tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7860261094308577441..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: TurnaroundsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31965571420685620912009-11-10T11:21:02.772+00:002009-11-10T11:21:02.772+00:00interesting how the market is bearish.
I think it...interesting how the market is bearish.<br /><br />I think it closes 1200.joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85675639152338607512009-11-05T12:26:53.605+00:002009-11-05T12:26:53.605+00:00Amazing to hear Lee kuan yew still giving intervie...Amazing to hear Lee kuan yew still giving interviews at his age.SFOThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30065980135181558322009-11-05T10:13:05.282+00:002009-11-05T10:13:05.282+00:00Skippy, Nemo - you guys are weigh too polite. Are ...Skippy, Nemo - you guys are weigh too polite. Are you sure you're really Auzzies? NB: Nemo clicked on thru to your blog and your NYC IB "memo" was hysterical. Reminds me of the boiler room guy in '98 who got my name and promised me untold riches with unknowns in the B2C space. This after I just did well on WMT after things recovered and after spending five years as lead strategist for IBM's e-business team. Sheesh.<br />More to the point on your local research idea - have you thought about approaching Mr. Pettis? He's a bit of a co-blogging acquaintance and I've found him reasonably approachable and highly connected, as well as sympathetic to your views on loan quality.<br />Finally there's two recent Charlie Rose interviews, one with Roach and the other with Lee Kuan Yew that might be valuable. The Yew interview is outstanding for a long-term overview. Rose is online now.dblwyonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43195653154984232272009-11-05T09:46:38.842+00:002009-11-05T09:46:38.842+00:00Hmmmmm, was thinking that one of my friends which ...Hmmmmm, was thinking that one of my friends which runs a consultancy in Beijing should branch out (with some of my capital). CLSA does an okish survey but its more incremental info "are you lending more this month" rather than "what sort of loan-to-value ratios are used for your commercial real estate loans" etc. Its when the actual asset level leverage gets hairy that the system can have the beginnings of instability and that's what we're all after.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85314597784297327992009-11-05T08:54:03.388+00:002009-11-05T08:54:03.388+00:00dblwyo,
No probs. I do try to read non sell-side...dblwyo, <br /><br />No probs. I do try to read non sell-side research on China such as Pettis or Andy Xie for alternative views, because most of the investment bank research is as useless as tits on a bull (as we used to say back on the farm in Australia). Most of them are forced to have a positive view on China and many are used by the government for jawboning policy objectives. <br /><br />I also now rely on MM, and contributors on this blog like Nemo for 'on the ground' information. I have spent some time in China myself and had meetings with some of the policymakers, but the messages are usually fairly consistent, but it is more difficult if you don't speak the local language.<br /><br />Nemo, we would be willing to pay for useful research, particularly on bank lending.Skippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6946289045492365022009-11-05T07:57:04.881+00:002009-11-05T07:57:04.881+00:00We did see some rollover in some sectors but they&...We did see some rollover in some sectors but they're getting back up - my China consumer basket (Baidu, Sohu, Want Want) got hit but is coming back now. Seems like there's still a bid out there for growth. <br /><br />Oh, and a quick poll for you all: how much would you be willing to pay for Medley/Canonbury type report on China policy? Or, god forbid, some real data on loan performance in the middle kingdom? Maybe its just me but there is a market demand that is not being met here.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80264380672289597442009-11-05T03:15:05.297+00:002009-11-05T03:15:05.297+00:00Skippy, Steve, SFOT:
Spot on. I should (& ahe...Skippy, Steve, SFOT:<br /><br />Spot on. I should (& ahem did in the links and other pointers there) mention that the liquidity-driven Risk On Flamingo trade is inherently, and I do mean inherently, a trading tactic. <br />Do you guys follow Michael Pettis' blog on China Financial Markets. Best analysis of the other side of the coin and directly relevant.<br />The great re-balancing where they consumer more, we consume less and fewer $ float out is coming...someday. Meanwhile we're at the zero bound and the Fed will keep rates low for a long time while some other CB's raise rates.<br />Think we're all on the same page here. No structural or fundamental reasons for asset prices - we're in a new mini-bubble driven by policy and policy is now a structural factor vibrating like it was a daily sentiment shift. My mental picture is atomic level molecular vibrations instead of slow evolution.<br />p.s. - sorry for the late reply...how you pick this up. Good points all, at least imho.dblwyonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91805031402007374452009-11-05T03:00:10.225+00:002009-11-05T03:00:10.225+00:00You guys need to read Nassim Taleb's Black Swa...You guys need to read Nassim Taleb's Black Swan. Just because you watch every twitch of the major indexes and currencies across the globe doesn't mean you'll be able to predict it's 10 day move. I was very bullish on that spoo survey.Jeffrey D. Bensonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13278340373246734203noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57615934660937795142009-11-04T22:46:22.435+00:002009-11-04T22:46:22.435+00:00Happy day for me, went short long Treasuries and s...Happy day for me, went short long Treasuries and short financials this morning, both did well.<br /><br />LB, it's what I said before -- all risk assets rose March-October, all may fall together in the coming rout. Even Treasuries may not be safe. Gold may be the only safe harbor.PJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48465433140059259722009-11-04T21:34:07.491+00:002009-11-04T21:34:07.491+00:00It's getting very late for this rally and lots...It's getting very late for this rally and lots and lots of sectors have now rolled over.<br /><br />Indian Summer and continued ZIRP notwithstanding, LB thinks it's time for another chorus of "Summer Heights" because "The Bears are Back in Town" for the winter.<br /><br />The bond market bomb didn't go off. Tick, tock, tick, tock. Cheers, MM. Did you hear about the bloggers who got invited to Treasury? You'll be over at Number 11 soon for tea and scones.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42785998684332681282009-11-04T20:56:26.702+00:002009-11-04T20:56:26.702+00:00Hmmm...something tells me that Spoos flirting with...Hmmm...something tells me that Spoos flirting with a red close after that statement wasn't part of the game plan...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21574459664057306562009-11-04T20:07:04.410+00:002009-11-04T20:07:04.410+00:00Anon: You are completely correct. Considered the s...Anon: You are completely correct. Considered the steepener ahead of next week's auctions of 10s and 30s, but in the end did a straight short of the 10y. Simpler and more profitable, as you point out.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44625011521248858582009-11-04T19:52:13.216+00:002009-11-04T19:52:13.216+00:00Leftback: curious why you had a 2-10 steepener (...Leftback: curious why you had a 2-10 steepener (versus an outright 10yr short)?<br /><br />Yields on 2yrs might go up if Bernanke signaled a tightening (however unlikely), but they weren't going to go down unless the sky really does fall (in which case who cares about any bonds)<br /><br />Thus, it seems like the 2-10 steepener had all the bpv risk of an outright 10yr short, just involved more trades / commissions?<br /><br />My only guess: to be bpv neutral, you had to buy a lot more 2yrs than you were short 10s -- rolldown helped you a bit.<br /><br />But that extra carry / roll was offset by 3-4x the risk that Bernanke might actually signal the end of "extended period"<br /><br />If you were only betting on a curve steepening, seems like short a smaller amount of 10s would have been a better risk/reward tradeoff?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87056243740544844062009-11-04T19:35:12.507+00:002009-11-04T19:35:12.507+00:00Profits booked from the aforementioned steepener a...Profits booked from the aforementioned steepener and LB is back to sitting in cash and bonds watching the wonderful world of risk asset gyration. Didn't quite get it all, but it was a hedge, and you can't get greedy with hedges. Interesting that the 3.57% level on the 10-yr was observed again.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85544509543725136562009-11-04T19:23:43.466+00:002009-11-04T19:23:43.466+00:00More confusion courtesy of our peerless leader at ...More confusion courtesy of our peerless leader at the Fed. Hope LB still has that steepener on.Crisis Managementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39727900608231871692009-11-04T19:05:07.012+00:002009-11-04T19:05:07.012+00:00Gez: No, y'all's best efforts today notwit...Gez: No, y'all's best efforts today notwithstanding.<br /><br />LB: Is that a clock or the time bomb in my book?<br /><br />SFOT: Still have my Dec 12 deltas, small short delta in prompt against it which I unsuccessfully topped-and-tailed after the inventory data today. Didn't quite pay the top tick and sell the low tick...but wasn't far off!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52946871259392340922009-11-04T18:58:09.280+00:002009-11-04T18:58:09.280+00:00dblwyo: I can safely say the risk on trade is on, ...dblwyo: I can safely say the risk on trade is on, and energy the lagged asset is getting dragged into this move, defying all fundamental reasoning yet again. <br />MM, doing much in oil these days?SFOThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18390835464850972314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81977529333247878372009-11-04T18:46:48.579+00:002009-11-04T18:46:48.579+00:00Tick, tick, tick....Tick, tick, tick....leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11731912214088371702009-11-04T18:07:42.843+00:002009-11-04T18:07:42.843+00:00"Mrs Macro has always been good at quick turn..."Mrs Macro has always been good at quick turnarounds herself. You should have witnessed her nifty shopping skills today. Empty hands one minute, armfuls of clothes the next."<br />----------<br />Mr. Macro now may feel more pressure to be on the right side of market. lolAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17261780215401779922009-11-04T17:51:46.096+00:002009-11-04T17:51:46.096+00:00Mrs Macro has always been good at quick turnaround...Mrs Macro has always been good at quick turnarounds herself. You should have witnessed her nifty shopping skills today. Empty hands one minute, armfuls of clothes the next.<br /><br />Love your intro. The rest didn't mean much but at least I now know gold is on the up. <br /><br />Are we out of the recession yet?Pop T'arthttp://www.poptartlondon.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4274068820788861002009-11-04T17:08:06.737+00:002009-11-04T17:08:06.737+00:00Another tedious FOMC morning here in NY. The actio...Another tedious FOMC morning here in NY. The action reminds LB somewhat of the March 2008 FOMC day. Gold made a new high pre-decision, then... carnage. A 9-10% haircut for newly initiated bugs.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83896272986834935562009-11-04T17:00:12.062+00:002009-11-04T17:00:12.062+00:00No sweat, G. After all, they've both been ade...No sweat, G. After all, they've both been adept at manufacturing turds over the years....<br /><br />MM BlackberryAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28234390315609069242009-11-04T16:45:25.018+00:002009-11-04T16:45:25.018+00:00MM: A thousand apologies if my comparison of the D...MM: A thousand apologies if my comparison of the Detroit Big 3 automakers and big banks caused you a sleepless nightGarynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73967977652187610692009-11-04T16:07:55.375+00:002009-11-04T16:07:55.375+00:00Nice EUR call MM.Nice EUR call MM.Stevenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52409235204393290852009-11-04T15:07:20.708+00:002009-11-04T15:07:20.708+00:00Sounds like a terrific start today, MM. LB used to...Sounds like a terrific start today, MM. LB used to ride those rickety trains in and out of Kent. Now if you were in Geneva, on the other hand ... anyway, not to worry, nothing doing, risk is mildly on and it's Fed morning, which is about as exciting as... trading JGBs.<br /><br />Sorry about the unnecessary roughness on Gazza, BTW, 15-yard penalty, yellow card and all that. LB will avoid two-footed tackling with studs up from now on.leftbacknoreply@blogger.com