tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6569280083420046489..comments2024-03-29T09:24:42.731+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Although...Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50109662480554900942007-09-09T17:30:00.000+01:002007-09-09T17:30:00.000+01:00I do trade forwards. Whenever I do a currency tra...I do trade forwards. Whenever I do a currency trade, though, I usually give a spot reference and then roll it out to the forward date, which is how I trade in real life.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-90667803874630028172007-09-09T17:18:00.000+01:002007-09-09T17:18:00.000+01:00Why trade spot FX rather than forwards? Just curi...Why trade spot FX rather than forwards? Just curious.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67269217395064323462007-09-09T13:20:00.000+01:002007-09-09T13:20:00.000+01:00Totally agreed. It doesn't look pretty at all.Totally agreed. It doesn't look pretty at all.Bankerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03215896316185279351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6374759275625516492007-09-09T01:55:00.000+01:002007-09-09T01:55:00.000+01:00i agree with the dollar negative sentiment. i'm no...i agree with the dollar negative sentiment. i'm not sure that i'm euro positive, though. some of the big problems, particularly with banks, libor, cp, etc. have been european. i think i'd prefer swissy, gold, or even yen. maybe i'm wrong, but i see parallel issues with europe. it must be all of those prop traders in london.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-196027558440999822007-09-08T07:29:00.000+01:002007-09-08T07:29:00.000+01:00Anonymous # 1: I'd think that Indian markets coul...Anonymous # 1: I'd think that Indian markets <I>could</I> be in for a bit of a rough patch, given SENSEX valuation, though I'd imagine as a BRIC equity investors might give it a bit more of a chance than Mexico.<BR/><BR/>Anonymous #2: Interesting point, I hadn't seen that. And household employment <I>was</I> pretty weak in yesterday's report. Then again, it's been weak for a few months now. Certainly does nothing to dispel the foolhardiness of reporting this data in quasi-real time. Surely better to wait for a more complete sample, n'est-ce pas?<BR/><BR/>Anonymous # 3: In terms of the literal meeting outcome, you're probably looking at 2003. In terms of the guidance on future monetary policy, there was considerable uncertainty in May 2006; when the Fed suggested another rate hike was in the pipeline, markets took it rather badly...<BR/><BR/>Tmcgee: Absolutely. This data is bandied about as if it's the gospel, when it's more like measuring the distance to Proxima Centauri in kilometers: you can get a rough guide but it sure as shinola won't be exact.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23037622230003662832007-09-08T02:23:00.000+01:002007-09-08T02:23:00.000+01:00also given the sheer size of the labor force, it s...also given the sheer size of the labor force, it seems absurd to report the numbers in unites of 1,000. if they did so in % changes, i think this payrolls nonsense wouldn't exist.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81472274627172446892007-09-08T00:33:00.000+01:002007-09-08T00:33:00.000+01:00Has there been a Fed meeting in recent memory wher...Has there been a Fed meeting in recent memory where forecasting the outcome correctly in quantitative terms, this close to the meeting, has been this uncertain?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84644740755848208122007-09-07T21:31:00.000+01:002007-09-07T21:31:00.000+01:00"The labor force participation rate decreased to 6..."The labor force participation rate decreased to 65.8<BR/>percent in August, largely reflecting a decline in<BR/>participation among teens. The labor force participation<BR/>rate of teenagers declined by 1.5 percentage points to 39.7<BR/>percent. The household survey reference period fell<BR/>relatively late this August (covering the week from Sunday,<BR/>August 12 through Saturday, August 18) and, as a result, a<BR/>larger-than-usual number of teens had left the labor force<BR/>to return to school when surveyed. While the movement in<BR/>August may have been exaggerated by the timing of the survey<BR/>week, the labor force participation rate of teenagers had<BR/>been declining recently--from 43.4 percent in December 2006<BR/>to 41.2 percent in July 2007."<BR/><BR/><BR/>How has the late survey impacted numbers? Well they indicate it may exaggerate the decline in teen employment. <BR/><BR/>The unadjusted fall in teen workers in August is -910k the largest in a decade except 2000. <BR/><BR/>This translates to a seasonally adjusted fall of -275k the largest in a decade again apart from a blowout<BR/>-428K in 2001.<BR/><BR/>How about teen participation rates? Here the indicated potential error would lower the participation rate.<BR/><BR/>The unadjusted fall in teen participation July -August is -6.6% average for the decade. <BR/><BR/>But the adjusted fall is -1.5% the largest in a decade (double the next largest)apart from a blowout -2.5% in 2001.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18395004153292212692007-09-07T17:40:00.000+01:002007-09-07T17:40:00.000+01:00Dear MM, Manc Trader,If you are in agreement with ...Dear MM, Manc Trader,<BR/><BR/>If you are in agreement with Mexico, what about India, a succcessful EM so far but runs a considerable deficit (and has lot of youth in population too)<BR/><BR/>Its gonna sink ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9254901928724114732007-09-07T16:37:00.000+01:002007-09-07T16:37:00.000+01:00Agree with you on the mexico call MM.Agree with you on the mexico call MM.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91180798970014400092007-09-07T15:47:00.000+01:002007-09-07T15:47:00.000+01:00They do indeed still have it, and it added 120 k j...They do indeed still have it, and it added 120 k jobs, below the 6m trend. The whole things just illustrates the inherent difficulty of tracking US employment growth in quasi-real time, which begs the question of why they try...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4850663842661397002007-09-07T15:27:00.000+01:002007-09-07T15:27:00.000+01:00Does Fed Govt still use a birth/death statistical ...Does Fed Govt still use a birth/death statistical adjustment to employment numbers? Always seemed an oddity to "adjust" real world data by a hypothetical percentage of population that was "supposed to be" employed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com