tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post685186703871501233..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Another Cunning PlanMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61748947301846488912011-07-21T09:00:23.512+01:002011-07-21T09:00:23.512+01:00Re chf. The soothsayer (and yes you guessed right)...Re chf. The soothsayer (and yes you guessed right) was in eur/chf which is the core of the argument and its really chf crosses we are playing at. eg Chf/nok or chf/sek.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76931344397587705162011-07-21T07:46:28.009+01:002011-07-21T07:46:28.009+01:00Soothsayer signal or not USD/CHF is too highly cor...Soothsayer signal or not USD/CHF is too highly correlated with EUR/USD. Yes, 3-month rolling correlations have dropped to -0.19 but yearly correlations are -0.84. When EUR/USD goes up, USD/CHF goes down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81009942075001491862011-07-21T06:40:45.138+01:002011-07-21T06:40:45.138+01:00Simply no way the us equities markets break out on...Simply no way the us equities markets break out on a new bull run. The second we break above the 2011 highs, a barrage of rationality will hit the street proclaiming the market to be overvalued - which it will be. The myth of 'climbing the wall of worry' only works when fed is providing free money.<br /><br />Bottom line, the market has not risen since 2007 without QE.chanceehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02757578466531765652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7178781544813079232011-07-21T00:50:45.294+01:002011-07-21T00:50:45.294+01:00"Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Soothsa..."Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Soothsayer signal?"<br /><br />I am guessing one of the DeMark indicators (which use to be free on Bloomberg, but are now a several thousand dollar a year addon).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38781764204011397542011-07-20T23:12:16.494+01:002011-07-20T23:12:16.494+01:00Part of me really hopes that this theory of yours ...Part of me really hopes that this theory of yours is only partly correct. Give the banks the money and let Greece default whilst using the efsf to be bid (for your size, shag) in Italian and Spanish bonds, let china bot soak the eur offers(for promises of all our children) and hey presto. Everyones a winner baby, that's the truth...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53004785909133106302011-07-20T22:32:13.215+01:002011-07-20T22:32:13.215+01:00Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Soothsayer si...Pardon my ignorance, but what is the Soothsayer signal?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69913282567225888162011-07-20T20:41:50.240+01:002011-07-20T20:41:50.240+01:00The fudge recipe might not be quite right yet, but...The fudge recipe might not be quite right yet, but another case of Ch. Eurobolleaux is being chilled. Mangler might yet prove to be a spoiler for the optimists, until someone explains DB's book to her.<br /><br />Haircuts, hmm... mullet, short back and sides, or the Marine buzzcut..?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73833352259095331722011-07-20T17:04:05.548+01:002011-07-20T17:04:05.548+01:00So they going to leg it through e/c,otherwise you ...So they going to leg it through e/c,otherwise you can't have your cake and eat it too.Ambonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66336629312698565232011-07-20T16:22:39.231+01:002011-07-20T16:22:39.231+01:00There's still time for one more big panic, TMM...There's still time for one more big panic, TMM, until the final tray of fudge comes out of the oven. The ECB has a habit of being Cunning Stunts.<br /><br />How about they come out with something half-ass tomorrow, there's a big dump of risk assets and then they do the bizness over the weekend and we wake up to a Magic Melt-Up on Momo Monday?<br /><br />Still liking Japan a lot, it's safely out of the way of whatever Euro mud may get thrown around, and also like selected US equities. Agree that some of the safety havens (CHF, JPY, silver, USTs) are probably going to get torched before July is over.<br /><br />A 50 bps move on the long bond and I'll be filling my boots again. Low rates are here to stay.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59298546961997604342011-07-20T15:13:39.456+01:002011-07-20T15:13:39.456+01:00Well, money multipliers do not work. Actually they...Well, money multipliers do not work. Actually they do not exist. Loans create deposits and not the other way round. Forget this textbook nonsense. What banks finance is client settlements. Long-term financing means management of liquidity and interest rate risks.Игры рынкаhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12001273098690387194noreply@blogger.com