tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6312441654354901377..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Crude and inflationMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9599031929028079062016-10-21T02:28:02.163+01:002016-10-21T02:28:02.163+01:00Hmm. Oil did go down after Saudis got that bond is...Hmm. Oil did go down after Saudis got that bond issue out of the way... good callsydneypunternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91607776735088543502016-10-20T22:08:05.027+01:002016-10-20T22:08:05.027+01:00Once again, weakness in equities at the end of the...<i>Once again, weakness in equities at the end of the day...</i><br />Not if you 'hedged' in Dax & Nasdaq ;)12yo HFMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88297824076905082522016-10-20T21:19:37.185+01:002016-10-20T21:19:37.185+01:00Once again, weakness in equities at the end of the...Once again, weakness in equities at the end of the day...<br /><br />..Sure looks trendy to me.Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64501806766983648722016-10-20T20:07:14.751+01:002016-10-20T20:07:14.751+01:00Interesting. We have often discussed the relations...Interesting. We have often discussed the relationship between oil and inflation here. If Yellen really wanted to goose US CPI she could just call Blankfein and ask to activate the J Aron unit again to manipulate the price of crude while their high yield traders make a sh*tload going long on energy junk bonds. [oooh, you don't think she did this in the winter?? They wouldn't, would they?? When the history of this period is written we will find out they did all this kind of stuff - and worse]. <br /><br />In any case, we are clearly set for a "transitory" spike in the CPI (thanks, Dame Janet) because of the base effect you describe above, and TIPs seem to have been anticipating this for some time, TIP being one of the year's better performers.<br /><br />So the crude squeeze has injected some inflation, possibly a lot in the short-term, but with the futures rolling to the December contract and the Saudi bond sale safely launched we may well have seen the end of the latest batch of market manipulation via options contracts, and LB anticipates a gradual return toward price dynamics dictated by supply/demand.<br /><br />Let's review some fundamentals: US rig counts are rising slowly but consistently once again, production appears to be rising globally, and price action in most other commodities is soft, revealing a slowing global economy. All these factors are consistent with a lower oil price by the end of the year. Other factors in play: a firmer dollar is negative for crude; in addition, speculative longs are close to or at record high levels and late arrivals will bail quickly when price turns.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74676363888197322652016-10-20T19:39:47.679+01:002016-10-20T19:39:47.679+01:00Anyone got a handle on the contiued euro & USD...Anyone got a handle on the contiued euro & USD move? I thought we might see a little pullback post ecb presser. Might be some pain out there soon. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-61729849925787064062016-10-20T17:04:19.185+01:002016-10-20T17:04:19.185+01:00@MM, it might at a low weight, but I think the sig...@MM, it might at a low weight, but I think the significant difference is including <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=7Pvc" rel="nofollow">owners equivalent rent</a> at a high weight. The primary residence series excludes it and so I guess better isolates rents in low-homeownership areas.<br /><br />@washedup, in aggregate <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=7PzI" rel="nofollow">Disp PI less PCE Housing</a> looks okay, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=7PA9" rel="nofollow">median wages to CPI rent</a> looks okay.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-77242053117785786602016-10-20T15:56:17.746+01:002016-10-20T15:56:17.746+01:00Unrelated. Ftse leader piece of s... Royal Bank of...Unrelated. Ftse leader piece of s... Royal Bank of Scotland. Say's it all really.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48080108658366543122016-10-20T14:28:04.537+01:002016-10-20T14:28:04.537+01:00@wcw - the relevant series would be to construct a...@wcw - the relevant series would be to construct an altogether different series, perhaps disposable income ex rent, and look at the median of that - bottomline, the aggregation involved in average hourly earnings glosses away inequality effects, leaving the impression of a populace thats more upbeat and likely to spend than it actually is.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91818638440030137942016-10-20T14:24:25.961+01:002016-10-20T14:24:25.961+01:00Mine is the rent of primary residence. I think yo...Mine is the rent of primary residence. I think your might include hotels, etc.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64870873278081060242016-10-20T14:20:55.043+01:002016-10-20T14:20:55.043+01:00I've got average hourly earnings up versus CPI...I've got average hourly earnings <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=7PqN" rel="nofollow">up versus CPI rent</a>. Not great, not awful.wcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-84149550088016265702016-10-20T12:16:47.557+01:002016-10-20T12:16:47.557+01:00got it, thxgot it, thxjdc32noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35761387579360051122016-10-20T11:54:51.371+01:002016-10-20T11:54:51.371+01:00This is using month end data on the chart. Crude...This is using month end data on the chart. Crude did go positive y/y intramonth in August before lapsing back to negative by month end.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65249397560212484432016-10-20T11:42:14.019+01:002016-10-20T11:42:14.019+01:00I'm not sure your data/charts on crude are cor...I'm not sure your data/charts on crude are correct.... both Brent and WTI have had positive year on year prints back in August?jdc32noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54423109880637425542016-10-20T09:13:12.879+01:002016-10-20T09:13:12.879+01:00The base effects also have real implications for T...The base effects also have real implications for Tips too, if in not mistaken, which is based on actaul cpi. <br /><br />Are u suggesting that draghi wont renew qe. I guess that would be viwed as positive for banks but gotta think euro will try to rally hard, which will be counter productive (though right outta boj playbook)...interesting. abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.com