tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6989646313872123932..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Help WantedMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger62125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18724676293862906822022-09-01T12:56:24.536+01:002022-09-01T12:56:24.536+01:00The author has outdone himself this time. It's...The author has outdone himself this time. It's under no circumstances sufficient; the web site can be utmost superb. 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It is a great website and nice share. I want to thank you. Good job! You guys do a great blog, and have some great contents. Keep up the good work.<a href="https://beo777.com/" rel="nofollow">เว็บตรงสล็อต</a>wooohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12116138895150899165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54009453399241246532022-04-11T16:32:27.248+01:002022-04-11T16:32:27.248+01:00Hello, this weekend is good for me, since this tim...Hello, this weekend is good for me, since this time i am reading this enormous informative article here at my home.<a href="https://ipro147.com/%E0%B8%AA%E0%B8%A5%E0%B9%87%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%95-true-wallet-%E0%B8%AA%E0%B8%A5%E0%B9%87%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%95%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%AD%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%84%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%8C/" rel="nofollow">สล็อตทรูวอเลท</a>wiiihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03539015575104303885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70070089692734620022022-04-11T16:18:30.304+01:002022-04-11T16:18:30.304+01:00Nice post. I was checking constantly this blog and...Nice post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed! Extremely helpful information specially the last part I care for such info a lot. I was seeking this particular information for a very long time. Thank you and good luck.<a href="https://ipro799.com/%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%84%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%B2-true-wallet-%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%95%E0%B8%B4%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B9/" rel="nofollow">บา คา ร่า วอ เลท</a>wiiihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03539015575104303885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1057741803438920262018-04-24T17:20:49.993+01:002018-04-24T17:20:49.993+01:00Jamie Dimon last week: "We will eventually h...Jamie Dimon last week: "We will eventually have another recession. I do not know what will cause it. I don't think it's going to happen this year and maybe not early next year. There are too many signs of growth. The rest of the world is growing faster. The tax reform is helping. Regulatory reform is helping. Wages are going up. More people are coming back into the workforce. Housing is in short supply. Household formation is going up. Everything you look at is pretty good."Gushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05716889492671161586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42035834545287686402018-04-23T23:12:03.338+01:002018-04-23T23:12:03.338+01:00Some humor from the Sohn Conference: Lin Ran, who...Some humor from the Sohn Conference: Lin Ran, who runs Half Sky Capital, pitched GrubHub Inc. She said GrubHub averages $30 per order and earns 15 percent of each order, as spending growth at restaurants is outpacing spending at grocery stores.<br /><br />"I like to call this chart 'Millennials can't cook," Ran said, to laughter.<br /><br />Millennials, a term for those born between 1981 and 1996, are expected to become the largest generation in the United States in 2019, according to estimates from Pew Research.<br /><br />https://www.compuserve.com/news/story/0002/20180423/KBN1HU2GI_2Gushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05716889492671161586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77033878065727824222018-04-23T20:31:18.019+01:002018-04-23T20:31:18.019+01:00Ah okay, gotcha. Missed that nuance. Ah okay, gotcha. Missed that nuance. Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75229134032059891362018-04-23T19:34:16.260+01:002018-04-23T19:34:16.260+01:00Nope, long dollar and XOP. It's a play on US s...Nope, long dollar and XOP. It's a play on US shale. Even as oil price goes down US shale can still go strong, especially if OPEC continues to curtail its production. Not long oil, actually think WTI is at the top of the range here $58 - 68.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51124434321225779532018-04-23T19:23:08.032+01:002018-04-23T19:23:08.032+01:00@IPA, so you're long both the dollar and oil b...@IPA, so you're long both the dollar and oil basically? What is your timing for each of these. They kind of seem to go against each other.Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69925499728064718342018-04-23T19:02:45.092+01:002018-04-23T19:02:45.092+01:00Gundlach is pitching XOP at Sohn. Am I even allowe...Gundlach is pitching XOP at Sohn. Am I even allowed to mention his name here? LOL<br />Anyway, he said it would outperform SPX going into a recession. I agree with him on XOP (my trade of the year), but I would not want to own any stocks going into a recession. If I smell one I am out.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90952076878209217982018-04-23T18:34:02.655+01:002018-04-23T18:34:02.655+01:00Dollar breaking out, 10 yr rate bounces off 3% mar...Dollar breaking out, 10 yr rate bounces off 3% mark.... I bought some January puts on Oil right now. I may be a bit early here, and definitely not married to the position, but I feel like it's the right time to do this. Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16978666008414365192018-04-23T14:50:37.648+01:002018-04-23T14:50:37.648+01:00Dollar shortage anyone?Dollar shortage anyone?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33165907635373699152018-04-23T14:49:24.047+01:002018-04-23T14:49:24.047+01:00India 5 OIS swap spikes 15 bps, a 3 standard devia...India 5 OIS swap spikes 15 bps, a 3 standard deviations move ...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53214712313072986872018-04-23T14:27:29.857+01:002018-04-23T14:27:29.857+01:00Dollar broke out of trendline this morning. I'...Dollar broke out of trendline this morning. I'll be watching this closely. Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57348357703108415472018-04-23T03:45:54.515+01:002018-04-23T03:45:54.515+01:00@zh jin, EWH and FHK.@zh jin, EWH and FHK.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26177443118616668772018-04-22T17:32:33.614+01:002018-04-22T17:32:33.614+01:00Good discussion on China and current markets.
I h...Good discussion on China and current markets.<br /><br />I have a question: if I want to short HK market in the US, what are the available instruments for a retail trader? Thank you all.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11537631322704024673noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2553298309515087322018-04-22T11:44:49.750+01:002018-04-22T11:44:49.750+01:00Urgent Money Canada - A Canadian finance company l...Urgent Money Canada - A Canadian finance company lending to people typically with bad credit. No credit checks ever with any of our online customers. <a href="https://urgentmoney.ca/request-installment-loan/" rel="nofollow"><b>Installment loans</b></a> we offer are no longer than 3 months. Funds are deposited directly to their bank account within hours of a same day approval.Urgent Money Canadahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12403588011513520318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47483453873738653802018-04-21T07:37:17.497+01:002018-04-21T07:37:17.497+01:00@LB, I am of an opinion that AAPL has to hold 50 w...@LB, I am of an opinion that AAPL has to hold 50 week ma (coinciding with 200 day ma, essentially right here) or it will plunge to 100 wma which is @ 140. That would be a gut check for the market. It ain't looking good because current weekly AAPL chart resembles mid-summer of 2015 - five months of sideways trading range which culminated in a cratering move from Jul thru Aug. What was the AAPL worry back then? You guessed it - disappointing iPhone sales.<br /><br />More importantly, players are worried about chip suppliers and what AAPL weakness may do to their sales. I think one needs to read a story below to understand how complicated the things are getting and how important it is to know where in the cycle the chips are right now. I look at NVDA chart today (virtually unch on a bloodbath day in chips) and I agree that this may be a temporary blip. But it could still hurt the market in the meantime. SOX took a dive back in 2015 on AAPL weakness. While in hindsight it was all a big opportunity to buy, it surely didn't feel like one at that moment, I bet.<br /><br />https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-clouds-asml-earnings-forecast-1523648317IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43551558893476633372018-04-21T07:00:19.337+01:002018-04-21T07:00:19.337+01:00"When Federal Reserve officials gathered last..."When Federal Reserve officials gathered last month for Jerome Powell’s first meeting as central bank chairman, not a single official among 15 saw a downside risk to inflation."<br /><br />from WSJ 4/15/18Gushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05716889492671161586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3555149160475637302018-04-20T22:43:19.581+01:002018-04-20T22:43:19.581+01:00"Not a lot of fear out there right now, still..."Not a lot of fear out there right now, still a lot of dip-buying bargain-hunting sentiment."<br /><br /><br />Note the corporate buyback bid is back. As you mentioned earlier, the run into tech earnings week is almost the exact same scenario as we had late January. I really think the buybacks are playing a big role here in sedating the markets.<br /><br />-Treasury yields rising towards 2.95% on the 10 year<br />-Low volume low volatility rise (at least before the recent drop right now, which may be frontrunning based on what happened last january) <br />-Lots of selling the news on ER's<br />-Bonds, equities, and gold all performing poorly at the same time during dips<br />-Yield sensitive assets doing poorly based on rising rates<br /><br />Not saying it'll be quite the same, but it does feel at least a little bit like deja vu from Late January right now.<br /><br />On a side note, continuing onto my theme from previous comments, China once again can't maintain a steady gain even with the government doing some intervention right now. SHCOMP, HSI, and other Chinese indexes were extremely tightly correlated to US and international markets, but the last 1-2 weeks, that correlation has diverged greatly, dropping even when US markets were rebounding. SHCOMP is down 17% from its January high after dropping another 1.47% last night... I don't think it's a major coincidence this started the same week that the HKD Peg started to get hit.Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48767204996140725682018-04-20T22:06:42.902+01:002018-04-20T22:06:42.902+01:00A surprisingly volatile op ex day. Rates higher, e...A surprisingly volatile op ex day. Rates higher, equities lower. We'll be hearing about the woes of Risk Parity Punters like Dalio again, no doubt. Good thing too, he was becoming annoying and has made gradually made Westport uninhabitable.<br /><br />Technicals update: Prior support at SPX 50 day moving average broke down on a daily and weekly closing basis. SPX 2687 now serves as resistance. New support: IPA's SPX 2670 is hanging on by its fingernails, then there is the intraday low 2660, the 20 day at 2645 and the 200 day at SPX 2605, which would fill all the gaps IPA mentioned. We are of the opinion that this market has an appointment with the 200 day and perhaps the lower Bollinger band before the middle of May.<br /><br />Not a lot of fear out there right now, still a lot of dip-buying bargain-hunting sentiment. As for next week, it's not clear - a couple of sideways trading days for equities before renewed weakness is our best guess. AAPL earnings report on May 1st continues to be an albatross for this market. Ultra large cap stocks can do that to an index.<br /><br />After three days of a neck-snapping steepener we expect the stealth flattener to resume before long. The summer doldrums will be here in a couple of months and that usually brings lower rates (except for 2013 Taper Tantrum). <br /><br />Generally concur with @Cbus thoughts on yields, oil and inflation/deflation. It does get confusing when the transition approaches between weaker/stronger dollar and inflation/deflation. Most of us agree, but it's all about the timing, innit.<br /><br />Obviously we had a decent day, scaled back positions and took profits.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47619611158047441852018-04-20T15:00:05.140+01:002018-04-20T15:00:05.140+01:00Quick technical thoughts...
Euro is hitting an a...Quick technical thoughts... <br /><br />Euro is hitting an aforementioned 122-pip broken channel extension as I type, going lower still, imho. Dollar is definitely waking up, guys. All DXY components are crumbling for their own individual reasons, but mostly econodata is missing expectations (CAD again today). I have made enough comments on the issue, going quiet about it. Full position is on.<br /><br />SPX buy zone comes in between 2670 (horizontal breakout backtest) and 2678 (4/16 gap fill). If that zone gives, there are more gaps below to fill: 2656, 2642, 2613, 2604. I expect 2670-78 area to hold.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26877332980862264642018-04-20T04:49:11.646+01:002018-04-20T04:49:11.646+01:00Hot take, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 1...Hot take, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 10 year yield never breaks 3%. <br /><br />Yes inflation is at least somewhat real, but it's also somewhat overblown and narrative driven as well. CPI hasn't been that bad if we're being honest with ourselves, and if you look worldwide, CPI has been disappointing if anything. Inflation right now is predominantly oil prices, which are obviously running higher, but I still don't think will stay at their current levels. OPEC oil cuts will come off in the latter half of the year, and there is zero reason why we won't see an abrupt uptick in supply once again which prevents oil prices from ever becoming what we saw around 2007-2008. <br /><br />Beyond that, the worldwide industrial economy is slowing. That is a fact based on worldwide data. That will also contribute to the dampening of oil prices. Especially if China continues to slow down, there will be a major drop in demand for oil. So if oil slows down and the worldwide economy slows down, I tend to believe we will whipsaw from a narrative of inflation to a narrative of deflation really quick this time around. If the dollar rises at any point, that will likely coincide or be the cause of the whipsaw. As most here know, a rising dollar means cheaper oil prices, lower bond yields, worse performing emerging markets, worse junk bonds, etc etc. That = deflationary. <br /><br />There are a lot of people who are starting to doubt some of the inflationist ideals, or at the very minimum, they are more of a stagflationist mindset (which is probably closer to the reality in a late-cycle economy before transitioning to deflation). I think this bid for safety and a realization of the stage we're at in given the current the credit cycle will keep long dated treasuries low, while the shorter end of the curve will be cornered into rising due to fundamental factors. <br /><br />I think the markets already showed their hands when the yields approached 3%. We clearly saw they didn't like this, and once that occurred, the flight to safety quickly "sloshed" yields from one side to the other. I think any time we start to get close to 3% we will simply see a repeat of what happened where rising yields destabilize the markets, forcing a transition into long-dated treasuries in a bid to safety. This will effectively keep the longer term treasuries below 3%, while the shorter duration will rise from other factors. <br /><br />I think the inflation narrative is right on a long-term basis. But I also think people are getting their timing off here. Inflation definitely has the long term setup to be problematic, but I think in the 1-2 year term, there are much more deflationary factors at play that will come into effect before we start to see inflation truly become a big issue.<br /><br />With that said, i'm shooting from my hip here to a degree, and i'm definitely not a source of expertise on any of this. Cbus20122https://www.blogger.com/profile/05555850300593186460noreply@blogger.com