tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post641229302948111906..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The impossible trinity?Macro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger42125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25355008604928529122014-08-22T15:43:20.678+01:002014-08-22T15:43:20.678+01:00Federal Reserve Board staff developed a labor mark...Federal Reserve Board staff developed a labor market conditions index from 19 labor market indicators, including four I just discussed. This broadly based metric supports the conclusion that the labor market has improved significantly over the past year, but it also suggests that the decline in the unemployment rate over this period somewhat overstates the improvement in overall labor market conditions.<br /><br />http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2014/assessing-the-change-in-labor-market-conditions-20140522.htmlabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51004257241737975362014-08-22T15:40:48.047+01:002014-08-22T15:40:48.047+01:00Can only speak from personal experience, but the b...Can only speak from personal experience, but the best thing she could do to get your author back to work is to raise rates, like, yesterday.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85161145071315836192014-08-22T15:37:55.872+01:002014-08-22T15:37:55.872+01:00Wishy washy Yellen..I guess in the grand scheme it...Wishy washy Yellen..I guess in the grand scheme it could be considered hawkish vs her other speeches, but not very<br /><br />Its ironic how the Fed is worried about the 'slack' in the labour market, those who still havent found a job. And how do they help them, buy doing QE and 0% rates so rich ppl can get more rich. If indeed it is structural, should not uncle sam get involved? But with an upcoming republican house i doubt anything sensible like that happens. <br /><br />Gotta love blunt toolsabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-92210959172415477122014-08-22T15:02:04.767+01:002014-08-22T15:02:04.767+01:00You had to mention bikes , didn't you.
It'...You had to mention bikes , didn't you.<br /><br />It's Fed day today, I wonder what position the P/L is going to be in a week from now once these sentimental trades are abolished and the NY desk is cut.<br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27695256100110016342014-08-22T14:43:13.251+01:002014-08-22T14:43:13.251+01:00I never understood cigar clubs. They seemed to be ...I never understood cigar clubs. They seemed to be for people who didn't smoke to go and pretend they knew everything about smoking. Bit like 45 year olds buying oversize motorbikes and all the kit once they pass their midlife crisis bike test. <br /> Cigar clubs should only allow members that already hold a 20 Marlies a day licence. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86791151957800514542014-08-22T14:00:57.115+01:002014-08-22T14:00:57.115+01:00Pol, I forgot to mention, don't flash your mem...Pol, I forgot to mention, don't flash your membership card to the Wall Street cigar club...it's like a free pass for people to piss ya!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47358241572469407602014-08-22T13:34:46.734+01:002014-08-22T13:34:46.734+01:00Actually, in this upside down world I expect we ar...Actually, in this upside down world I expect we are only a blip away from Equities rallying upon news of an invasion. Tonight I will rewatch One Flew Over The Cuckoos Nest again and see if I can't get into synch.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53362153235666029202014-08-22T13:31:14.710+01:002014-08-22T13:31:14.710+01:00C Says
The "Russians are invading" (agai...C Says<br />The "Russians are invading" (again) which means it must be Friday (again). BTD because it's just my online order from Waitrose on it's way.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46352159189031912872014-08-22T13:26:05.030+01:002014-08-22T13:26:05.030+01:00Pol, glad you can tolerate it..it's not the lo...Pol, glad you can tolerate it..it's not the losing trades that disappoint as we've all been there and it's becoming all to amusing now , it's just I've come to realize that overall I've only had one winner the boys on that desk and I doubt they even knew it!<br />But here am thumping my fuckin head into a Bloomberg screen thinking I can produce a winner again.It's time to stop placing sentimental trades and trade whats it in front of you. Fuck sentimentality I'm sticking to trading local assets.amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40881987783897464642014-08-22T12:56:49.704+01:002014-08-22T12:56:49.704+01:00The language is fine .. chill. As long as there is...The language is fine .. chill. As long as there is no nasty aggression between commenters . Otherwise it's a bit like seeing your kids fight. You love em all and you wish they'd love each other ! Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71828932868698147712014-08-22T12:50:20.930+01:002014-08-22T12:50:20.930+01:00Sorry again for my language, but I think it's ...Sorry again for my language, but I think it's time to quit trading with the boys in NY ...yes , they seriously lack judgement!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49709452945274632722014-08-22T10:28:42.729+01:002014-08-22T10:28:42.729+01:00Sorry guys about the language, but you have to bel...Sorry guys about the language, but you have to believe me ..that was the best I could!amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85494256584180679262014-08-22T10:12:30.704+01:002014-08-22T10:12:30.704+01:00Agree,there's no point going over how the bank...Agree,there's no point going over how the banks and regulators have condition segments of the market, that's sure to be spoken of in the years to come.<br />I will say though , that having been neutral the SP500 just before my last trip away the timing seemed right to move into euro credit and have a flutter at Shatin and prevent any hidden misalignment on the trading desk from coming to light thereby creating a debacle...but there was a push against it..<br /><br />Thanks a lot fuckwit!<br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30571234712465207092014-08-22T09:06:41.976+01:002014-08-22T09:06:41.976+01:00C Says
As to the Trinity concept I have little ide...C Says<br />As to the Trinity concept I have little idea, but found the historic look interesting. However, individually I see just cause for the $ and US govt yield to be attractive relative to their peers. Growth rate,energy external dependence losing ground etc. <br />May be growth is desultory by historic standards ,but it's been the best of a lousy bunch. The third leg, US equity less so only because to me the goods news has been priced in for quite sometime. Moreover a stronger $ will do to large caps balance sheets what it does the world over. Weak currency ,equity strength and the converse.<br /><br />Anon 8.47<br />$10 billion 'parked' should be thought of in demographics. No matter what the Fed does a large tranche of that belongs to the aging population and they are not going to be chasing yield. They are going to be protecting capital against volatility. That's just like the Sun rising in the morning and yes that also equates to the access figure of 11 months and for them even more. No surprise there at all. To understand it you just need to be old enough to have your best earning days behind you.<br />Indeed taken in broader context people in large have had a couple of really nasty smacks in just over a decade and realise job security ain't what it once was so the readies on tap makes sense.<br />I suppose you could say that central banks have and regulators have only themselves to blame for contributing to such learned behaviour. Unlearning it is probably a lengthy business.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1924000564457234782014-08-21T20:05:08.849+01:002014-08-21T20:05:08.849+01:00Good point on yield curves and recessions LB, but ...Good point on yield curves and recessions LB, but I really never bought the idea that the US is japan ;) ... ... Oh and a very belated welcome Mr. T ... <br /><br />ClausCVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-24303092563662402802014-08-21T19:32:21.483+01:002014-08-21T19:32:21.483+01:00Mr. T,
The paper you linked makes several arbitra...Mr. T,<br /><br />The paper you linked makes several arbitrary variable selections. Personally, it reeks of severe over-optimization.<br /><br />Best Regards.Sujnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47790121301695096662014-08-21T18:57:55.490+01:002014-08-21T18:57:55.490+01:00PS: i now read your post LB and could not agree mo...PS: i now read your post LB and could not agree more i too use dax as the main leading index, and it ain't prettyNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2578665821018765152014-08-21T18:56:07.575+01:002014-08-21T18:56:07.575+01:00"you will get more than enough time and evide..."you will get more than enough time and evidence to get out. No need to get short just yet" hedgie friends said the same again, late 2007 - they were waiting for the telegraph<br /><br />then Socgen hit the tape on Martin Luther King monday, unwinding the famed 'Kerviel unauthorised punt' and suddenly it was too late. After a shitty week, the spoos were limit down in globex the next Monday<br /><br />none of my buddies could short in time and felt it was then too late to do so - some managed to short the 1430 kiss back and trail well into 2009 - it boils down to your trading style<br /><br />i was short since late 2006. European banks only peaked in april 2007. i'd rather be short too early, and suffer like hell, than not short at all, make no money on the way down all the time thinking 'damm i HAD seen it'. <br /><br />I'd rather suffer on a early trade than miss a trade that i had seen coming. Call me a fool. To each their own timeframe and tolerance to losses. As you well know, one month of down can annihilate 12 months of grind up. You'd have to be 12 times faster to catch the momentum down<br /><br />inflation is too ethereal a concept for me to grab. There is inflation in French wine, there is inflation in art, Sothebys hit the 2007 top, a favourite bubbly indicator for some. There is inflation in London housing and if you check yachts anchored in Mykonos 2014 don't look too shabby<br /><br />most countries are still repairing their balance sheet, they are broken there is no way to overheat this time around, 2008 damage is still hidden in every book - national, corporate and private.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22185569035071224282014-08-21T18:40:32.364+01:002014-08-21T18:40:32.364+01:00I think some of us are over-obsessed with Spoos, w...I think some of us are over-obsessed with Spoos, which are being chased higher by a combination of the clueless and the relative safety large cap crowd. The IWM and the DAX are the best place to look at what we think are the real market dynamics, and both of these indices have shown weakness most of this calendar year.<br /><br />Re: US flatteners v steepeners, many are looking at the dynamics of past tightening cycles which follow on the heels of conventional recoveries/expansions. Once can't forget the strong anchoring effect of ZIRP and QE, which makes an inversion almost impossible. Those bonds are staying inside Dame Janet's petticoat for a really long time, folks.<br /><br />Here is a great article, far more erudite than my simplistic rants, and a cracking chart that shows The Japanese QE Experience - it shows how you can easily have a recession without a YC inversion once you cross to The Dark Side. Compliments to whoever put this together:<br /><br /><a href="http://fixingtheeconomists.wordpress.com/2014/04/11/the-yield-curve-and-recessions-against-us-centricism/" rel="nofollow"> Yield Curve and Recessions </a><br /><br />We now return you to your regularly scheduled summer silly season trading. Welcome Mr T!<br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44219796815691395712014-08-21T18:14:12.383+01:002014-08-21T18:14:12.383+01:00Nico G.
What we are missing from 2007 is inflati...Nico G. <br /><br />What we are missing from 2007 is inflation, that is the big difference. You dont see too many countries overheating like we did in '07<br /><br />If indeed the Spooz are topping, which i think has a good probability, i think you will get more than enough time and evidence to get out. No need to get short just yet<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40784612590741283152014-08-21T16:19:18.678+01:002014-08-21T16:19:18.678+01:00I'm not a huge fan of the Axioma models but th...I'm not a huge fan of the Axioma models but they are widely used and do a good job (too good in some cases) of predicting risk. This recent whitepaper seems relevant to the discussion. <br /><br /><a href="http://axioma.com/downloads/Axioma%20Research-Drawdowns%20Looming.pdf" rel="nofollow">Drawdowns Looming? It's Not in the Numbers...</a><br /><br />While some will surely use data like this to illustrate their point that we are topping ("when risk managers see the only risk of underperformance etc"), the results are based on a large amount of data and consistent with intuition about when markets have historically broken. As someone short index puts (one of those hopeless vol sellers...), I hope the data is right.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4920468405821873642014-08-21T15:28:02.564+01:002014-08-21T15:28:02.564+01:00credit card, student loans, Argentina or Portugal ...credit card, student loans, Argentina or Portugal are quite irrelevant since ISDA made sure there ain't such thing like a default anymore<br /><br />by October 2007 i mean the cross asset picture - a last attempt in the US equities when the rest of the world under performs at lower highs<br /><br />and similar credit compression starting to roll over - after too much money chased awful yield, a position similar to shorting convexity<br /><br />and a much uglier picture in fixed income.<br /><br />it is that last leg Abee just mentioned, it just happens, the bulk of the corporate buy back has been executed and it is getting harder to find buyers for that market<br /><br />at some point in March 2009 sellers capitulated, too and you really wondered why they'd sell at such a level.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36767981318094708142014-08-21T15:09:03.763+01:002014-08-21T15:09:03.763+01:00thanks guys, I appreciate the kind words.thanks guys, I appreciate the kind words.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63357635080812799692014-08-21T14:18:36.600+01:002014-08-21T14:18:36.600+01:00In Oct 2007 MBS had already started to default. Wh...In Oct 2007 MBS had already started to default. What is failing now? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47760408649901223232014-08-21T14:06:01.053+01:002014-08-21T14:06:01.053+01:00Call me naive, but I think the 2nd half will play ...Call me naive, but I think the 2nd half will play out exactly as consensus was expecting for the 1st half: U.S. economy gains steam and interest rates and the dollar creep up. <br /><br />I am in Rosie's camp: No reason to panic at the first rate hike.<br /><br />Now if I only knew what stocks will do in such a scenario... my best guess is mildly down and the same sector rotation as after the taper talk: cyclicals and euro periphery up, bond proxies and safe havens down.Gnome of Zurichnoreply@blogger.com