recently cut from Team MM earlier this week....)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63230152363056152482009-07-29T14:57:43.226+01:002009-07-29T14:57:43.226+01:00Thanks, yeah was just looking at EUFOSC1 rather th...Thanks, yeah was just looking at EUFOSC1 rather than spread to policy rate as generally leave Euribor to Mr. Howard.<br /><br />Am looking forward to the return of trying to pin the STIR fly.<br /><br />Enjoy your hols!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30634550915337580652009-07-29T14:41:51.493+01:002009-07-29T14:41:51.493+01:00Anon, that seems like a fiar assumption for the US...Anon, that seems like a fiar assumption for the US. Obviously in Europe 3m euribor basis to the policy rate is negative thanks to the LTRO and subsequent impact on EONIA. I know some are looking for 'bor to trade down to 70bps or so, though I'm not sure that it will...after all, ront end EONIA is already on a 3 handle; at some point, the risk is that ECB starts draining to bump that up a smidge.<br /><br />Sterling seems intent on narrowing a bit further, though I imagine the basis will eventually stick at a wider level than $.<br /><br />But overall, I'd concur; the bulk of the narrowing is behind us, and I don;t really expect much widening prssure; policymakers seem to have cracked that particular nut. <br /><br />(All that having been said, I wouldn't be *shocked* if things didn't widen out further, given the rollercoaster ride of the last 2 years...)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1024276067553455172009-07-29T14:34:05.000+01:002009-07-29T14:34:05.000+01:00MM,
Care to share your thoughts on how Libor basi...MM,<br /><br />Care to share your thoughts on how Libor basis evolves?<br /><br />To see it blow out again would entail something coming out of leftfield to f*ck the banks and imo would see a rapid policy response, so am assigning a low prob to basis wider and don't see the turn as a major issue.<br /><br />We are now around 30bps +/- in US and EU, which obviously gives us a potential 15bps to get back to pre-crunch norms but would think that is more likely something that slowly evolves next year if at all.<br /><br />Consequently 25-30bps seems a reasonable assumption for next 6-9 months?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20092096869995851582009-07-29T13:56:11.764+01:002009-07-29T13:56:11.764+01:00He lost me in the second paragraph when he used gr...He lost me in the second paragraph when he used gross exports, rather than net exports, in his calculation.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39126859074237512122009-07-29T13:54:04.884+01:002009-07-29T13:54:04.884+01:00Interesting post on Minyanville about China's ...Interesting post on Minyanville about China's growth numbers:<br /><br /><a href="http://www.minyanville.com/articles/GOOG-YHOO-MSFT-FXI-uup/index/a/23756" rel="nofollow">Simple Math Disproves China's Staggering Growth</a><br /><br />There's also an interesting comment on that post from a Chinese guy who often posts on Minyanville about how China is going to take over the world. <br /><br />The US GDP number on Friday might be interesting.jbrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36455561431766185192009-07-29T13:28:54.894+01:002009-07-29T13:28:54.894+01:00Re: property. Good point about the greying populat...Re: property. Good point about the greying population of the UK...I get the impression that a lot of them are imprinted with the "bricks and mortar always goes up" mentality. Certainly I have never met anyone over the age of 35 with a negative view of property in the UK....not that I go out of my way to speak to them!<br /><br />Ya cyclical upturn is highly doubtful. The current conditions and expected future conditions simply do not lend themselves to a highly geared asset class working well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47967636034224742032009-07-29T13:28:45.791+01:002009-07-29T13:28:45.791+01:00The difference between China now and China before ...The difference between China now and China before the Olympics is, of course, that last year the central authorities were actively trying to slow things down, whereas now they're actively trying to pump things up. That the recent Politburo meeting ended with a renewed commitment to uber-easy policies is, I think, telling.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14908663281282944742009-07-29T13:26:53.292+01:002009-07-29T13:26:53.292+01:00MM - isn't thyat what people said about China ...MM - isn't thyat what people said about China before the Olympics last year?...and then what happenned..Macroboynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41300578520914302442009-07-29T13:22:30.061+01:002009-07-29T13:22:30.061+01:00Re: property. One must remember that there are ma...Re: property. One must remember that there are many retirees around who have good pensions and plenty of spare cash. Buying a property to rent out may look a good deal - a secure income source and a good asset to pass on to the kids 10/20 years down the road. It would not take much buying interest AT THE MARGIN to give the market a seemingly healthy look. But a cyclical upturn. Impossible. Jobless rising with heavy public sector cuts still to come and possibly higher taxes. Plus higher rates down the road when QE is over.Donlasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14400745649069349297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78302866666506359752009-07-29T13:14:51.503+01:002009-07-29T13:14:51.503+01:00PBOC made some noise yesterday did not bother anyo...PBOC made some noise yesterday did not bother anyone think you could still get some good perforance vs other EM before China tires out the CMD shorts may have to waitAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38271280573059888152009-07-29T13:09:17.282+01:002009-07-29T13:09:17.282+01:00If the S&P does fall back to around 900 and tr...If the S&P does fall back to around 900 and treads water throughout August then we are again set up with that nice head & shoulder formation going into September.<br /><br />Post-Labour Day is always hairy, and thereafter the notoriously fickle October is on the horizon.<br /><br />Just a thought.Donlasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14400745649069349297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7103615913210388952009-07-29T13:07:19.742+01:002009-07-29T13:07:19.742+01:00Competitively-priced properties, at least round me...Competitively-priced properties, at least round me, are moving very quickly. Bear in mind also that "property shopping" is a lesire pastime for some...if you can't even affford to go to the flicks, go to an estate agent and see a bunch of properties u have no intention of bidding on. You even get free coffee!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74399120563985347852009-07-29T13:04:48.587+01:002009-07-29T13:04:48.587+01:00Well, it is either an intra trend "bull corre...Well, it is either an intra trend "bull correction" i.e. the previously mentioned Feb 07, or Aug 07, both followed by ballistic moves; or it marks the end of the counter trend rally in an equity bear market. I would assign a higher probability to the latter, but that is just my own sceptical opinion.<br /><br />I guess we will know in a few days. Ideally a 3-4 day consolidation will provide a good setup and risk.<br /><br />Anyone been to/chatted to an estate agent recently? Buyer new enquiries are flying - supposedly the highest ever. Lots of interest - UK market in some spots seems to be turning into a "it wont ever be this cheap again". Two questions: The spreads over the repo rate for variable mortgages is pretty stiff - 250bps - and the min LTV is about 80%. Where on earth do these buyers think they will get 20% deposit from? It is arguably a lot harder to buy now than in 2006/07, and a lot more expensive.<br /><br />I am confused. Is the UK real estate market full of deluded individuals? I look at the lending secured on dwellings numbers and they are so low...is it a tiny amount of supply due to negative equity and "I want 2007 prices" mentality?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29155025702269282552009-07-29T12:56:09.878+01:002009-07-29T12:56:09.878+01:00so basically equities got lifted because the bond ...so basically equities got lifted because the bond auction went crappy?<br /><br />-> investors fleed from bonds to equities for safety?<br /><br />bizarro world.andriyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18318421694302298784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77507784044837047972009-07-29T12:48:48.555+01:002009-07-29T12:48:48.555+01:00There was a crappy 2y auction result announced at ...There was a crappy 2y auction result announced at that time.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32501162779417339962009-07-29T11:51:57.717+01:002009-07-29T11:51:57.717+01:00well, there was a lot of talk about olympics too, ...well, there was a lot of talk about olympics too, but shanghai start to sell off well before olympics<br /><br />I think today's thing was real, copper is weakening too and bonds sales might give some more insight<br /><br />BTW: does anyone know why 10y and 30y sold off yesterday around 11am ET?andriyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18318421694302298784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73718450959067039582009-07-29T11:16:24.723+01:002009-07-29T11:16:24.723+01:00There're not many trends, but alot of noise, s...There're not many trends, but alot of noise, so trading beyond the short-term is yielding a dismal sharpe ratio...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com