tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7412972658787391788..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Payroll day observationsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29927910297613221152016-12-05T02:37:31.647+00:002016-12-05T02:37:31.647+00:00just read the Economist article referenced in the ...just read the Economist article referenced in the comments, this is from the first para... "India, which has troubles of its own making (see article), has seen its currency reach an all-time low against the greenback...."<br /><br />one would expect the people writing the 'cover story' for the Economist to have a basic grasp of interest rate parity - or is that too much of an ask nowadays!koolbongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21178974274013108792016-12-05T01:16:03.547+00:002016-12-05T01:16:03.547+00:005 who thought they ruled the world
https://twitte...5 who thought they ruled the world<br /><br />https://twitter.com/WHLIV/status/805566249216438273/photo/1Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36424813633702408542016-12-05T00:58:22.391+00:002016-12-05T00:58:22.391+00:00LB, isn't it the net position which really mat...LB, isn't it the net position which really matters? Doesn't look particularly stretched in the latest release although it is nice to see the sharp rise this week. Mildly suggestive of panic.<br /><br />I am long ZNH17 btw.RHnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43973066144684669892016-12-04T23:27:29.125+00:002016-12-04T23:27:29.125+00:00Ahah sure. Nice speech from Renzi. Almost if one s...Ahah sure. Nice speech from Renzi. Almost if one should forgive and forget and not ask for his resignation, as "threatened"medMacnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53234453852681489842016-12-04T23:22:44.448+00:002016-12-04T23:22:44.448+00:00Will we be able to buy Italy (EWI) at 20 or lower ...Will we be able to buy Italy (EWI) at 20 or lower tomorrow?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84229475456761236702016-12-04T23:06:02.002+00:002016-12-04T23:06:02.002+00:00Austria counts for a fraction of Italy so let'...Austria counts for a fraction of Italy so let's agree on 3 out of 3.1 <br /><br />unless Italian president nominates a 'technical' PM there is a massive mess to expect from new Italian elections<br /><br />that reality should sink local markets for a whileNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21413687164511412372016-12-04T22:40:23.812+00:002016-12-04T22:40:23.812+00:00not 3 out of 3, because it was expected (that'...not 3 out of 3, because it was expected (that's what I meant). But yeah, 3 out of 4 for the populist movement. Short € since opening. But parity still seems distant atm (but nearer)medMacnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88573877036389700212016-12-04T22:31:22.470+00:002016-12-04T22:31:22.470+00:00looks like 3 out of 3
i warned you about the euro...looks like 3 out of 3<br /><br />i warned you about the euroNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63430503934764434292016-12-04T21:37:07.430+00:002016-12-04T21:37:07.430+00:00@ Leftback
Not so good for your EUR long.."A...@ Leftback<br /><br />Not so good for your EUR long.."Al Jazeera reporter: "We are whispered now there are exit polls suggesting big win for NO side."Widow makernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56779799295942527362016-12-04T21:24:22.859+00:002016-12-04T21:24:22.859+00:00LOL.
Short positions in US10y are extreme, in fac...LOL.<br /><br />Short positions in US10y are extreme, in fact the largest in six and a half years. Coincidentally, the last peak was in May 2010, and coincided with LB going all-in long Treasuries prior to a long and painful squeeze for the aforementioned Shorties.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43912906983477840492016-12-03T15:45:51.348+00:002016-12-03T15:45:51.348+00:00Heres what the FT expects on the Italian referendu...Heres what the FT expects on the Italian referendum<br /><br />"No’ vote expected to lead to higher bond yields, lower share prices and weaker euro"<br /><br />You know what that means gents - if the aforementioned event comes to pass, expect lower bond yields, higher share prices, and a stronger euro! <br />Music to Left's ears I am sure.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14876866881911245452016-12-03T13:52:36.871+00:002016-12-03T13:52:36.871+00:00Skr, isnt it pretty obvious what is going on. US e...Skr, isnt it pretty obvious what is going on. US equities grind higher, even as hedge funds playing sectors cause crazy moves, us dollar is strong, everything European still sucks,japan is still a punters paradise and china is stimulating its economy through infastructure. The real question is how long this all can continue with us rates mvoing higher. For now markets dont care too much in aggregate but interest rate moves take time to filter into real economies. I suspect we will start to see effects by q2 next year. Lets see. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81735501001644840432016-12-03T13:52:05.771+00:002016-12-03T13:52:05.771+00:00Skr, isnt it pretty obvious what is going on. US e...Skr, isnt it pretty obvious what is going on. US equities grind higher, even as hedge funds playing sectors cause crazy moves, us dollar is strong, everything European still sucks,japan is still a punters paradise and china is stimulating its economy through infastructure. The real question is how long this all can continue with us rates mvoing higher. For now markets dont care too much in aggregate but interest rate moves take time to filter into real economies. I suspect we will start to see effects by q2 next year. Lets see. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87730736328056419002016-12-03T12:05:56.596+00:002016-12-03T12:05:56.596+00:00I read that the Richmond Park by election is taken...I read that the Richmond Park by election is taken to be as a 'surprise' and a vote against a UK EU exit. <br />I am not sure exactly what 'surprise' is to be found in that a constituency that voted strongly to remain in Europe should also choose to vote for the only party (Lib Dems) who have signalled that they will fight to stay in Europe.<br />Clearly , I am going to have to work on understanding of the English Language. Alternatively , I can reconcile myself to the fact that on aggregate many people are unwilling or unable to separate bias from analysis when reaching conclusions.<br />Now what are the implications of that for a rational market theory?checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14967293118615759712016-12-02T21:32:13.246+00:002016-12-02T21:32:13.246+00:00From My observations here, it is clear that nobod...From My observations here, it is clear that nobody knows what the heck is going on.... JBTFD V JSTFR at the moment. For me it is JSAFM (just scalp any f*cking market) for a handy 1-3%. Fun to be had for the run up to Christmas. As me grandpappie used to say °if you haven't made your money by now, you're not going to make it, by year end. <br /><br />https://youtu.be/g3ENX3aHlqU<br /><br /> <br /><br /><br />Arrivederci<br />Skrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4257495635716999612016-12-02T21:18:28.913+00:002016-12-02T21:18:28.913+00:00ground zero input on the labor market by Gary Gord...ground zero input on the labor market by Gary Gordon regarding that monthly farce of payroll reporting <br /><br />"..... within a week of arriving back in the United States this past November, she secured two part-time lab assistant positions. That's right. My kid works while pursuing her biology degree at the University of California in San Diego.<br /><br />Why am I writing about my daughter's triumphs? Beyond the fact that she is my favorite go-getter on the planet? In a nut shell, it occurred to me that she accounted for two - count them, two - of the 178,000 new jobs created in November.<br /><br />No fooling. Each part-time post has been (or will be) counted as a new addition forged by a "robust" U.S. economy. What will largely be ignored? The disappearance of 446,000 jobs from the labor force last month alone.<br /><br />Sadly, the financial media highlight the headline U-2 unemployment rate (4.6%). It paints a rosy picture. What should they be talking about? They should focus on the 95.1 million working-aged individuals who are not employed (37.3%). If you want to understand why so many Americans believe that their children are going to experience a lower standard of living in the future than what they themselves have experienced, look no further than the labor force participation rate."Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19567119723994540522016-12-02T17:58:53.907+00:002016-12-02T17:58:53.907+00:00"If all of that were to actually happen there..."If all of that were to actually happen there won't be a 'below' left worth calling one and it will be the buy of your life time."<br /><br />Yeah, I agree with that. Also, playing the euro on a "euro" break-up doesn't really make much sense. But I think the market would discount it via weakness in the euro initially in anticipation that Germany(!) would be the one leaving, and the rest huddling up with a "southern" euro. Anyway, for me the best "indirect" € break-up trades for those really into punting this are. <br /><br />1) Short German industrials/DAX who would be crushed as German devalued. <br />2) Short EURDKK, long DKK MBS/govies<br />3) Short EURCHF, long CHF govies. <br /><br />Basically the dirty pegs run by the DNB and SNB would crumble. <br /><br />Claus CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57078579159087004302016-12-02T17:23:58.140+00:002016-12-02T17:23:58.140+00:00Lb
If I believed the market was rational then I wo...Lb<br />If I believed the market was rational then I would agree. Take it I stopped belie ing that a long time ago.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8680976470222921622016-12-02T16:33:38.892+00:002016-12-02T16:33:38.892+00:00We repeat the following regarding the Euro [as apa...We repeat the following regarding the Euro [as apart from share prices of European banks, which is another story]. Every weak "Southern European" country (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and this also includes France) that leaves, or threatens to leave, the € actually makes it stronger and closer in value to the (notional) value of the DM. The situation in Holland is rightly more of a concern b/c the "Dutch €" would be one of its stronger (Northern European) components. A Nexit would be more serious than Brexit since UK was, after all, not a part of the €. One wonders if a compromise solution might be available for the Dutch, who are among the most committed Europeans? Maybe we are getting closer to a two-tier €, as MM has discussed on occasion?<br /><br />Equity markets are set up to trade lower, and gold to trade higher. European events at the weekend might provide the narrative.<br /><br />Btw, as of yesterday's close, DBLTX and PTRAX were at 3 year and 5 year lows, respectively. Even the "Bond Kings" have taken it in the rear end over the last few weeks, so there is no sign that they were able to hedge interest rate risk at all. I assume all they are able to do in those monster funds is to play with duration and then quietly raise a modest cash position when yields plunge (e.g. June and July) and try to buy bonds at the yield spikes. Do people get paid for that brilliance? :-)<br /><br />Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42375958904578824652016-12-02T16:11:44.026+00:002016-12-02T16:11:44.026+00:00From Marketfield
November's ISM Manufacturing...From Marketfield<br /><br />November's ISM Manufacturing Survey generated a reading of 53.2, above expectations of 52.5 and consistent with a steady period of growth for the industrial sector. This equals June for the strongest report of 2016 and the 12 month ma has continued its climb higher to 51, its best level since December. The improvement seen in the last few months suggest that the overall industrial sector has seen a meaningful improvement in conditions which we believe largely reflects the stabilization of energy and mining industries where the prior weakness had been concentrated. This is somewhat reminiscent of the 1998 dip in the index, which was ultimately followed by a powerful last leg to the economic cycle, although that period of weakness was more broadly based than the 2015 decline in activity. <br /><br />The various sub indexes contained few surprises. New Orders were steady at 53, close to the 12 month ma at 53.7, while Production rose to 56, its highest level since January 2015. Export Orders remained positive at 52, but it is a little early for this survey to reflect the impact from the recent USD surge. Employment remained positive at 52.3, despite which the ADP survey still indicated modest job losses for November. The Prices Paid index was steady at 54.5, pulling the 12 month ma into positive territory at 50.8. Again the recent sharp increase in both metals and energy prices will not have had time to influence the survey, and it will be interesting to see what number next month's responses generate/<br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89900027732126239242016-12-02T15:21:07.321+00:002016-12-02T15:21:07.321+00:00"if the political throw of the dice is unfavo... "if the political throw of the dice is unfavourable in the next few months, (first in Italy, and then in the Netherlands, and then in France), look out below! "<br /><br />If all of that were to actually happen there won't be a 'below' left worth calling one and it will be the buy of your life time.<br />checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79528322016096916922016-12-02T15:16:39.805+00:002016-12-02T15:16:39.805+00:00"there is always the GBP at still a sexy disc..."there is always the GBP at still a sexy discount"<br /><br />We love it when you 'talk dirty'.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90074218674459322862016-12-02T15:08:27.444+00:002016-12-02T15:08:27.444+00:00Not to say that these elections aren't all pol...Not to say that these elections aren't all politically and sociologically interesting, but which one is going to move the needle on Monday morning? Austria. Lovely country, small economy. Presidential post is largely ceremonial, so: no, we don't care as much about it. Italy is important to Europe for any number of reasons, not least b/c of the fact that French and German banks have propped up its bankrupt banking sector. <br /><br />Interesting post here, not sure if MM already alluded to this - but the bund-US10y spread is at 27-year wides:<br /><br />http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/?p=12307<br /><br />European and Japanese fixed income investors will be anxious to lock in some of that yield in Treasuries. Bond bears beware, for the Death of the Widowmaker may have been greatly exaggerated, and it can strike back viciously at times. <br /><br />As for equities, I can fully guarantee that today's 2.4% yield on the 10y is going to look better than the (non-existent) yield on those cash-burning biotech start-up names once the IBB starts plunging again. That thing is in a bear market, by the way, and is making a right shoulder, so sell the rips.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48499518939323235302016-12-02T15:07:57.017+00:002016-12-02T15:07:57.017+00:00"Mr Shorty is going to experience some Cold S..."Mr Shorty is going to experience some Cold Steel in the fixed income market before very long. It is clear that there are a lot of hedges that have to be lifted starting today and into next week. The yield curve is going to flatten. Gaps will be filled. Bucky is tired. Goldfinger is showing signs of life, and Mr Bond is going to Die Another Day."<br /><br />Hmm, ok. I take that. It is looking like a decent setup here. As for the EURUSD, it will be biased for the upside next week I think given that it is more likely to rally on hints that the ECB won't do QE forever, than it is to plunge on a QE extension. I do, however, agree with Nico ... if the political throw of the dice is unfavourable in the next few months, (first in Italy, and then in the Netherlands, and then in France), look out below! <br /><br />By the way, this is also why Schatz has been rallying so hard I think. The market always discounts euro panic in the front-end spreads I don't understand why everyone always is looking at 10y spreads. <br /><br />I stand by my point earlier. I think Yellen and Trump could well end up with a USD bull no matter what they do. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61700311963088484892016-12-02T15:06:23.315+00:002016-12-02T15:06:23.315+00:00Agree with @washedup at 1:55pm: bond markets are b...Agree with @washedup at 1:55pm: bond markets are broadly pricing in a "No" vote in the Italian referendum, and the inability to pass reforms in Italy won't exactly be a surprise. Also, the "No" vote has consistently held a lead in the opinion polls. Plus many insiders believe Renzi will stay even in the event of a "No", and he has to consider limiting the inevitable fallout to Italian bank sentiment. My take is that it will be a narrow "No", Renzi will stay, there will be a contained sell-off and the difficult process of dealing with bank recapitalization will continue. Perhaps if the fallout is steep enough, it may strengthen Renzi's hand in dealings with the EU to nudge them to water down new bail-in rules as an exception to fix Italian banks.<br /><br />On the political surprise front, the Netherlands election in spring 2017 may provide more of a shock wave for markets to tackle.Maverickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577224793007980902noreply@blogger.com