tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6357480273074501795..comments2024-03-28T00:23:22.838+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Hidden TruthsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger41125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7983235254396866892009-12-18T02:24:13.831+00:002009-12-18T02:24:13.831+00:00MM please explain "delta in non-monetized iss...MM please explain "delta in non-monetized issuance in Gilts dwarfs that of JGBs next year."<br />Are we talking QE or inflation?<br />TIAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66187788696949596362009-12-17T21:42:21.210+00:002009-12-17T21:42:21.210+00:00"England won't win the world cup (and the..."England won't win the world cup (and the press/players will be shocked). In fact, they'll even lose to the USA"<br /><br />LB can endure any forecast coming true, but not that.<br /><br />"I'm sure the early arrivers to DGDF and the barbarous relic don't give a monkey's"<br /><br />That really depends upon when they left the building, doesn't it old sport? It certainly was the trade of '09.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26324352795359887452009-12-17T21:16:08.166+00:002009-12-17T21:16:08.166+00:00Oh, and more importantly:
- Giants pip the Cowboys...Oh, and more importantly:<br />- Giants pip the Cowboys for a wild-card spot (though if the Steelers could rouse themselves to beat the Packers, that'd help too).<br />- AFC Wimbledon will return to professional football!<br />- England won't win the world cup (and the press/players will be shocked). In fact, they'll even lose to the USA (ruining my social life for a week or 3).Our Man in NYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05354882944509890790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87386356299150932582009-12-17T21:13:57.785+00:002009-12-17T21:13:57.785+00:00I'll bite:
- Australia will cut rates.
- Chin...I'll bite:<br />- Australia will cut rates.<br /><br />- China devalues (though I more hope that -- I think it'll be a 2011 thing, as they'll float...there'll be a mass inflow of foreign capital leading to a blow-off top).Our Man in NYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05354882944509890790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73773279414332302602009-12-17T21:13:08.824+00:002009-12-17T21:13:08.824+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Our Man in NYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05354882944509890790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57476607414495461392009-12-17T21:10:04.793+00:002009-12-17T21:10:04.793+00:00I'm sure the early arrivers to DGDF and the ba...I'm sure the early arrivers to DGDF and the barbarous relic don't give a monkey's - they must be coining it. They were probably close to the best trades of the year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64033102016625644462009-12-17T21:06:32.648+00:002009-12-17T21:06:32.648+00:00This has not been a very good month so far for lat...This has not been a very good month so far for late-arriving DGDFers and fans of the "barbarous relic". The death of the Treasury market seems to have been delayed again - at least for another 24 hours.<br /><br />One could obviously say more regarding the folly of chasing overcrowded trades, but the "ref" may be waiting with yellow card in hand..... LB doesn't want to end up like the (Pohang) Steelers of South Korea against Estudiantes. The over-enthusiastic Koreans ended up with only 8 men on the park.leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12433815216690576522009-12-17T20:57:09.859+00:002009-12-17T20:57:09.859+00:00EGDF !EGDF !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47981662274701855782009-12-17T20:52:15.699+00:002009-12-17T20:52:15.699+00:00umm no?
+ why not invite the UK to the party 2 ?...umm no? <br /><br />+ why not invite the UK to the party 2 ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85850772365290518292009-12-17T20:47:48.197+00:002009-12-17T20:47:48.197+00:00So is it in the interest of Germany or any other E...So is it in the interest of Germany or any other EU exporter to bail out Greece when the Euro is getting weaker and weaker thanks to Greece's (and Spain and Ireland) problems?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-67866499257914610022009-12-17T20:41:26.049+00:002009-12-17T20:41:26.049+00:00What changed "recently" is that dumb peo...What changed "recently" is that dumb people on Wall Street and credit rating agencies can no longer claim that the “sovereign CDS” “market” did not hint this garbage paper was risk free.<br /><br />As far as predictions for 2010 go - short tha silver!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52511886303531966292009-12-17T20:06:51.502+00:002009-12-17T20:06:51.502+00:00LB: 2010 -- see 2008.LB: 2010 -- see 2008.PJnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83293492385783113612009-12-17T20:05:59.248+00:002009-12-17T20:05:59.248+00:00>>LB: Anyone have predictions for 2010?
Ane...>>LB: Anyone have predictions for 2010?<br /><br />Anecdotal, but surprising to me, is the fact that at my firm, we're having trouble getting orders for business equipment filled before end of year. I don't know whether others are seeing this as well, and I hate the thought of the drum-beating hairpieces on tv being right, but the tech sector might be worth a second look.k1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82755037511465253472009-12-17T19:07:56.909+00:002009-12-17T19:07:56.909+00:00Surely this is just a dress rehearsal for the main...Surely this is just a dress rehearsal for the main event? Not really expecting any major melts before New Year, are we? Anyone have predictions for 2010?leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9890548651536255362009-12-17T18:38:59.824+00:002009-12-17T18:38:59.824+00:00Steve: If there are 260bp of differences between t...<i>Steve: If there are 260bp of differences between the UK and Japan I can't find them.</i><br /><br />The British government is woefully over-dependent on two sources of revenue: North Sea oil field royalties and taxes from the financial industry.<br /><br />The oil field royalties topped a few years ago -- both the government and independent oil companies agree the fields have peaked and future revenue will continue to decline<br /><br />The financial industry is quite obviously in trouble in the short term (next 4-5 years). RBS continues to bleed cash, and it hasn't even started to be restructured. Other big banks are not exactly in great shape either. And most recently, the government decided to try to shrink the size of the financial sector with a series of taxes, new regulations, and higher capital requirements -- while simultaneously calling for the same banks to lend more to underwater home owners.<br /><br />Any corporate bond issued by a company whose two main revenue streams were drying up and in trouble would be trading in junk status.<br /><br />The only difference with the UK is the number of former students who were brainwashed into thinking sovereign debt is risk free, because the government can always print money<br /><br />Like Greece? Like Argentina? Like dozens of other banana republics? Countries that print lots of money to pay their bills end up in defacto, if not literal, default<br /><br />And the UK? This time will not be differentBobnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-963802119579604912009-12-17T18:22:14.102+00:002009-12-17T18:22:14.102+00:00Donlast: Why has the anxiety about sovereign debt ...Donlast: Why has the anxiety about sovereign debt suddenly emerged in recent weeks? This may seem a naive question<br /><br />"suddenly"??? Do you live under a rock or do you work for Moody's?<br /><br />When Tim Geithner became Treasury Secretary at the start of this year (months before "recent weeks") -- he went to Beijing for a series of talks and did a presentation in front of several hundred Chinese students.<br /><br />Geither assured the students that US Treasuries were perfectly safe -- <b><i>and the students burst out laughing</i></b><br /><br />The concern for highly risky sovereign debt isn't new -- the Chinese students were not the first to notice something was wrong.<br /><br />Iceland (months ago), Greece and Dubai simply put the story on the front page of every newspaper.<br /><br />What changed "recently" is that dumb people on Wall Street and credit rating agencies can no longer claim this garbage paper to be risk freeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62522353240103310812009-12-17T17:58:23.340+00:002009-12-17T17:58:23.340+00:00Why has the anxiety about sovereign debt suddenly ...Why has the anxiety about sovereign debt suddenly emerged in recent weeks? This may seem a naive question but candidates for the sovereign intensive care unit have been lying around for many months, ever since the debt crisis began. Who has been placing their bets and now feels it is time to let loose the dogs of debt default. Psst ..watch out for Dubai...avoid Greece. Who wants the Dollar up and the Euro down? Curiouser and curiouser, said Alice.Donlasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14400745649069349297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-52872127367316605682009-12-17T17:49:35.410+00:002009-12-17T17:49:35.410+00:00Steve: If there are 260bp of differences between t...Steve: <i>If there are 260bp of differences between the UK and Japan I can't find them.</i><br /><br />Try looking at the inflation stats! UK +1.9% y/y, Japan -2.2%. UK real yields are pretty darned low compared with the rest of the developed world, inflation is already at target and rising, the Bank is telling you that they are prepared to remain behind the inflation curve for some time, and the delta in non-monetized issuance in Gilts dwarfs that of JGBs next year.<br /><br />(I went small short a couple of days ago.)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89685048536917567252009-12-17T17:32:32.451+00:002009-12-17T17:32:32.451+00:00Ah, WFC. I was short for a good while there, long...Ah, WFC. I was short for a good while there, long enough to have taken a loss despite covering at a reasonably good point during the TARP-exit rumors. I still hate the thing at current or higher prices given the likely path of economic conditions facing its borrowers, but have great hopes to short later at a higher price. I expect the extraordinary support the government is providing the residential housing market will provide the opportunity eventually. Where and when, of course, is the big question. I have always been terrible at timing.<br /><br />FD: no WFC position now.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20157797925181807572009-12-17T17:10:14.988+00:002009-12-17T17:10:14.988+00:00http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/clips...http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/clips/nprs-delicious-dish-schweddy-balls/2846/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23941723116387593202009-12-17T16:58:40.703+00:002009-12-17T16:58:40.703+00:00That's 'cause we have on our Christmas bal...That's 'cause we have on our Christmas balls LBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61586297788644328912009-12-17T15:26:57.400+00:002009-12-17T15:26:57.400+00:00AUD:JPY and AUD:USD not looking good today. Mrs Wa...AUD:JPY and AUD:USD not looking good today. Mrs Watanabe will have some 'splainin' to do when Setsuo wakes up. <br /><br />Yield on Treasuries is looking more appealing today, relative to that from C, and other smelly instruments.<br /><br />Looks like the EoY flight to safety trade finally arrived, MM. Just when we'd all decided to trade smaller, of course.....leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33291491340052054372009-12-17T14:48:45.546+00:002009-12-17T14:48:45.546+00:00Steve,
a lot of 'new' demand for products ...Steve,<br />a lot of 'new' demand for products (mogas+diesel) is in Asia + MEast.<br />Pump prices are heavily subsidised so demand grwth remains regardless. And ,under DGDF scenario, a hard currency helps as well to cushion expensive (in us$) oil.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42999913661282111142009-12-17T14:40:28.147+00:002009-12-17T14:40:28.147+00:00Anon at 2:16, appreciate your thoughts on crude. C...Anon at 2:16, appreciate your thoughts on crude. Confirms my basic thinking that bullish crude in 2010 depends on DGDF. I'm bullish DXY to mid 80s but, like I said, no real money to work on this thesis. Do own airlines which have benefited from this but that thesis has more to do with industry consolidation issues.L/S Equity Guynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26878845620253343892009-12-17T14:28:27.546+00:002009-12-17T14:28:27.546+00:00Gregor I don't disagree but am short gold at t...Gregor I don't disagree but am short gold at the moment, think we can work our way down to 1030.<br /><br />On crude, both crude and gold are anti-fiat but crude is too expensive to store for that purpose. Can demand sustain crude above $70? Not for long, I don't think.Stevenoreply@blogger.com