tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6839812337792979843..comments2024-03-19T03:05:57.184+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Cuckoo For Cocoa/Commodity Catch Up/Stock Market Topping Process/China From Ground LevelMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64187684046910199922022-10-29T07:35:55.558+01:002022-10-29T07:35:55.558+01:00Very Interested One, precise technique and thanks ...Very Interested One, precise technique and thanks for sharing this form of precise blog and take a look at this interesting <a href="https://www.salespenny.com/marketing-stories/ford-ads/" rel="nofollow">sales and marketing</a> Trends.Tinker Journahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06886376208791493266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8428803330639365782022-02-25T12:19:19.404+00:002022-02-25T12:19:19.404+00:00Mechanicrew offers 2- wheeler repair services in B...Mechanicrew offers 2- wheeler repair services in Bangalore. 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Thank you for sharing. Finding tru...Very nice blog. Thank you for sharing. Finding trustworthy packers and movers in Chandigarh is not an easy task. It can be stressful. Here we also provide household relocation, warehouse services and packers and movers in Chandigarh at a very reasonable price. <br /><br /><br /><a href="http://balajipackersmover.com/" rel="nofollow">Packers and Movers in Mohali </a><br /><a href="http://balajipackersmover.com/" rel="nofollow">Packers and Movers in Panchkula</a><br /><a href="http://balajipackersmover.com/" rel="nofollow">Packers and Movers in Chandigarh </a><br /><a href="http://balajipackersmover.com/" rel="nofollow">Packers and Movers in Zirakpur</a><br /><a href="http://balajipackersmover.com/" rel="nofollow">Packers and Movers in Derabassi</a><br /><a href="http://balajipackersmover.com/" rel="nofollow">Packers and Movers in Jaipur</a>Manjot kaurhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15214775423953680592noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55106579268646996782017-08-24T14:05:49.275+01:002017-08-24T14:05:49.275+01:00Nice post Detriot Red, thanks for the comments. Co...Nice post Detriot Red, thanks for the comments. Cocoa does look interesting. I have actually been interested in the chocolate makers (hershey and lindt). Seems like if anyone can ever crack the Chinese taste for chocolate it could be great business, but alas China apparently doesnt like chocolate (though with startbucks ALL-IN with coffee, perhaps its just time). But back on cocoa I do like the chart set up but would need a buy signal still to get in<br /><br />@IPA, I am still in ULTA, will play earnings tonight. They will probably beat. But I am in it for the long term. The multiple is still too high. Lets see. Oil is a train wreck still but some like RRC and GPOR look to be bottoming, IMO. I will hold what I have for now. Craptastic<br /><br />Regarding an equity correction, well we are setting up nicely. Almost too nicely. HYG at 50 day. Russell and Transports below 200 day. Dax at 200 day. Bund at 200 day. Notes/TBond near range lows. S&P near short term support. If we get the next impulse lower and the bottom falls out, look out below. <br /><br />But where is the weakness really coming from? EU bc the EURO is too high (but PMI's still great). Not in EEM. Not in China (ie hard commodities). In the US, lagging sectors are oil and retail, nothing really new here. And unless NFP / claims start surprising I think market doesnt care. But what is more interesting to me is if this sell off starts taking industrials (looks very toppy and is damn expensive, but still geared towards China) and financials down with it. Then we have a correction. <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59971584138161165442017-08-22T17:22:50.242+01:002017-08-22T17:22:50.242+01:00More or less in agreement with IPA and Detroit Red...More or less in agreement with IPA and Detroit Red here - that for the time being we are in the early stages of a correction in risky assets, based on the charts of main interest at present: IWM, VIX and (derivative) SVXY. As long as we continue to see higher lows in vol and lower highs in the small caps, we are going to go in and out on the short side of the market. Spoos and FANG etc., are a sideshow for us, as our trade is focused on the small cap index. Days like today warn everyone to be cautious. We have been out on the sidelines, pondering a re-entry today or tomorrow once VIX has been crushed a bit lower.<br /><br />We are neutral to slightly bearish on fixed income for now, just going to sit and watch that market while J-Hole occurs and the tea leaves are read. Charts have turned more constructive but can still be viewed either way, and for now our most important data point was the bearish "abandoned baby" candle in TLT that we saw back in July. That was a top, and we haven't seen anything definitive happen since that time in terms of momentum or sentiment. The usual response to the debt ceiling debates is as follows: complacency (yield seeking), then a flight to safety (bid in the belly of curve to long end of USTs) as the deadline approaches, followed by a return to risk (high yield and short-term) once the deadlock is resolved.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81653678746950358852017-08-22T15:11:31.824+01:002017-08-22T15:11:31.824+01:00from above article...
“We don’t have any views on...from above article...<br /><br />“We don’t have any views on whether the market is priced high or low, whether bonds and stocks are expensive or cheap,”<br /><br /> he said in an interview after presenting second-quarter returns in Oslo on Tuesday. The decision to add stocks “was made at a strategic level, on a long-term expected excess return that we’re willing to take risk to achieve. And parliament has said that they wish to spend some time to phase in that increase.”Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11693354139038135784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91742682497667032402017-08-22T15:05:40.453+01:002017-08-22T15:05:40.453+01:00Oh my...
Norway’s $970 billion wealth fund has bee...Oh my...<br />Norway’s $970 billion wealth fund has been ordered to raise its stock holdings to 70 percent from 60 percent in an effort to boost returns and safeguard the country’s oil riches for future generations. <br /><br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-22/world-s-biggest-wealth-fund-gains-26-billion-on-stock-rallyJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11693354139038135784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91891374280778561632017-08-22T04:44:39.060+01:002017-08-22T04:44:39.060+01:00I like your points on commodities--today a former ...I like your points on commodities--today a former colleague linked to a note written by a friend that noted how the world is still growing....and consuming stuff...stuff that is made of wood, steel, iron, zinc, etc. And supply in these sectors hasn't seen the innovation that oil has in the past few years. in fact it is getting harder and harder to find quality grades of copper in places where you don't need an army of mercenaries to guard your mine. This guy also highlighted that it is not only supply/grades that are deteriorating but also talent---the people that know how to get this stuff out of the ground are getting old and not being replaced by a generation that thinks mining isn't green enough. (and working for goldman is? --ed.) <br /><br />Re: job searching in this industry at large--I had an interesting conversation with a recruiter today. We discussed a position that was titled something like "fixed income strategist". We went over the basics of the position, and my experience. It all seemed to be a good fit until we talked about compensation. They are looking to pay what I was paid when I got my first job in the business, despite wanting someone that makes asset allocation and portfolio level decisions and recommendations!! <br /><br />I wished her the best of luck and went back to my spreadsheets and database. <br /><br />But my point is this--the business was one that supports advisors for HNW and small-mid-sized corporate clients. They charge whatever on AUM...1%, maybe more? They advisor is a sales guy, not an asset manager. But the firm "sells" that the advisor has access to the vast resources of this huge corporation, which is supposed to have the scale to hire and pay bright, experienced people to help make good decisions for advisors and clients. But for whatever reason, they've decided to outsource this to people with no experience managing assets. <br /><br />This is their strategy for fighting robo-advisors. Kinda reminds me of Blockbuster. EM Inflationistahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13376753485910252234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73561463161580536882017-08-21T23:49:33.320+01:002017-08-21T23:49:33.320+01:00@abee, I am out of ULTA short on this $10 plunge. ...@abee, I am out of ULTA short on this $10 plunge. This was a trade for the books. Almost stopped out in the very beginning and to get this reward - simply a gift!<br /><br />@Detroit Red, really hope your equity market prediction is correct. It would help to complete the SVXY trade I am in (selfish wish). While I am with you on the short-term correction, I disagree on the magnitude. Feels like ousting of alt-right from the WH is going to accelerate tax cuts proceedings and cushion the fall in equities for the duration of the sausage making. Trump knows that it's his last chance to regain any ground in polls. He wants to be liked, it's his nature. Tax cuts will give him much-needed love from all sides. It'll also give GOP the boost in possible votes in midterm election. Once the sausage is prepared, i.e. tax cuts are announced (leaked), we'll then have the deeper correction you are looking for, imho. Let's say sometime in the very beginning of 2018?? Why would equities sell off? Tax cuts won't be as deep as anticipated. Congress will get them done but will have to compromise on the rate, size, and everything else that comes with it, possibly a much reduced repatriation windfall, if any.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70768600927320159242017-08-21T19:14:02.550+01:002017-08-21T19:14:02.550+01:00Good to see you back Detroit Red, I like your outl...Good to see you back Detroit Red, I like your outlook and conviction. If life experience has taught me one thing... if you are good enough, the seat will find you. <br />Best wishes. Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.com