tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6543369589516773119..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Big Trouble in Little China .. (and at least a cold in Europe)?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78943821811843148822017-05-25T13:29:53.055+01:002017-05-25T13:29:53.055+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11102030889585142428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3345327392050765812017-05-25T04:13:39.731+01:002017-05-25T04:13:39.731+01:00In addition to the auto parts trade, do you have a...In addition to the auto parts trade, do you have any thoughts on the used car market? Have been looking at Carmax and some of the lenders (mostly SC), but have not shorted yet.<br /><br />Thanks in advance.Harper Street Holdingshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09942538995528044893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74316025884874130582017-05-25T03:41:41.038+01:002017-05-25T03:41:41.038+01:00Why short FCX on iron ore trade, play Value or FMG...Why short FCX on iron ore trade, play Value or FMG. Go direct, IMO. I like them both, but lower, not with China slowing still not 100% priced in imo. <br /><br />Its probably a little early calling the end of the Canadian housing boom. Perhaps it could be but I doubt you will convince many Canadians their house prices might go down a lot. And given that prices are up like 30% YoY in places like Toronto, even if prices went down 10 -15%, does it matter? You have to really see what happens afterwards. Now is way too early, imo. Canadian banks, meh, they will only feel the 2nd round effects of this. You can shoot first, but I dont mind to wait and see. You can short domestic plays for a while if it materializes...<br /><br />IPA i'm short ULTA too. But right now its just a play on earnings. Good luck. While Im not optimistic they will miss (since they are doing pretty well now) if they do you gotta be in before. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37227738663945120972017-05-24T22:30:18.873+01:002017-05-24T22:30:18.873+01:00dfdsfiol, thank for the link. Being early was the ...dfdsfiol, thank for the link. Being early was the key. Letting Canadian banks retrace a bit before shorting them again. Also, it looks like BOC is talking up the CAD and trying to calm the market down. Sounds familiar? Ben did the same until there was no one left to listen. I am sure the snowball effect is what's in the back of their mind.<br /><br />MacroWatcher, I have a lot of respect for traders who were much earlier than me on this auto parts trade. It is a train wreck with no relief in sight. Not sure how these companies will operate in the environment where the incremental sales are gone, both commercial and residential fleets become disposable bunch of junk, and there may even be an increasing tax burden for those who want to keep multiple cars on their driveway, as the tax per vehicle will rise significantly when gov't becomes clever on how to generate more tax revenue per vehicle while the new auto SAAR craters. Tough times ahead for them, no doubt.<br /><br />On FCX. I made a lot of money on the stock last year. I let it all go into two weeks of post-election madness. I am not following it at all right now but wish you all the luck. Watch $12, huge support/resistance level. I am sure you already know this. If you are into iron ore look at CLF as well. Needs to find a bottom first. <br /><br />I am stopped out of NQ short and will reassess my view on the next breakdown (if one ever comes in this life). Don't like to short new highs, as there is nothing to hide the stop behind. HH, (in advance) STFU!IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33182155069176358172017-05-24T21:30:17.775+01:002017-05-24T21:30:17.775+01:00IPA, great call on auto parts retailers. I have no...IPA, great call on auto parts retailers. I have no positions on those , I have instead shorted part makers with very concentrated set of clients like AXL and MRE , on the rationale that they will suffer as auto makers cut production to deal with inventory build up and lower sales. Also on retail , still short XRT even though I did buy half on the recent move back to 44 at 42.5. Got fooled by the noise but confident it will go to 35 now. Yesterday there was a Demark sequential buy so we may have a opportunity to add to position soon. Also added FCX here, tracks iron ore very closely and historically buying iron ore after such a steep drop works pretty well, as the chinese manage to contain it, at least for now.<br />On Europe, confident that economic green shoots will quickly disappear and that it will follow US eco cycle as usual. So far things have been going the other way but fortunately played it by going long euribor and not short eur so I'm scraping a profit.MacroWatcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03008114897146746147noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39206255721343713272017-05-24T21:19:11.640+01:002017-05-24T21:19:11.640+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.MacroWatcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03008114897146746147noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43245411353025137762017-05-24T21:08:24.146+01:002017-05-24T21:08:24.146+01:00Im sure you guys read:
https://www.bloomberg.com/...Im sure you guys read:<br /><br />https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-24/toronto-bidding-wars-turn-to-homebuyers-remorse-as-market-slowsdfdsfiolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09424903490091670724noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42741652318459642312017-05-24T18:03:52.696+01:002017-05-24T18:03:52.696+01:00Nice bets in retail, IPA. DIY auto retailer short ...Nice bets in retail, IPA. DIY auto retailer short basket now -15% since inception. Covered a Canadian lender short at about -15% too.<br /><br />Shorted palladium on yesterday's bounce, leaving me long aluminum short palladium in metals. In oil, recently added a curve flattener, but small as entry is late-to-the-game. Still long through call spread and KO call too.<br /><br />In FX, exited TRYZAR Friday on concerns over the the constitutional court giving Mbete discretion to hold a secret no confidence vote. Zuma may be forced to step down to rpevent a split vote by the ANC. Or maybe Mbete hands off the decision to committee, giving Zuma more time. Too binary. Annoyingly put this on in high-3.70s when i-banks all went bullish. Mistake.<br /><br />Took off some of my EURUSD fly yesterday that mentioned here before. 5x payoff. I'm not especially bullish EURUSD here. Looks expensive on models. Also covered buxl two days ago. Unconvinced Draghi will give us more than a "balanced risks" statement in June.<br /><br />Large position short USDMYR working. Regulatory catalyst discussed here before. One of those trades you can do if you don't need 100s of millions of liquidity (but are big enough to have access to NDFs).<br /><br />NOK continues to test my patience. Worse, it kept me from going long CAD. I probably agree with bearish thesis on Canada, but thought too slow-moving a process to short CAD when OPEC was right ahead and the currency was quite cheap to oil/rates. Will be interesting to see if I get schooled in this NOK.<br /><br /><br />johnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11356400378252164259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51501928163164902012017-05-24T15:38:36.440+01:002017-05-24T15:38:36.440+01:0055 pip slap on the wrist on my CAD short. BOC is a...55 pip slap on the wrist on my CAD short. BOC is a bit optimistic here, I don't want to fight them. Using the weakness in Canadian banks this am to cover my leftover shorts in them. Stepping aside to let this confusion figure itself out while my attention is totally consumed by US retail train wreck. Win some, lose some.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60425444985040292192017-05-23T21:18:51.394+01:002017-05-23T21:18:51.394+01:00Auto parts retailers, that is.Auto parts retailers, that is.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73452012461450783432017-05-23T21:17:55.824+01:002017-05-23T21:17:55.824+01:00Pulled the trigger on ULTA short. 10 dollar risk v...Pulled the trigger on ULTA short. 10 dollar risk vs 70 dollar reward.<br />Look at DSW today, ouch! Not the same specialty but caters to the same consumer. <br /><br />Lovely charts on auto retailers today. Are the wheels completely falling off? (pun totally intended) Soon enough the driverless era talk will start to take a huge bite out of these companies and I don't know what they will do in those times. Must be really scary for the execs to have a vision on that scenario. Talking about reality check. Start closing them stores now :)<br /><br />Hey Harry, STFU!IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47199100403077180622017-05-23T20:03:28.954+01:002017-05-23T20:03:28.954+01:00ROFL! Keep shorting retards, the Bank of Japan wil...ROFL! Keep shorting retards, the Bank of Japan will happily buy your margin liquidations...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23641764574981442762017-05-23T15:04:03.695+01:002017-05-23T15:04:03.695+01:00Lot more believable HH if you could keep your stor...Lot more believable HH if you could keep your storyline straight. Last time of asking your positions had banked and you were bored waiting for something to happen. Like most liars Harry you trip yourself up by assuming everybodyelse shares your lack of attention to detail. Mummy must be calling you by now. Surely diaper changing is due.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88047292006847528582017-05-23T14:34:10.043+01:002017-05-23T14:34:10.043+01:00Yes HH, we know, all money went from our accounts ...Yes HH, we know, all money went from our accounts to yours. Congrats! Based on your appearance equities should top today by noon US eastern time. Now, STFU!<br /><br />So WTI doing the dance way north of 50 may be an indication that quite a few wanted to buy the pullback but instead will be forced to chase. It is looking to go higher still and is only 15c below YH here as I type. I rolled into N last week and have a skin in the game, so talking my book. It's a 30c adjustment from M so my exit target is 52.30 and that is about where the trendline resistance (2/21 & 4/12 touches) comes in. OPEC meeting is a risk, I'd like to be out by then. Only 1/3 position left.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-543669106742741502017-05-23T12:36:11.883+01:002017-05-23T12:36:11.883+01:00Just wanted to stop by and thank you guys for shor...Just wanted to stop by and thank you guys for shorting spooz (and equivalents) thus helping to drive prices higher. Please continue to do so as we push through All Time Highs. Thanks guys!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86406852970785529752017-05-23T04:26:30.881+01:002017-05-23T04:26:30.881+01:00They've been selling 50 dsma on XLE and XOP si...They've been selling 50 dsma on XLE and XOP since the end of Jan. One day (pretty soon) that trade will stop working and both will blow through and keep on going. I am holding onto both and will add more on that possible breakout. Inverted head and shoulders here as well.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89154273809999790562017-05-23T00:34:10.038+01:002017-05-23T00:34:10.038+01:00Agreed on wmt ipa. But do momo quants care? So ma...Agreed on wmt ipa. But do momo quants care? So many stocks below thier 20 moving average. Just waiting for a reason...<br /><br />Bitcoin land is going insane. Smaller crypto currencies doubling in a week. <br /><br />Em tech very strong. Sold my last part of tencent. Good comapny. Crowded trade. <br /><br />Xle vs oil here is giving me a pause. <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58313575286296542932017-05-22T23:03:48.645+01:002017-05-22T23:03:48.645+01:00Could there be a possible flaw in the thinking tha...Could there be a possible flaw in the thinking that WMT is going to benefit from specialty retailers and other big boxes shutting down their stores? I have to imagine the demand is not there vs the demand shifts to WMT. I read quite a few analysts pounding the table on WMT and I have to disagree. Many of these closing stores cater to a very different consumer. I don't see how WMT gains a lot of their biz, and if anything, the biz is simply shifted online or is not there any more. Clothing/shoes, electronics, gaming - they are all shifting online. Not a single doubt in my mind that WMT does not come up as the top consumer choice for shopping those items online. Nor can they compete on the item they simply don't carry in stock. WMT carries cheap crap that breaks a lot - a reputation they have garnered over many years and not one to be changed quickly enough to capitalize on this retail debacle. I think that resistance @ $80 holds and price goes down to test $60. Using puts to play this trade.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49133508313565482022017-05-22T19:38:38.188+01:002017-05-22T19:38:38.188+01:00Ah bless those duvet days.
How about that silver...Ah bless those duvet days. <br /><br />How about that silver/gold spread trade today? <br />Trump it seems is not as unloved abroad as he is at h... Nah he is,but when you're a messenger, it is polite to listen. <br />Oil reached it objective earlier today. Skrhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15637819137472818789noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27007611587161005682017-05-22T19:23:41.846+01:002017-05-22T19:23:41.846+01:00Some things just don't add up today. Not tryin...Some things just don't add up today. Not trying to talk my book but... Gold is up along with stocks, oil svc stocks are down while crude is up, all defense stocks hit a wall at the open, 10-yr is just meh while equities are ripping and commodity currencies are not ripping. I am adding to my CAD short here. I am short NQ here. I am not crazy about this rally, I think it runs out of steam this pm or tomorrow in am.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61606708989415991552017-05-20T17:39:05.869+01:002017-05-20T17:39:05.869+01:00I dunno abee, teen apparel does not strike me as a...I dunno abee, teen apparel does not strike me as a viable option going forward. Things in retail are unfolding fast now. Pretty sure someone can copy Aerie's model, unleash a Snapchat/Instagram advertising campaign and become a formidable competitor catching them by surprise. Once that happens, AEO is a single digit stock with very little left to spare. I look at bankruptcies in that space and it makes me cringe. Why am I going to invest in a stock about to go into single digits and no support on the chart as of yet? Risky proposition in the environment you correctly pointed out - very tough. It would completely contradict my XRT short, even if I was to pair it, which I can't see myself doing after AEO's report this week. Teens are a finicky bunch to sell to. My daughter said she does not like Aerie, but she has always been a VS girl.<br /><br />More importantly, I think the carnage in shoe biz is a telling sign. I look at Payless bankruptcy, DSW, FINL and FL stocks and they are telling me that ladies are buying a whole lot less shoes at brick-and-mortar and men are not excited about sneakers for some reason. I say NKE 49/50 support breaks and sends shock waves through the market and engulfs retail for sure. Scary times ahead. XRT target 35.<br /><br />One stock I think could be a real loser is ULTA. I am watching their chart like a hawk. Yes, playing with fire, going against a cult. But if ladies can buy shoes online they can certainly buy their cosmetics and body lotions there as well. The nut case analysts are going crazy over the stock which is in the thick of a vulnerable retail market and a company that expanded rapidly and has a huge exposure to slowing foot traffic at shopping centers. What could go wrong? IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87507532323292960202017-05-20T04:43:11.305+01:002017-05-20T04:43:11.305+01:00Re rain, johno and oil. A lot is in the price. U.S...Re rain, johno and oil. A lot is in the price. U.S. Energy equity can't find a bottom. Hard to be bullish until they do. I'm holding here but starting to get worried. <br /><br />If risk markets sell off I'm out. If oil is weak bc demand isn't what it's supposed to be, and we have to wait for market to factor that in, could be a lot lower fast. I'm not there yet but thinking ahead. Estimated demand is near highs and I don't think too many ppl have any downside factored in. Just a thought. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53109458127663258392017-05-20T04:32:02.592+01:002017-05-20T04:32:02.592+01:00Brl is capped in my view, unless you get broad dol...Brl is capped in my view, unless you get broad dollar strength. Even if temer leaves. But for sure it could go more before we stop. Hard to say if all that is in the price just yet. Itau did sell off 20% for some lucky dip buyers. Will have to watch CDS spreads and interest rate expectations. <br /><br />So s&p filled the French election gap. Back to la la land. Bitcoin near $2000 now. My guess is that googl and Amzn need to hit $1000 before this is over. But Iwm is the tell. <br /><br />On China, so far it's only been correct to play China cycle via commodities. Everything else is more complicated. China is slowing not blowing up. Big difference. Global markets only panic when they think China is blowing up. Otherwise it's a process. We are still enjoying the stimulus of last year imo. But I'll be watching em leaders like kospi. <br /><br />Though as I said before its so much about tech these days. Em is a tech driven index now along with US. <br /><br />IPA I didn't buy Aeo but damn interested now. Pretty good mgmt team and good returns on capital. They are not losing to competitior imo. Just tough retail environment. Might pair it up. <br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30533373659175345902017-05-20T00:26:59.606+01:002017-05-20T00:26:59.606+01:00Seems like you're looking for a reason to just...Seems like you're looking for a reason to justify a China blow up theory (the bodies of thousands of US and European traders over the last 30 years there - "uh yeah, China's a bubble") but you've not even bothered to look at HSI or HSCEI? <br /><br />I'm going to posit the theory that you read this at ZH:<br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-04/someone-blowing-rbc-warns-china-induced-unwinds-are-escalating<br /><br />and you liked what you saw, and you're looking for reasons post-hoc?<br /><br />* I like to recall having dinner in Tokyo with a certain Head of Department from LEH in Aug 2008: "It's unbelievable that ICBC has a larger market cap than Citi. It's definitely a bubble". For those with bad memories or too young, a couple of months LEH blows and my dinner date is getting a package, and soon after that C gets bailed out and shareholders have blue chip toilet paper. SRXhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08893693527065807228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13463661568323044912017-05-19T22:01:38.223+01:002017-05-19T22:01:38.223+01:00Leftback, agree with your assessment of US equitie...Leftback, agree with your assessment of US equities here. It was a nice bounce for those who missed the wake up call with a chance to unload into opex. I have GTC order on NQ short @ 5688 with a stop just above the high - 40 point risk with 240, 300, and 370 point reward. Hopping to get filled sometime on Monday after everyone cheers no bad news over the weekend and then gets surprised with a mid-day selloff into the strength.IPAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14823892667440934141noreply@blogger.com