tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7422016648091585018..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: An interesting 24 hoursMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44691306148669166802016-10-11T06:34:21.503+01:002016-10-11T06:34:21.503+01:00Outstanding clip. Thank you very much for the bell...Outstanding clip. Thank you very much for the belly laughs.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6098676687261500302016-10-11T03:46:58.652+01:002016-10-11T03:46:58.652+01:00MM ... is there any chance that 12yo HFM is actual...MM ... is there any chance that 12yo HFM is actually your son?! :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88724402315468133352016-10-11T00:05:27.371+01:002016-10-11T00:05:27.371+01:00@ 12YO, funny I just literally showed that video t...@ 12YO, funny I just literally showed that video to my son.....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8325331572949650972016-10-11T00:05:11.117+01:002016-10-11T00:05:11.117+01:00@ 12YO, funny I just literally showed that video t...@ 12YO, funny I just literally showed that video to my son.....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35675526056119423172016-10-10T23:27:16.386+01:002016-10-10T23:27:16.386+01:00I would strongly recommend you all watch this Trum...I would <b>strongly</b> recommend you all watch this Trump/Clinton TV debate clip:<br /><br />https://twitter.com/colinjones/status/785598293808181248<br /><br /><br />12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-15820317063651631502016-10-10T20:32:23.352+01:002016-10-10T20:32:23.352+01:00buyers of bonds here anyone?
buyers of bonds here anyone?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37725135606719299802016-10-10T20:13:36.069+01:002016-10-10T20:13:36.069+01:00It's Not a good sign, when even zero hedge ha...It's Not a good sign, when even zero hedge has turned to JBTFD. <br /><br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-10/btfd-one-chart-shows-why-only-strategy-mattersSkrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23143417709348856152016-10-10T19:58:04.115+01:002016-10-10T19:58:04.115+01:00Thanks to 12yoHFM for that link. Arnade's othe...Thanks to 12yoHFM for that link. Arnade's other posts are interesting too.<br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87105116900634984302016-10-10T19:40:06.058+01:002016-10-10T19:40:06.058+01:00Some good points in that Arnade article, @12YO. It...Some good points in that Arnade article, @12YO. It does remind me of the whole "What's the Matter with Kansas" thing again, too. <br /><br />I believe I saw a poll today that put generic D support at +7 in Congressional elections, so that is getting a bit interesting in the House department. The danger for the R's in general is that Trump supporters will conclude that he is right, everything is rigged, and they will just stay home.<br /><br />Even though I am a D, there are lots of good conservative arguments to be made about smaller govt. in general. The R's of the last many years seem to have forgotten a lot of that. <br /><br />- WhammerWhammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67704670378781303922016-10-10T19:38:53.796+01:002016-10-10T19:38:53.796+01:00@ washed A respectful discussion about politics i...@ washed A respectful discussion about politics in the context of how outcomes may influence markets is perfectly fine. Personal attacks on the basis of political views is not.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66976913071634305352016-10-10T17:42:35.663+01:002016-10-10T17:42:35.663+01:00@MM - is this a new bizarro Macro Man where politi...@MM - is this a new bizarro Macro Man where political comments are tolerated, and dare I say even welcomed by the moderator? <br /><br />Be warned thats a slippery slope, and it may be best to douse the flames with a cold water discussion of the components of ur equity model and prognostications regarding eurodollar futures. Just a suggestion - its ur blog after all.<br /><br />FWIW, I think as far as markets are concerned, who gets in the white house is far far less relevant than what (if anything) happens to european banks and property in Hangzhou - how much control do u think Mrs Robot and the oldest frat boy i the world exercise on that?washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29381512498086886442016-10-10T17:32:11.784+01:002016-10-10T17:32:11.784+01:00Let's not forget the Electoral College: "...Let's not forget the Electoral College: "If the election were held today, Clinton would win the Electoral College in a landslide, 347 to 191. It requires 270 electoral votes to win the presidency."<br /><br />http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/10/UPICVoter-state-polls-Hillary-Clinton-has-Electoral-College-edge-over-Donald-Trump/5501476107212/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55948269684478528612016-10-10T17:27:44.704+01:002016-10-10T17:27:44.704+01:00@PK - Worth reading this viewpoint by an ex-trader...@PK - Worth reading this viewpoint by an ex-trader regarding Trump's audience, and the political/economic division in society:<br /><br />https://medium.com/@Chris_arnade/divided-by-meaning-1ab510759ee7#.s6rxgl4gx<br /><br />(Oh and apologies for the non-parody, serious post).12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6729273371191722912016-10-10T16:56:30.304+01:002016-10-10T16:56:30.304+01:00Long time lurker, first time poster:
To the Ameri...Long time lurker, first time poster:<br /><br />To the Americans on here: We (non-Americans) generally think Trump getting in would be an unmitigated disaster, although a lot of Americans seem less concerned? <br />Only thing I can think of to explain this is because Trump's hands would be pretty tied domestically, but he would have much more sway in terms of foreign policy?<br /><br />Secondly, (as with Brexit) are we in markets looking at the wrong things (polls, odds etc) Democrats vote Democrat, Republicans vote republican, so Trump apparently doesn't care much for trying to sway voters in either group and instead concentrates on the forgotten blue collar middle aged white Americans in areas like the rust belt who if they turn up could actually cause an upset? Certainly those are the guys Trump appears to be speaking to in the debates?PKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04431244850068774735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80498685710827242752016-10-10T15:11:25.522+01:002016-10-10T15:11:25.522+01:00@Flowthrough: "Bang-Zoom" ;)@Flowthrough: "Bang-Zoom" ;)12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54521186214941753772016-10-10T15:00:09.483+01:002016-10-10T15:00:09.483+01:00@Flowthrough, MM: if you haven't, consider sca...@Flowthrough, MM: if you haven't, consider scanning Gelman et al's analysis of <a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/swing_voters.pdf" rel="nofollow">vote intentions in 2012</a>. Tldr: vote swings are mostly sample artifacts and real swings are quite small.<br /><br />If correct, and imo it is, our estimates should be set by now and not change. There was always an outside chance of a D House, just like there was and remains an outside chance of a DJT administration. But those chances didn't change over last weekend.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58850665834784591992016-10-10T14:46:17.235+01:002016-10-10T14:46:17.235+01:00I see the Senate as more of a 60/40 thing, Democra...I see the Senate as more of a 60/40 thing, Democrats over. While I agree that the GOP remains favoured in the House, the Dems' chances have gone from virtually nil to maybe 20% recently . That's enough to be interesting as a risk case.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3241115530014384432016-10-10T14:36:55.634+01:002016-10-10T14:36:55.634+01:00Agree with wcw, very unlikely for house to flip. R...Agree with wcw, very unlikely for house to flip. Real Clear Politics gives GOP 231 safe, likely or leans GOP with only 15 toss up and 189 safe,likely or leans dem. Senate odds are 50-50. I give Trump 1 in 5 odds. So pretty bullish outcome is likely.<br />To 12 yo HFM, while I appreciate your trying to update my language, may I suggest on phrase from long ago that I think works for you. Namely, from the Honeymooners, "to the moon Alice".Flowthroughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15148652861530523764noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67940004898549935222016-10-10T14:15:43.811+01:002016-10-10T14:15:43.811+01:00This discussion shows a much more pernicious probl...This discussion shows a much more pernicious problem: Bias is so pervasive in news, polls, "Think tank pieces", etc. that markets cannot really incorporate even the most basic information into asset prices anymore. That there's not much of risk premium for this uncertainty built into equities (at least) is amazing. <br />Why didn't the economics Nobel go to Alfred E Neumann?comdtywcpnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47454521393380047042016-10-10T14:00:21.246+01:002016-10-10T14:00:21.246+01:00@EuropeanBull: experience from other places (forum...@EuropeanBull: experience from other places (forums) shows that forcing people to give a name does not improve the content quality. Only banning helps. Unfortunately.Eddienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68008656176811096472016-10-10T13:54:10.858+01:002016-10-10T13:54:10.858+01:00> a Clinton presidency with the Democrats contr...> a Clinton presidency with the Democrats controlling both houses<br /><br />..is not the way you want to bet at even money. For the House to swing, in round numbers there needs to be a +8 D vote in the national two-party vote. Current demographics in the US sit around +2 D, with a high around +4 if you squint and there is unusual turnout.<br /><br />I believe there literally is nothing DJT can do to alienate his base of support.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34349726307787375042016-10-10T13:47:03.138+01:002016-10-10T13:47:03.138+01:00Being too young to vote I've ignored the recen...Being too young to vote I've ignored the recent political commentary, and today have been extremely busy getting long EU equities. Following the turbulence & lack of liquidity shown by recent G10 FX moves, we've decided to flee to the safety of DBK/DB stock and the DAX index. (You may recall a recent similar strategy of fleeing volatile US govt bonds, for the safety of Nasdaq stocks also worked well). Naturally we remain long of US equities (because even 12yo's know US stocks always go up). Peace.<br />12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50853437753795456062016-10-10T13:34:08.581+01:002016-10-10T13:34:08.581+01:00Well said EuropeanBull. It is moronic that the peo...Well said EuropeanBull. It is moronic that the people behind those 'anonymous' comments think they have a gullible audience to influence on this site....especially when a high percentage of readers are not US citizens!JMTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73240095378421705632016-10-10T13:22:24.769+01:002016-10-10T13:22:24.769+01:00+1 on blocking anonymous comments
oops+1 on blocking anonymous comments<br /><br />oopsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70819556683872117952016-10-10T12:56:20.681+01:002016-10-10T12:56:20.681+01:00@Macroman:
Is it possible to block anonymous post...@Macroman: <br />Is it possible to block anonymous posting in the comment section? <br />If yes, I would recommend it. As someone who likes to read the post and the comments, I find that 90% of postings by 'anonymous' is entirely useless.<br />Anyone who spends the time necessary to formulate a decent opinion on any topic and wants to add to a debate should be able to make up some random nickname. Even 12yoHFM managed to do that...EuropeanBullnoreply@blogger.com