tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7425440816246014953..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Pancaked!Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78445494437807062562007-01-13T11:02:00.000+00:002007-01-13T11:02:00.000+00:00Yes, the market has been fairly schizophrenic so f...Yes, the market has been fairly schizophrenic so far this year, particularly in EM. Fortunately, in my real job I've been able to take advantage of a few tactical opportunities that I haven't had time to post here: stuff like ZAR, MXN, and HUF.<br /><br />I share what I would take to be your concern over slapping on the medium term carry trade here, as I mentioned in the "carry me home" piece on the beta-plus FX carry trade.<br /><br />As for the dollar: the last couple of years has seen January reversals of the previous year's trend. That experience has taught me to let the market tell me which way it wants to go. <br /><br />Thus, having started the year relatively short dollars, I've let the market take me out of the long cable and long euro positions, and now find myself reasonably long the buck.<br /><br />I think the dollar rally probably has a bit more juice in it, or at least would do if Voldemort would just bugger off for a while. It seems quite clear that central bank activity provided the catalyst for the surprising reversal in the dollar soon after the retail ales figures. I just hope it's not 2006 all over again...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3170756554088354352007-01-13T00:49:00.000+00:002007-01-13T00:49:00.000+00:00I have been having trouble finding a medium term v...I have been having trouble finding a medium term view. I guess because I like to trade with positive carry and most of the high yielders have been under pressure. This dollar move has certainly surprised me.Bankerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03215896316185279351noreply@blogger.com