tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6997668816776030215..comments2024-03-29T15:07:48.008+00:00Comments on Macro Man: FrozenMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45753830852475266482008-12-13T03:09:00.000+00:002008-12-13T03:09:00.000+00:00MMThanks a lot for the insightful graph on educati...MM<BR/>Thanks a lot for the insightful graph on education cohorts. It would be interesting to compare the current situation with that of 1973-75 (for example, Prof. Hamilton's blog http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/12/comparing_reces.html)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39367566050377044342008-12-09T02:06:00.000+00:002008-12-09T02:06:00.000+00:00With respect to the comment on lower educated labo...With respect to the comment on lower educated labor rates staying stable, there are non-tradable services that are stable, e.g. haircuts, dry cleaning and such. Any firm that hasn't already outsourced what they can to China is dead from the neck up. In fact, there is a trend toward hard to ship product returning to US-Mexico plants.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68021524814983584192008-12-08T22:17:00.000+00:002008-12-08T22:17:00.000+00:00Macro Man,Thoroughly enjoy your blog. I must tell ...Macro Man,<BR/><BR/>Thoroughly enjoy your blog. I must tell you how nice the courses are playing in sunny Sydney at the moment.<BR/><BR/>Not a bad bet on the long bond. However, the curve flattening trade seems formidable. A few were caught out towards the end of November.<BR/><BR/>Agree completely about the sucker's rally. Still short gold, long USDBRL. That's about it - much cheaper playing golf at the moment.<BR/><BR/>AlexAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08665331027399341600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41232218974926689932008-12-08T20:53:00.000+00:002008-12-08T20:53:00.000+00:00Did I say ice? I meant, er, lions and tigers raci...Did I say ice? I meant, er, lions and tigers racing towards me at full speed. Yeah, that's the ticket!Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5956470151850167032008-12-08T20:46:00.000+00:002008-12-08T20:46:00.000+00:00You blamed it all on the ice on the green. You sh...You blamed it all on the ice on the green. You should see today's Naked Capitalism antidote du jour for a more legitimate excuse for missing a putt.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32035110417829008322008-12-08T19:05:00.000+00:002008-12-08T19:05:00.000+00:00Only 8-10 years ago, "all" economists agreed that ...Only 8-10 years ago, "all" economists agreed that 6% unemployment in the U.S. was the floor -- if unemployment went lower, the "experts" all agreed it would trigger significant inflation.<BR/><BR/>Fast forward to present times, and we have every drama queen -- sorry Wall Street "analyst"-- claiming that 6.5% unemployment is start of the end of the world.<BR/><BR/>We have debt induced "growth" (is that real growth?) for the past 20 some odd years. any "analyst" worthy of the title would have to anticipate that debt could not grow faster than the economy indefinitely...<BR/><BR/>So we are having a recession - and debt availability is reverting back to historical norms. Like every other recession of the past 6000 years, it will be economically painful.<BR/><BR/>But the sky is not falling. The horseman of the apocalypse are no where to be found.<BR/><BR/>The big difference this time is that many (most?) people lived way beyond their means during the debt binge. So there is the very normal (and healthy) pullback in the economy, plus a psychological impact when debt addicts can no longer get their fix.<BR/><BR/>Withdrawal symptoms are painful -- but it is ridiculous to liken them to an economic depression.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-28516323723157030082008-12-08T15:21:00.000+00:002008-12-08T15:21:00.000+00:00It seems safe to say that the market is long lunch...It seems safe to say that the market is long lunches, short blog reading.<BR/><BR/>I have indeed done polls in the past (the banking dead pool poll over the summer was particularly prescient)....when the fancy strikes me, I'll do another...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51266408120865677792008-12-08T15:14:00.000+00:002008-12-08T15:14:00.000+00:00I second the poll idea, though in general. Importa...I second the poll idea, though in general. Important econ data polls, CB decision day polls, etc. Would be nice to see just how accurate your reader consensus is. I'm sure you know there are several free, good poll/survey services out there so this would take very little effort on your part (compared to your daily post), though of course you may not like the idea. I would further suggest that the poll take the space of the "worst dow days", even if intermittently so.<BR/> Thanks for the blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11803195667645686762008-12-08T14:14:00.000+00:002008-12-08T14:14:00.000+00:00i cant help but notice the market for comments is ...i cant help but notice the market for comments is quite illiquid as well today.. maybe there's a correlation ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17312238305415405012008-12-08T13:58:00.000+00:002008-12-08T13:58:00.000+00:00with your permission, MM, how about a little straw...with your permission, MM, how about a little straw poll? who says this price action is profit-taking and who thinks - as some would argue - it is due to st obama's anticipated largesse..?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com