tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7667597713617291208..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Just in caseMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90879226750776837602015-10-28T22:08:01.500+00:002015-10-28T22:08:01.500+00:00lol@washed. Can you do one for the ECB & Merke...lol@washed. Can you do one for the ECB & Merkel? I'm in the mood for some cheap German porn...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54910839086340482362015-10-28T20:34:01.862+00:002015-10-28T20:34:01.862+00:00nasdaq probably needs to make a high before bears ...nasdaq probably needs to make a high before bears can play again. Look for FB to blow out earnings next week, then sell it like all the other tech names that beat big time.<br /><br />at least EURUSD is working ;-) One would think that would eventually spill over into EZ Equities, though just looking at EZ earnings for Q3, they are coming in really weak, missing on EPS and earnings growth is down 25%. So unlike Spoos whose EPS are still beating (rev's missing) Europe has a problem. Of course the market price will move before beat's catch up and already we see a slight turn in Forward EPS #'s but just a heads up for the EZ cheerleaders (count me as one as well)<br /><br />Fed day Yo-yo trade worked again. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52895778710679211572015-10-28T19:48:04.878+00:002015-10-28T19:48:04.878+00:00LOL shorts lose againLOL shorts lose againAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68246899312384977832015-10-28T19:23:24.162+00:002015-10-28T19:23:24.162+00:00Assuming GDP print is disappointing, short oil is ...Assuming GDP print is disappointing, short oil is attractive here<br /><br />Assuming BOJ stands pat, short usd.jpy is also attractive. What are the chances of them surprising 2 years in a row. Also, do they have much more local assets they can buy locally to expand QE?Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1155664603601177902015-10-28T19:15:27.648+00:002015-10-28T19:15:27.648+00:00Do we now just rerun the playbook from before the ...Do we now just rerun the playbook from before the September meeting? Short EM?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71198763611885930762015-10-28T18:49:40.191+00:002015-10-28T18:49:40.191+00:00Fed: Pssstt.. hey equity market
Risk: Wasup beatch...Fed: Pssstt.. hey equity market<br />Risk: Wasup beatches<br />Fed: Um, that, um thing we needed to discuss...<br />Risk: What? don't f@3ng waste my time again<br />Fed: Nah, just, is it ok 2 u know?<br />Risk: Is WHAT ok, and speak louder, and can't u see Im busy? where's dudley with the coffee and donuts anyway?<br />Fed: We were thinking of rai..<br />Risk WHAT? what did u just say???<br />Fed: Nothing..<br />Risk: Be a man, fed - stop wetting ur bed - and ur late with the rent again - u keep this up and ill send dimon to break ur kneecaps again - is that what u want, eh fed? for ur kneecaps to be broken like 2008?<br />Fed (sobbing): No, please no.. just forget this conversation happened.<br />Risk: Too late for that wusses - come here kocherwhateverurname is - its time for my massage - Im in the mood for that swedish NIRP style ur supposed to have learnt about - make it slow and good - aaaah there... like that......washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55472005398433319442015-10-28T18:37:32.431+00:002015-10-28T18:37:32.431+00:00spx/estx spread should start to go now i think.......spx/estx spread should start to go now i think....is a slow burner but this fx move should fire it up(this has been in the "long term trades" drawer)<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79099593841995960882015-10-28T18:29:53.742+00:002015-10-28T18:29:53.742+00:00On the short side, I saw there is likely to be a m...On the short side, I saw there is likely to be a mini-correction toward 1950-2000 in the next few days. It is more technical. But I would like to enter my short after BOJ's meeting this week, expecting that BOJ is going to hit the JPY long as ECB and PBOC have provided covers for them. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32303879560551980752015-10-28T17:56:49.766+00:002015-10-28T17:56:49.766+00:00T - I agree with the not getting carried away in e...T - I agree with the not getting carried away in either direction idea - that said, I will point out a couple of things:<br /><br />1. Macro is undeniably worse on a global basis than it was last year in Q4 - I doubt we are growing even at 2.5% globally<br />2. The most common hedge fund trade was to be long stocks like valeant and other merger-arg plays de-jure, with short spoos as a hedge - worked like a charm for a couple of years and then the last 3 weeks happened - that trade being reversed is in large part why equity indices are rallying - you could argue many fund that were long 'value' names in healthcare didn't realize their hedges (the credit hedges have gone nowhere, by the way) would essentially make them act short GOOGL, AMZN, and AAPL - ouch! <br /><br />Now, the fact that its a short squeeze doesn't make it any less likely to get out of hand, especially if, as LB and MM have alluded to, the seasonal gamma chasers step in, but I will make the same point I have been making for a while. The environment smells more and more treacherous, central bank dovishness or not. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56973064975708060072015-10-28T17:26:21.965+00:002015-10-28T17:26:21.965+00:00Somebody took and beating and got hurt pretty bad....Somebody took and beating and got hurt pretty bad...<br /><br />Carlyle-Owned Hedge-Fund won’t immediately pay back about two thirds of nearly $2 billion investors recently asked to withdraw<br />Several Claren Road clients said they were dismayed because the firm had repeatedly represented to its clients that its portfolio was highly liquid—meaning wagers could be unwound easily.<br /><br />http://www.wsj.com/articles/carlyle-owned-hedge-fund-firm-hands-investors-a-big-iou-1446028815<br /><br />Many more to come. Just tip of the iceberg. Welcome to hell.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44948400316754932252015-10-28T16:52:13.225+00:002015-10-28T16:52:13.225+00:00#Sweden's bond yields negative out to 5yrs, Sw... #Sweden's bond yields negative out to 5yrs, Switzerland's yields negative out to 10yrs, Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34733327386601731222015-10-28T15:40:12.616+00:002015-10-28T15:40:12.616+00:00re mr t 3;31
personally i am very bearish but not...re mr t 3;31<br /><br />personally i am very bearish but not looking for a system collapse..bearish as i was , i did stick my hand out at the end of last month but my bearish on the us markets stems pretty much on a valuation level and i also feel CBs running out of ammo in the sense that each iteration has smaller shelf life in terms of effect<br /><br />that was me commenting on 2:36<br /><br />good luck all into year endAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71902726363621462342015-10-28T15:32:08.857+00:002015-10-28T15:32:08.857+00:00Another 10y German Bund auction failure. Bids for ...Another 10y German Bund auction failure. Bids for €2.97bn of 10y Bunds vs €3bn goal. German 2y yields drop to -0.35%, lowest level in history. Yields negative out to 6 years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2757393225773038312015-10-28T15:31:55.537+00:002015-10-28T15:31:55.537+00:00Still sounds like people are too bearish, or at le...Still sounds like people are too bearish, or at least bipolar. The high probability outcome is somewhere between "IBVC moonshot" and "system collapse". The time spent finding reasons why we are looking at system collapse would be better spent looking for higher probability trades imho.<br /><br />The macro policy systems to me seem much more stable than unstable - instability and capital slosh arising from policy variability which is gone. Have we ever seen a period of G10+ policy being so tightly aligned? We see subtle tightening and loosening via DXY and rates, maybe thats all we'll get - policy going in different directions in such a tightly coupled global economy makes little sense.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10749628216605452302015-10-28T15:23:32.791+00:002015-10-28T15:23:32.791+00:00BBG:RBS Sees 'QE Infinity' From Global Cen...BBG:RBS Sees 'QE Infinity' From Global Central Banks<br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-10-12/rbs-sees-qe-infinity-from-global-central-banksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75971181387259365332015-10-28T14:55:34.604+00:002015-10-28T14:55:34.604+00:00Danielle Dimartino lays it all out on what the Fed...<br />Danielle Dimartino lays it all out on what the Fed fears on Bloomberg<br /><br />Starts at 22 minutes: Ends after 4 minutes. Seems interview was cut.<br /><br />http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/News/Surveillance/vWsKUCc6Dx5w.mp3<br /><br />Fed preventing price discovery from ever occurring . They fear it.<br /><br />Tomorrow 1 year anniversary of the end of the taper and still waiting for the first .25 rate increase.<br /><br />Don't know where the systemic risk is but they know it's there in a 210 trillion dollar debt market. Saw potential ripple effects of minor China devaluation.<br /><br />Credit can't find a natural home Corporations after buying back shares now doing acquisitions. Hitting the upper limits on financial engineering.<br /><br />Pension fund desperation. 7 years into zero interest rates and pension funds still assuming 7.68 percent return.<br /><br />169 billion added to high risk private equity credit type funds since 2012 <br /><br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26235618837035363842015-10-28T14:36:29.241+00:002015-10-28T14:36:29.241+00:00this TINA mentality in equities has been relentles...this TINA mentality in equities has been relentless.I had been short over summer and caught bounce well but reshorted too soon-spx 2020 ish ,for now have bought some 2100 calls to stop me out but i feel risk reward here looks very compelling on the short side given where spx 2016 estimates are. <br />i like the pundits on tv talking about numbers ex energy being ok...in that case how do numbers ex apple look please?<br />fed on hold being a reason to push new highs sounds very sill but price pays for now...<br />I'm short and sitting tight with stops defined<br />BTW do we think lows for the year are in- that would be the biggest surprise into year end!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14974345342448182112015-10-28T14:22:11.454+00:002015-10-28T14:22:11.454+00:00Excellent synopsis of where we currently areExcellent synopsis of where we currently areAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71173385148314083162015-10-28T14:03:07.027+00:002015-10-28T14:03:07.027+00:00In re 'shocker GDP', videlicet http://www....In re 'shocker GDP', videlicet http://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx<br /><br />Q3 is coming in around 1. From over 3, blue-chip consensus is down to 2 and sinking.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50964450297355196492015-10-28T13:13:21.089+00:002015-10-28T13:13:21.089+00:00It seems to me that the path taken by global centr...It seems to me that the path taken by global central banks has slowly allowed our daily thinking to deviate a long way from 2008. As I review the overnight economic news more and more of the focus is on housing and equities, as was expected and desired by bankers when perpetual ZIRP became the law. But others correctly note the death of manufacturing,not just in the US, but now a significant decrease in China, a la steel. I understand the trader's mentality, I have been a critic of Hussman, who understands what is happening, but allows his funds to have losses because he trades more like a professor than a trader. But at some point it seems to me that the slow, engulfing ooze of the La Brea of extended global debt and waning demand will catch up with equities, including the US. When comes the child to say that the Fed remaining on hold has no clothes? So far, I have been amazed... Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48973501150602370752015-10-28T11:48:31.277+00:002015-10-28T11:48:31.277+00:00So the score so far on central bank tightening has...So the score so far on central bank tightening has been:<br />1) every central bank that actually hiked since 2009 has had to give it back<br />2) every central bank that had a hiking bias has gone neutral or dovish<br /><br />Except the Fed until recently, so my base case scenario is that the Fed will be giving up on the tightening bias in the next 6 months. ECB, Japan, China, EM, Comm-bloc will probably ease further, and the Fed itself may take on the full foetal position if leading indicators weaken further. In which case the monetary divergence remains about the same and there is likely to be range movement in DXY unless spoos breaks down. It is hard to imagine a dollar breakout to the upside without further monetary divergence or without some real risk aversion/breakdown spoos. <br /><br />Although I'm bearish commodities, I'm wary of shorting comm-bloc or EM FX here as a U.S slowdown, if it occurs could cause a final pullback in DXY. I still think short spoos is setting up to be very attractive and although frustrating to date it will be likely be payday sometime in the next few months. Worth persisting with testing with small shorts with tight stops on spoos IMO. <br /><br />Here is my fantasy for the week: dovish, but not too dovish, just right dovish FOMC, I wake up to short spoos around 2080-2100 and then shocker GDP print. Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20358004889329460342015-10-28T11:22:30.085+00:002015-10-28T11:22:30.085+00:00Riksbank is targeting the wrong inflation...
https...Riksbank is targeting the wrong inflation...<br />https://twitter.com/auaurelija/status/659325455368105984<br /><br />...and not just Riksbank, but every other central banks, blowing bubbles in asset prices (property, equities) whilst simultaneously destroying jobs, home affordability and increasing debt burdens. All of which destroyed the real economy and widens the wealth gap.<br /><br />The final outcome is likely to be a series of sovereign debt crises, and massive political turmoil, the overthrow of many western governments and the execution/imprisonment of central bankers. Sounds far-fetched? Examine the recent Portuguese elections, the EU immigration crisis, Brexit possibilities and the rise of nationalism/extreme politics in both Europe and the US. Examine also Iceland's continued imprisonment of bankers from 2008. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39846359355899144952015-10-28T11:05:33.327+00:002015-10-28T11:05:33.327+00:00With respect to December liftoff, watch AAPL today...With respect to December liftoff, watch AAPL today. Tim Cook said a considerable amount on China; more in line with Nike's results than the China bear case...<br /><br /><a href="http://crackerjackfinance.com/2015/10/tim-cook-apple-confirm-china-strength/" rel="nofollow">Tim Cook on China</a>Crackerjack Financehttp://www.crackerjackfinance.comnoreply@blogger.com