tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6992995813865132148..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: You can never go home....Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59282302657027708982008-03-26T09:33:00.000+00:002008-03-26T09:33:00.000+00:00I'll start trading whenever I have a good idea and...I'll start trading whenever I have a good idea and the conviction to back it. Right now I feel like I am on an intellectual slip road, trying to get back up to speed before merging in with market traffic.<BR/><BR/>Sadly a number of the options in the old P/L have been lost with the change in login, and right now I just don't have the time or energy to re-create them....Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80335589285729867892008-03-26T09:19:00.000+00:002008-03-26T09:19:00.000+00:00When are you going to start trading for your new b...When are you going to start trading for your new boss? I sincerely miss your day by day P/L... Always a pleasure reading your posts, anyway!<BR/><BR/>ATAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39579255997627035852008-03-26T08:39:00.000+00:002008-03-26T08:39:00.000+00:00india has sold so much rice to mexico that they do...india has sold so much rice to mexico that they dont know what to do with all that silver. they even consume it in the form of a leaf of silver put on a dish thats baked in the owen. true wealth comes in the form of, but is not limited to, freedom, love, happiness, health, children, a good nights sleep and such. it is true that all the best things in life are for free.<BR/><BR/>and tally man, "it never rains in the pub"...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30448216221870370802008-03-26T04:42:00.000+00:002008-03-26T04:42:00.000+00:00The historical S/G ratio is not particularly relev...The historical S/G ratio is not particularly relevant, or constant for that matter. <BR/><BR/>16:1 is a pretty typical 18th-century ratio, and also pretty close to the relative abundance in the Earth's crust. So probably about right for a monetary system on a bimetallic standard. But that bimetallic standard only existed because China and India were on silver, IMHO, and in the late 19th century it collapsed for what were more or less natural causes. OTOH, in classical times the S/G ratio was even lower, down to 5:1 I think.<BR/><BR/>It may be a technical indicator - anything may be a technical indicator - but I don't think it means much today. By weight, here is less aboveground monetary silver than monetary gold today, which makes the price tend to fluctuate wildly based on demand from goldbugs who are bothered by the idea that their entire end-times hoard is in just one element.<BR/><BR/>Because of this small stockpile, a little bit of monetary demand does crazy things to the silver price. On the other hand, there's a reason the stockpile is small, which is that the return of silver as a monetary metal is very unlikely. Whatever you think the chance of a new gold standard is, divide by 100 for silver. For example, the world no longer needs a "small-change" metal - even on a 100%-reserve standard, flakes of gold in Lucite would do just fine.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, silver is also an important industrial metal, and the present price is probably not too far out of whack for industrial purposes. For a long time the old monetary stockpiles were still shrinking. It takes a long time to turn a money supply into turquoise jewelry. Now the world's silver pile is probably growing again, but slowly. So this gives you a bit of a put option, perhaps - as opposed to gold, where monetary demand is pretty much the only game in town.Mencius Moldbughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16472157249344139282noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59890759906654146332008-03-26T04:19:00.000+00:002008-03-26T04:19:00.000+00:00Charles Longfellow,Recently, (within the last coup...Charles Longfellow,<BR/><BR/>Recently, (within the last couple of weeks), I was reading something on the current runup in precious metals (gold and silver, in particular), and mention was made of a "historic" ratio, of 16:1, if I recall correctly. The author's thesis was that, of the two, silver represented a better current value, as its being lagging gold.<BR/><BR/>JanAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37044888821945783592008-03-26T00:57:00.000+00:002008-03-26T00:57:00.000+00:00Also, when thinking gold, does the gold/silver rat...Also, when thinking gold, does the gold/silver ratio provide clues to short term buy/sell signals? I have noticed a casual relationship, but probably only safe when riding the longer term trend, (clearly UP).<BR/>My blog has a new link to Bullionvault.<BR/>CFCharles Longfellowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14306791899792230047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5394851724449728032008-03-25T23:57:00.000+00:002008-03-25T23:57:00.000+00:00MM,Thanks for the snippet.Considering that you're ...MM,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the snippet.<BR/><BR/>Considering that you're likely to be correct in saying that the effects of present Fed policies will be inflationary in scope, then gold as a macro trend is just beginning its ascent, isn't it?<BR/><BR/>-GAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5019852946096510832008-03-25T20:16:00.000+00:002008-03-25T20:16:00.000+00:00Thanks Rudiger. I think the Euro area is a really...Thanks Rudiger. I think the Euro area is a really fascinating study, or should be, to academic economists. Observe the wildly different fortunes in the housing markets of, say, Ireland and Germany, despite the two countries having identical monetary policy over the past few years. <BR/><BR/>One wonders if the different Eurozone economies are not on irrevocably divergent paths, caused at least in part by the one-size-fits-all monetary policy of the ECB.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29650789243988370272008-03-25T13:23:00.000+00:002008-03-25T13:23:00.000+00:00MM,in case you or somebody is interested in more g...MM,<BR/>in case you or somebody is interested in more general evidence about what sustained low interest rates have done to house prices, I have a nice chart (figure 8) in the OECD working paper linked below. <BR/><BR/>http://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaaa/597-en.html<BR/><BR/>(Sorry for the self-promotion, but the site didn't allow me to simply paste in the chart).<BR/><BR/>RAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com