tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6533186069149285348..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Page 23 and the Horoscopes.Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50962872765711303492012-03-06T07:49:23.383+00:002012-03-06T07:49:23.383+00:00Sorry,
Forgot to make the handle blue.Sorry, <br /><br />Forgot to make the handle blue.dastrostockmarket.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08511275164934755490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78767847197289323522012-03-06T07:44:23.530+00:002012-03-06T07:44:23.530+00:00Funny post TMM, really good.
Next week I'll m...Funny post TMM, really good.<br /><br />Next week I'll make a new post regarding what my horoscopes tell me about the status of the movement that started past October. <br /><br />Keep up the good work.<br />DanDastronoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45259581642454335702012-02-24T21:54:37.272+00:002012-02-24T21:54:37.272+00:00Talking of ECRI, am I the only one to expect Achut...Talking of ECRI, am I the only one to expect Achuthan to say that 'there is always a recession in the banana stand' everytime he is on TV? Look at him more closely...it's uncannyDee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91332289911410788932012-02-24T21:42:49.822+00:002012-02-24T21:42:49.822+00:00Yen crosses have some legs into the weekend ...
...Yen crosses have some legs into the weekend ... <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87366045103705171782012-02-24T19:53:09.247+00:002012-02-24T19:53:09.247+00:00One thing about Japan, they really really do not l...One thing about Japan, they really really do not like outsiders, thus relatively few international investors would consider buy houses in Japan and live there.<br /><br />Total different stories in the US, Canada, and AustraliaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57509475922125438432012-02-24T19:30:19.258+00:002012-02-24T19:30:19.258+00:00Absolutely, one has to play the pseudo-cyclical ra...Absolutely, one has to play the pseudo-cyclical rallies! To be completely clear, I have been long during this rally, was still slightly net long in the last week or so, and now positioned more or less completely neutral. <br /><br />What one thinks about the rally and how one trades it are two quite different things. What is telling is that normally yields move out quite substantially in a large growth-based rally and that hasn't happened here, although US HY spreads have tightened a lot.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40705488166928715352012-02-24T19:12:24.172+00:002012-02-24T19:12:24.172+00:00interesting thoughts LB, trannies are rolling over...interesting thoughts LB, trannies are rolling over, i didnt notice that. but if we are going to be Japan style, then you have to play the cyclical rallies, no? U must be in the ECRI camp<br /><br />re house prices: Japanese real estate was in the stratosphere, US real estate was never that crazy. Lending standards were. House prices in many parts of the world are over valued now (canada, australia, china, brazil) and intl investors still like the US. I hope I'm wrong bc I dont own anything yet, but low interest rates, a steady economy and affordable prices are good for housingabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82205235948790658862012-02-24T18:56:16.705+00:002012-02-24T18:56:16.705+00:00"C" said: I've been through a lot of..."C" said: I've been through a lot of business cycles.<br /><br />True enough. But what everyone needs to get through their heads is that these are not NORMAL business cycles - none of us (outside of Japan) have been through business cycles in a ZIRP regime before 2008. This is the investing and economic version of Through The Looking Glass. ZIRP/QE regimes suppress volatility in the real economy. Hence the business cycles we are seeing are ± 1-2% and not ± 4-5%. See Japan, lost decades.<br /><br />This misunderstanding is causing a lot of people to chase commodities, junk bonds and growth stocks at the expense of Treasuries, IG corporate bonds and income-producers like utility stocks. This isn't employment growth, it's a small seasonal bump. This isn't a bull market - it's an equity market squeeze fueled by hot money and some not very smart hedge funds that stayed short at the end of the year and have been receiving cold steel.....<br /><br />LB is astonished at the amount of recency bias on display in the media. For a good example of what this is, one only need look back at the rolling top of March-April 2011. A glance at the DJT shows that one group of stocks is already rolling over. It's not 100% accurate but recessions associated with oil spikes ALWAYS cause the Trannies to roll over first and then the rest of the market follows.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJT/charts?countryCode=US&submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=6&freq=1&comp=Enter%20Symbol(s)%3A&compidx=aaaaa~0&compind=aaaaa~0&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=1&optstyle=1013" rel="nofollow"> Trannies </a><br /><br />Look And Learn. <br />Look And Learn, kids, Look And Learn.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80795753721646800402012-02-24T18:42:17.456+00:002012-02-24T18:42:17.456+00:00I think people will be surprised how quickly some ...I think people will be surprised how quickly some prices FALL after the banks let loose another flood of foreclosures/REO etc and stop artificially propping the market up....<br /><br />We are in the 5th or 6th inning of Price Discovery in housing. See Tokyo area prices, 1990-2012....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55258875230798789282012-02-24T15:53:10.633+00:002012-02-24T15:53:10.633+00:00real estate in Miami is hot, i mean up 30% YoY hot...real estate in Miami is hot, i mean up 30% YoY hot. Cali is behind but prices going up there as well. Only in the nice neighbourhoods for now but it will spread slowly<br /><br />I think ppl will be surprised how quickly some prices rise after foreclosures/REO etc stop pushing the market down<br /><br />Credit is still too tight though for average Joe. Mostly cash buyers. But it will help confidence. I'd love to load up on a 30yr mortgage right nowabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73732136339184977252012-02-23T17:05:41.517+00:002012-02-23T17:05:41.517+00:00Taurus - As a bull you must watch out for chastise...Taurus - As a bull you must watch out for chastisement in the blogosphere and be prepared to be accused of being a member of the illuminati. Buy SPX.....<br /><br /><br />They seem to be entertaining, be that at half time in NFL..<br /><br />ps..I can smell that ticket straight back to Asia already.Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78127132062543930402012-02-23T16:49:20.762+00:002012-02-23T16:49:20.762+00:00C says'
I am no inflationista. However 7 years...C says'<br />I am no inflationista. However 7 years into a US property slump and 5 years into a global credit crunch I think the tide is turning for employment and consumption and the liquidity policy in that sense is working.Within that context I look for lagging equity book value and overbought bonds.<br /><br />I've been through a lot of business cycles and what I know is it is not the absolut levels of anything that matter at extremes it the % changes that occur when even modest change ocur to the numbers.Hence, why I wouldn't want to be a country mile close to bonds at historically low yields regardless of what central banks might say.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8472684688129697052012-02-23T16:07:04.564+00:002012-02-23T16:07:04.564+00:00Hate disappoint you TMM in the middle of your mid-...Hate disappoint you TMM in the middle of your mid-trading-career existential crisis, but if we're going to prepare for the next ride up, you want let Fisher know that your saving the best to last. TMM Fund has gone out and invested their 2% management fee in an Feng Shui master in hope of overcoming the inflationistas on teh board.Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62814161182796219112012-02-23T13:07:06.649+00:002012-02-23T13:07:06.649+00:00C says'
"From a philosphical perspective ...C says'<br />"From a philosphical perspective if you cant laugh at the markets its got you beat."<br /><br />Well if we are going to go all philsophical I would rephrase that that if you cannot appreciate the emotional responses that the market invokes from you then you will beat yourself.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1185009313068345072012-02-23T12:46:09.510+00:002012-02-23T12:46:09.510+00:00Brilliant post after the sadness of your last exis...Brilliant post after the sadness of your last existential peice. All comedy certainly the way forward. <br /><br />From a philosphical perspective if you cant laugh at the markets its got you beat.ThoseWhoSpeakhttp://thosewhospeak.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36479606873231872982012-02-23T12:41:07.991+00:002012-02-23T12:41:07.991+00:00C says'
Hogging the posts today,but what do I ...C says'<br />Hogging the posts today,but what do I have other than time.<br />The next macro ,coming out of left field,where we like 'em ,is the much awaited uptick in persistent inflation that has for many been talked of ,but seldom found.<br />Liquidity supplied will this year finally do it's 'job' and of course bonds will not like it ,but neither will many equity sectors. In fact for some reason I find myself going all japanesy for equity inflation.There must be a reason for that.Perhaps moneyflow JGB to equity for the first time in many a moonseen horoscope.<br /><br />Why you ask do forsee such an event ? The sheer beadth and depth of this research will astound.It is that my local pub is extremely busy on even a Wednesday evening. I call this a leading indicator for inflation and I am tempted to send it to Sir Merv ,but something tells me it's significance would be lost on his Aries like inability to see past the wool that constantly overhangs his gaze.<br />Yes,he is an Aries and yes he really does conform to stereotype unfortunately.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88338847081230503712012-02-23T12:35:28.845+00:002012-02-23T12:35:28.845+00:00Well, the 10-year IT/ES has widened 20 in the last...Well, the 10-year IT/ES has widened 20 in the last couple of days. Something's brewing.Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43965514994882153732012-02-23T12:07:11.012+00:002012-02-23T12:07:11.012+00:00I should add that these low mom/volatility grinder...I should add that these low mom/volatility grinders are renown for shakes and preemptive shorts..buggers up the nerves of the best of people because stops become ludicrously closer as the move progresses and each become more and more protective of usually unexpected returns.And one bad hair day can take out at least a couple of weeks of treding gains with absolutely no warning. I've got a love to hate thing going on with markets like this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11642427999027654162012-02-23T12:02:17.440+00:002012-02-23T12:02:17.440+00:00C says'
Glad to see you off my couch young man...C says'<br />Glad to see you off my couch young man (men) although I am still trying to work out my group rate fee .<br />Gemini are natural pairs traders and as a Bull bollocks is my stock in trade.<br /><br />As for a Bacon butty ,in my dreams my friends,in my dreams. Search on 90% occluded and quintuple. Post operative is ideal for maintaining a sense of objective perspective on matters .Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com