tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7016353607886892327..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: China DreamsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1066899417155863622009-03-09T00:30:00.000+00:002009-03-09T00:30:00.000+00:00government can issue bonds, but they can also prin...government can issue bonds, but they can also print money, right? so no movement in FI market did not mean anything.Paul Denghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04807937701841770315noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44715738529146895482009-03-08T05:31:00.000+00:002009-03-08T05:31:00.000+00:00good post,best bloggerto knew more about data reco...good post,best blogger<BR/><BR/>to knew more about data recovery you must visit<BR/><BR/>www.ravi-datarecovery.blogspot.comravihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02768968014063138301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51466807397561322892009-03-06T07:57:00.000+00:002009-03-06T07:57:00.000+00:00Anon, I think that that is much stronger evidence ...Anon, I think that that is much stronger evidence that Lunar New Year was in January this year and February last year (thus flattering last month's figures on both m/m and y/y basis) than any underlying economic trend.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80339379057106797932009-03-06T02:07:00.000+00:002009-03-06T02:07:00.000+00:00Evidence of China's recovery:Beijing Hyundai Posts...Evidence of China's recovery:<BR/><BR/>Beijing Hyundai Posts Sales Increase Despite Downturn<BR/><BR/>Hyundai Motor recorded a sales increase for two straight months last month in the Chinese car market. Beijing Hyundai, China's joint venture of the Korean automaker, said Tuesday that it sold 32,008 vehicles last month, up 72.3 percent from 18,582 vehicles in February last year, increasing its overall market-share to 7.1 percent. Beijing Hyundai recorded a 17-percent surge in sales in January this year, ranking fourth in China's car industry.<BR/>Beijing Hyundai's success despite reducing worldwide car sales stems from the Chinese government's efforts to stimulate the auto industry, including reducing purchase tax from 10 percent to five percent for cars with engines below 1.6L and discounting the price of gas by 30 percent.<BR/><BR/>Hyundai's main vehicles Elantra (called Avante in Korea) and Accent (called Verna in China) with engines below 1.6L are reaping the benefits of the Chinese government's stimulus measures. Hyundai Motor expects to sell 360,000 vehicles in the Chinese market this year. The forecast is up 25 percent from last year's 290,000 vehicles. <BR/><BR/><BR/>Another Chinese car maker, Chery Auto reports that its car sales double in February.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69577215959536264962009-03-06T00:37:00.000+00:002009-03-06T00:37:00.000+00:00You guys are too pessimistic. The Baltic Freight ...You guys are too pessimistic. The Baltic Freight Index is still rising. This shows that the Chinese stimulus measures are having some positive impact.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78942534576660452912009-03-06T00:09:00.000+00:002009-03-06T00:09:00.000+00:00No one mentioned the possibility that the Chinese ...No one mentioned the possibility that the Chinese government is supporting the A-share market. Can't find the link right now, but I recall reading a story a while back to the effect that some Chinese government official thought it no big deal, even if they had to buy up the entire equity market to keep the CSI300 above 2000. For some reason a $600 billion market cap sticks in my head. It would certainly explain how this market has help up recently, while every other in the world has been declining of late.<BR/><BR/>I make the point not because I care about the Chinese market directly, but many participants in other markets are pointing to this strength as early evidence of a Chinese recovery.P.P. Mazzinihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01387319543957770553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30606290207132843972009-03-05T19:53:00.000+00:002009-03-05T19:53:00.000+00:00At the risk of proving my thick headedness…“maybe ...At the risk of proving my thick headedness…<BR/><BR/>“maybe it's just a case of my having already found my way to play the rebound, whenever it may be, and just not understanding why anyone would screw around with China when there is a "superior" alternative floating about?” <BR/><BR/>Are you saying that to “go long oil and copper on the back of a Chinese recovery” is the superior alternative? <BR/><BR/>TylerTylerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06265862490530746096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84250630768222141672009-03-05T17:21:00.000+00:002009-03-05T17:21:00.000+00:00IMHO, we'll see $20 WTIC oil before $60. I doubt ...IMHO, we'll see $20 WTIC oil before $60. I doubt that there is a treasury "bubble" when everyone is calling for a treasury bubble. I'm very worried about a continuing deflationary spiral. yikes.<BR/><BR/>Sincerely, another anonymous opinion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2681885418511871152009-03-05T16:56:00.000+00:002009-03-05T16:56:00.000+00:00Sorry MM, I thought the .45 indicated calibre... ...Sorry MM, I thought the .45 indicated calibre... Did you also know that Colt 45 has the dynamite taste? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qo_VociIWDI<BR/><BR/>Love the site, btw.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5229169613372690912009-03-05T16:39:00.000+00:002009-03-05T16:39:00.000+00:00MM,in reference to a post you made a while back - ...MM,<BR/>in reference to a post you made a while back - any idea how many of the S&P 500 companies wouldn't qualify for entry to the index now ?...from memory, was it 186 at last count some time ago ?...<BR/><BR/>cheers,<BR/>EAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39405783071398994322009-03-05T16:23:00.000+00:002009-03-05T16:23:00.000+00:00Au contraire, Anon, au contraire. I'm frankly a l...<A HREF="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2008/01/just-like-colt-45.html" REL="nofollow">Au contraire</A>, Anon, au contraire. I'm frankly a little insulted that you think me ignorant of Billy Dee Williams, the smoothest man alive!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81043403215141950412009-03-05T15:59:00.000+00:002009-03-05T15:59:00.000+00:00I think it is just "Colt 45" that works every time...I think it is just "Colt 45" that works every time. Here's Billy Dee selling that smooth taste. <BR/><BR/>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pK5HmuCMBMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59533092781324439872009-03-05T15:47:00.000+00:002009-03-05T15:47:00.000+00:00Q- with ukx making new lows what is proping mcx up...Q- with ukx making new lows what is proping mcx up given it's around 10% higher than it's lows. Do we really think these smaller entities are better placed than global players to weather downturn?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44878380700939658272009-03-05T15:43:00.000+00:002009-03-05T15:43:00.000+00:00us dollar to da moon:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fi...us dollar to da moon:<BR/>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4939796/Europes-banks-face-a-2-trillion-dollar-shortage.html<BR/><BR/>crude oil and gold have been moving oppositely for quite awhile now, first was long gold as crude dipped into the 33 number, and now some say it's long crude due to the 'gold-crude ratio' being out of whack<BR/><BR/>non farm friday on deck!<BR/>cheers, deacAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20630719540378936062009-03-05T13:33:00.000+00:002009-03-05T13:33:00.000+00:00Long crude short copper, as the latter is more Chi...Long crude short copper, as the latter is more China reliant than the former?<BR/>Foreign country + lack of any clarity + massive blind speculation = dangerous direct play from either side I think.<BR/>Frustrated by the thinking that it will be any country that will pull us out rather than the economy re-clearing at new lower equilibrium, politically aided or (more likely) not. So personally not yet focused on the rebound although agri stocks are showing some resilience, but that may be too crowded.<BR/>Is your tantalising rebound talk referring to bottom draw stuff?<BR/>Cheers, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36656250510751958702009-03-05T13:01:00.000+00:002009-03-05T13:01:00.000+00:00I think it is highly unlikely.....but I also think...I think it is highly unlikely.....but I also think that a disproportionate amount of office pool entries will go for it nonethless. The cost of being wrong is minimal, but man, what a hero if you're right!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55580674151321586342009-03-05T12:57:00.000+00:002009-03-05T12:57:00.000+00:00"Macro Man suspects that more than a few entries i..."Macro Man suspects that more than a few entries in office pools will be looking for seven-figure job losses."<BR/><BR/>Do you really believe that more than a million is possible?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51306260024201917092009-03-05T12:40:00.000+00:002009-03-05T12:40:00.000+00:00Nevertheless, the degree to which stock markets se...Nevertheless, the degree to which stock markets seem to react to the marginal newsflow from China suggests to me that there is a hefty cohort of investors, possibly concentrated in Asia, to be fair, that are drinking the China Kool-aid as well.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22941763404778871222009-03-05T12:37:00.000+00:002009-03-05T12:37:00.000+00:00Anon @ 12.28, yes, I think a lot of the stimulus i...Anon @ 12.28, yes, I think a lot of the stimulus is being routed through bank lending...which of course means it is less targeted- I can't believe it's terribly supportive for growth if money gets borrowed and then plowed into the stock market, for example.<BR/><BR/>Moreover, the likelihood of loans being allocated to inefficient borrowers is, I think, quite high; rationally, there should be close to zero lending for real estate/construction purposes, but I am highly dubious that that is the case...which opens up another can of worms at some point in the future when those loans go sour.<BR/><BR/>Perhaps you are right, though. Maybe virtually all punter <I>are</I> bearish, and it is the analysts and sales people who want to sell the story of the bounce. If so, it would nicely illustrate the distinction between the people who get paid to be right (the risk takers) and those who get paid to be interesting (the sell side.)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7460630367535508232009-03-05T12:28:00.000+00:002009-03-05T12:28:00.000+00:00MM, Isn't possible that the Chinese stimulus is b...MM, <BR/><BR/>Isn't possible that the Chinese stimulus is being financed by the Chinese banks? Instead of issuing CNY Govt. bonds and spending the way developed contries do, they authorize municipalities and provinces to borrow from banks and spend. So perhaps this huge surge in bank loans the past three months is the stimlus? Even adjusting the outsize numbers down for the off balance sheet adjustments and discount bills it is still a very large increase in loans. <BR/><BR/>Also, I find it funny that most of the posts here assume that being bullish on China is consensus. I am in the biz too and almost all the macro punters I talk to all say that China is cooking the books and it will end badly. China going down seems very consensus to me not contrarian.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7671393248810269802009-03-05T12:09:00.000+00:002009-03-05T12:09:00.000+00:00I agree that the situation in China is much worse ...I agree that the situation in China is much worse than they are admitting. Being short emerging markets, yesterday was very frustrating for me. The sell side pundits are sufficiently annoying. However, when you consider that there is a substantial amount of evidence at Chinese officials are being less than truthful about their current economic conditions, the situation becomes almost intolerable (for me at least). The two combine multiplicatively to create untruthfulness on an exponential scale. <BR/><BR/>I suppose that we should be a happy because this ultimately creates opportunities to position ourselves for when the true situation reveals itself.P.P. Mazzinihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01387319543957770553noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73867528701341437652009-03-05T11:29:00.000+00:002009-03-05T11:29:00.000+00:00Sales side pundits never cease to amaze me and the...Sales side pundits never cease to amaze me and their divorce from economic reality has become all the more illusory.<BR/><BR/>At times I wonder if their powers of alchemy are not best served in the fiction section of WHSmith.<BR/><BR/>Anon 10:51Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12783948595265806852009-03-05T11:21:00.000+00:002009-03-05T11:21:00.000+00:00Anon @ 11.12... Brad Setser is obviously the man f...Anon @ 11.12... <A HREF="http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/" REL="nofollow">Brad Setser</A> is obviously the man for big picture financing issues, and <A HREF="http://www.maoxian.com/" REL="nofollow">Maoxian offers the occasional amusing anecdote.</A>.<BR/><BR/>Anon @ 11.13, at the moment, the only real ways that those reserves are being used is a) to maintain an artificially weak exchange rate, as per normal, and b) to invest in domestic banks, providing a capital infusion to offset the write down of once and future bad loans.<BR/><BR/>They are not being used to directly pay for stuff domestically, though conceivably China could ramp up its strategic resource acquisition with them. Though if the stories of iron ore-laden ships waiting to port in Shanghai are true, one wonders how likely it may be...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65688851486026407152009-03-05T11:13:00.000+00:002009-03-05T11:13:00.000+00:00I am a China-skeptic myself and would love to be t...I am a China-skeptic myself and would love to be the 8% offer to any bureaucrat or sell-side economist's forecast. To play devil's advocate to your post and my own view, however, don't they have $1.9 trillion in reserves? I'm sure USD reserve growth is now negative and reserves themselves are exiting as quickly as they are in Singapore, Middle East, etc. But officials have said they will use this hoard for domestic stimulus. Whether that's net positive or negative relative to the removal of the interest rate subsidy to US real rates and the FX subsidy to domestic exporters is another question...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65374062693094821612009-03-05T11:12:00.000+00:002009-03-05T11:12:00.000+00:00MM,Any other China/asian-focused blogs apart from ...MM,<BR/><BR/>Any other China/asian-focused blogs apart from Mr. Pettis that you peruse?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com