tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post776526474022191284..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Just say noMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57753097763406717002008-07-31T11:41:00.000+01:002008-07-31T11:41:00.000+01:00"the best way to become a millionaire with a short..."the best way to become a millionaire with a short gbp position is to start off as a billionaire with a short gbp position!"<BR/><BR/>GBP went from 2.4460 in November of 1980 to 1.0520 in February of 1985. Ahhh, those were the days. :)<BR/><BR/>As I recall, Soros didn't do to bad shorting GBP, also (from 2.0040 on 19920909 to 1.7289 six trading days later - and bottoming at 1.4169 on February 11th of the following year).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65335879848569036752008-07-31T10:40:00.000+01:002008-07-31T10:40:00.000+01:00The Financial Accounting Standards Board voted to ...The Financial Accounting Standards Board voted to delay until January 2010 the introduction of rules that will force banks to consolidate more off-balance-sheet vehicles directly in their accounts.<BR/><BR/>Robert Herz, FASB chairman, said that the move was made reluctantly after a staff recommendation for a delay because there might not be enough time for all companies to adjust to the up-heaval.<BR/>“It does pain me to allow something that has been abused by certain folks, to let that go on for another year,” he said.<BR/><BR/>http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/71f44a4a-5e7c-11dd-b354-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1<BR/><BR/>Long live the Banana Republic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67933394048854602702008-07-31T08:44:00.000+01:002008-07-31T08:44:00.000+01:00The code for the market neutral HFR index on Bloom...The code for the market neutral HFR index on Bloomie is, for those interested, HFRXEMN Index GO. Surprisingly, the Tuesday update doesn't look so bad.<BR/><BR/>Anon, the chart in the post shows a lot of volume on red bars...which means that offers are paid, rather than bids hit. It is my presumption that a lot of this is short covering.<BR/><BR/>OT, that regulatory risk in the US has, to some extent, been in place since Enron, via Sarb-Ox, etc. Sadly, the current incarnation is hardly alone in the world, viz the FSA in the UK. <BR/><BR/>And I seem to remember the Europeans getting into a huff when Citi jammed a few billion euros' worth of bunds a few years ago,....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57756869637875878462008-07-31T06:36:00.000+01:002008-07-31T06:36:00.000+01:00MM,After consideration, I'm left with the conclusi...MM,<BR/><BR/>After consideration, I'm left with the conclusion that US equities are sunject to "systemic regulatory risk" (have I coined a term?). <BR/><BR/>Unlike the garden variety of "regulatory risk", i.e. buying oil companies in Venezuala, or Russia, where they might get nationalized, or found guilty of "tax evasion",or "enviromental" failings, in the US, one needs to worry about the Fed, the Treasury, the PPT, and God knows WHO all, mucking about in the markets at the drop of a hat....<BR/><BR/>sigh<BR/><BR/>old traderAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5208343205111156122008-07-31T06:34:00.000+01:002008-07-31T06:34:00.000+01:00re: MerrillShouldn't short covering be indicated b...re: Merrill<BR/>Shouldn't short covering be indicated by rising bids as opposed to rising offers.<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure I understand the technicalities of that action too much and how you can tell whether it was buying interest or short-covering on behalf of shorts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66773083997963592802008-07-30T19:53:00.000+01:002008-07-30T19:53:00.000+01:00The question is: Why did KKR wait so long? CBThe question is: Why did KKR wait so long? <BR/><BR/>CBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33040601010364752302008-07-30T19:35:00.000+01:002008-07-30T19:35:00.000+01:00i'm noticing some slight outperformance in the yen...i'm noticing some slight outperformance in the yen recently...i.e. it should be doing worse considering what everything else has been doing. of course, that doesn't mean it's going to strengthen, but my bet says it will, and when it comes, it will come fast. also, short-term i'm no longer bearish on gold with today's push lower. last, i have a suggestion: for all you out there that can't naked short your favorite financial turd, just buy some yen in an ironic protest of the robust US banking system.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66487871018993926482008-07-30T19:26:00.000+01:002008-07-30T19:26:00.000+01:00I see the market has been hunting underneath the k...I see the market has been hunting underneath the kitchen sink for that crack pipe again...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42389766649928736122008-07-30T19:11:00.000+01:002008-07-30T19:11:00.000+01:00Short GBP (and NZD) are consensus positions --- wh...Short GBP (and NZD) are consensus positions --- which is to not to say they're wrong, but you're obviously vulnerable to squeezes. I'd also note that GBP TWI depreciated something like 12% over the last year (granted much of that vs. EUR) so one might question how much further there is to go.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21213971792888596912008-07-30T18:40:00.001+01:002008-07-30T18:40:00.001+01:00Anon, I'll post the ticker in this comment space t...Anon, I'll post the ticker in this comment space tomorrow. <BR/><BR/>Calvino, it seems asif you're learning that there's truth in the old axiom: the best way to become a millionaire with a short gbp position is to start off as a billionaire with a short gbp position! I've given up trading gbp until merv caves in.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49041806988704432932008-07-30T18:40:00.000+01:002008-07-30T18:40:00.000+01:00Anon, I'll post the ticker in this comment space t...Anon, I'll post the ticker in this comment space tomorrow. <BR/><BR/>Calvino, it seems asif you're learning that there's truth in the old axiom: the best way to become a millionaire with a short gbp position is to start off as a billionaire with a short gbp position! I've given up trading gbp until merv caves in.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65612774633046213172008-07-30T17:05:00.000+01:002008-07-30T17:05:00.000+01:00I believe that you can get the HFR index on the pl...I believe that you can get the HFR index on the plain-vanilla bloomberg.com (don't need the professional service).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53459827249866695482008-07-30T16:38:00.000+01:002008-07-30T16:38:00.000+01:00We looked down the river and we seed the British c...We looked down the river and we seed the British come<BR/>And there must have been a hundred of 'em beatin' on the drum<BR/>They stepped so high and they made their bugles ring<BR/>We stood behind our cotton bales and didn't say a thingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81274359267372992222008-07-30T16:11:00.000+01:002008-07-30T16:11:00.000+01:00Is some one determined to push the gbp/aud to 2.1 ...Is some one determined to push the gbp/aud to 2.1 no matter what it takes? The gbp is overvalued against all currencies, imho, however the carry is my way with the aud. <BR/>Who and where is doing this?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49826270153638085362008-07-30T16:04:00.000+01:002008-07-30T16:04:00.000+01:00MM- You got the ticker for the HFR index there? Wo...MM- You got the ticker for the HFR index there? Would be good to see the price today...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54711878160523102782008-07-30T14:29:00.000+01:002008-07-30T14:29:00.000+01:00Maybe the financial rally is related to that SEC l...Maybe the financial rally is related to that SEC limits the naked short on a list of financial companies?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com