tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post6120391534379973051..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Encore Une FoisMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13078206889746336352014-07-31T21:37:37.542+01:002014-07-31T21:37:37.542+01:00DB at new multi-year lows . Keep hearing whispers ...DB at new multi-year lows . Keep hearing whispers they could be key to the 'black swan'Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53878958100539637062014-07-31T21:26:31.385+01:002014-07-31T21:26:31.385+01:00If I were Edward II then the man with the portable...If I were Edward II then the man with the portable forge has entered the room and is poking the very hot coals with a poker whilst greeting me with a friendly "Ah, Eddie my old chum I've brought the barbecue but I seem to have dropped the sausages down the other side of the table , would you mind leaning over to get them for me? There's a good fellow" <br /> I m looking forward to some tasty bbq'd chitterlings too. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86642871470890038112014-07-31T20:50:38.993+01:002014-07-31T20:50:38.993+01:00BES reminds me of a friend buying Bear in 2007, &q...BES reminds me of a friend buying Bear in 2007, "Common its Bear Sterns, its not like they are gonna go bankrupt tomorrow". bought in at $40 on friday. Monday it was $2.<br /><br />Greetings from HYG. Time to start sniffing around for whats getting thrown out, but unless you wanna buy Russia I am keeping the kevlar secured so farabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21047109510727281532014-07-31T19:01:42.736+01:002014-07-31T19:01:42.736+01:00BES is toast. I wouldn't pay a single cent on ...BES is toast. I wouldn't pay a single cent on the dollar for that worthless trash... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-20364648044375952802014-07-31T18:37:01.969+01:002014-07-31T18:37:01.969+01:00Ukraine stox up 44% YoY
http://imgur.com/2fTiQqq...Ukraine stox up 44% YoY <br /><br />http://imgur.com/2fTiQqqAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38266076453713513082014-07-31T16:23:00.292+01:002014-07-31T16:23:00.292+01:00LB, can you spare me some kevlar gloves and maybe ...LB, can you spare me some kevlar gloves and maybe some steel capped shoes as well? Got badly hit in BES today after taking their total exposure to the ES group declaration at face value. Maybe I should have accounted for the desperate founders family getting criminal at the end...<br /><br />Sold out with a huge loss. I am now waiting for the recap, they need at least 2bln if not 3bln with a current 1.2bln market cap. I guess a heavier discount is in the making than today's price. But there's certainly a lot of value in there with 1bln of annual pre-provision income.<br /><br />Now back to my banks in the _IGS.Gnome of Zurichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36320720699736518252014-07-31T15:07:32.565+01:002014-07-31T15:07:32.565+01:00LB, why not take the sub bonds instead. at 60 cent...LB, why not take the sub bonds instead. at 60 cents they are looking interesting. Say you get converted into equity, so that is a mkt cap of $400M... hmm<br /><br />Eurostoxx looks like it is gonna take a big dump if we dont hold here<br /><br />Meanwhile someone forgot to tell Asia... hmmm I smell some big rotation hereabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-16734365505687212042014-07-31T13:44:51.134+01:002014-07-31T13:44:51.134+01:00Price is News. Was that 4% GDP print really the be...Price is News. Was that 4% GDP print really the best possible news for Spoos? Futures down this morning. Anyway, über-bulls can enjoy that while we look at some fixed income opportunities.<br /><br />Kevlar gloves at the ready for Banco Espirito Santo now that earnings are behind them? This is cheaper than cheap, assuming it is still going to be around. The history with banks is usually that someone blinks.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30568475689411833492014-07-31T13:37:25.952+01:002014-07-31T13:37:25.952+01:00Quick summary, as I'm in the middle of studies...Quick summary, as I'm in the middle of studies, yep , those yennish fatigue cycles appear in football ratings too.<br />Anyway, I concur with the theme Macro Man has directed this blog of late, also agree it's not likely to be the sole indicator to help us pick a top though.<br />The fascinating question I keep asking myself is is when the top is in what is the expected percentage of decline and the length of time, as touch on , it's all about leverage , where is it and how sensitive will it be once exposed to selling.<br />The hedge funds that own swaths of RE maybe to big to care given the prices paid...there's smarter people than me that should know.<br />Governments will hibernate with bonds and etc.<br /><br />Ps...MM & TMM , my holiday has been fantastic and I recently found out that you just can't go anywhere without bumping into those cretins that have had first dibs on you when it comes to telling stories about how well your Ping putter held up when putting for the tournament, well , it wasn't tournament, but it was a pretty big gallery anyway!<br /><br /><br />amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19130302298825308132014-07-31T10:28:39.078+01:002014-07-31T10:28:39.078+01:00C Says
Yes, well I'm sure the finer arguments ...C Says<br />Yes, well I'm sure the finer arguments are interesting enough from a nuanced viewpoint. However, it's always more important when you get to the counter party level. Whose holding what and what's going to happen when they have to sell. That's really what extremes in leverage are always about ,because they catch up all those people who at first blush you wouldn't think were exposed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-92228246290559798742014-07-31T07:57:37.422+01:002014-07-31T07:57:37.422+01:00The balance between debt capital v equity capital ...The balance between debt capital v equity capital is a tricky one. Why not take advantage of almost free debt if you're a corp treasurer? I'd be filling my boots. On the opposite side of the ledger we have I believe record corporate cash holdings. So whilst I agree once we see the rate cycle normalise there will be problems at the lower end I don't see the total amount of corporate borrowings as inherently dangerous.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73981405797785817792014-07-30T21:25:20.019+01:002014-07-30T21:25:20.019+01:00MM, to be fair, shouldnt we gauge US credit condit...MM, to be fair, shouldnt we gauge US credit conditions by earnings<br /><br />http://imgur.com/Hf3ZZZE<br /><br />The way I see it is that for the most part corporate america is in good shape re: credit. There are pockets are filth which will get hammered when the cycle turns. <br /><br />Leverage is always defined with 2 variables. So if you think earnings(profit margins) or asset values are inflated then the current leverage ratio may be overstating the realityabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45927435443780901692014-07-30T20:43:14.448+01:002014-07-30T20:43:14.448+01:00from an unknown uber bull (can you guess) Re; GDP
...from an unknown uber bull (can you guess) Re; GDP<br /><br />The hater community will now need to do some serious soul searching to find something to complain about on the US economic front. But even the new normal and secular stagnation crowds (who are not true haters but more like grumpy old folks) will need to come to grips with the first 6 handle on NOMINAL GDP since 2006. While we have had a number 4 prints on the real side in the last few years, the deflator was never cooperating to give us 6+ percent nominal growth - until now.<br /><br />So it appears after all that QE can generate reflation, much to the chagrin of those who mistakenly thought the US was Japan. And more importantly, it appears that things just really aren't that different than they used to be on the real side of the economy. A 6 handle on nominal GDP is probably the best economic news we could have hoped for. And given that NOMINAL income growth ultimately drives NOMINAL asset price growth, this the best news spoos could have hoped for. Good luck trading.<br /><br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85186827087324562032014-07-30T19:29:41.466+01:002014-07-30T19:29:41.466+01:00It's going to take a lot more than CEOC with a...It's going to take a lot more than CEOC with a recovery rate > 90% to dislodge the HY market. Yields may rise but I think the credit cycle is still very much alive.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41678652691446371292014-07-30T17:05:34.027+01:002014-07-30T17:05:34.027+01:00It's possible that Dame Janet will also say &q...It's possible that Dame Janet will also say "Encore Une Fois" today and instruct the FOMC to dance the Can-Can. Bulls imagine she will lift her petticoat for punters and kick up her heels, promising years and years of monetary easy virtue. Then again, if you watched the price action at the open today, perhaps not. We were sellers of the renewed surge in economic exuberance this morning. <br /><br />We have been castigated many times here for our gloomy views of the US economy. Let's do the mathematics, then. After the 4% Q2 (likely to be revised downwards) due to the "consumer bounce" and "inventory rebuild" to recover from "weather", we are now at a net 1.0% GDP for the year to date, which is 0.25% annualized. If you tack on a couple of 2.5% growth quarters, you still get to only 1.5%. This is reality. You can have QE infinity and smoke anything you want but the demographics do dictate slow growth in the US.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.com