tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post606815910542555230..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: What a difference a day makesMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger43125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11339011714200539252022-10-29T07:35:39.102+01:002022-10-29T07:35:39.102+01:00I loved this publish and your located up so fantas...<br />I loved this publish and your located up so fantastic and really informative , thanks for sharing this positioned up and gain some knowledge on <a href="https://www.salespenny.com/marketing-stories/ford-ads/" rel="nofollow">sales</a> techniques.Tinker Journahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06886376208791493266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55251314358922870172021-10-16T10:03:49.171+01:002021-10-16T10:03:49.171+01:00Thanks for sharing this wonderful artcile
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The short answer for me is that I want to see Bovespa P/E's in the single digits to adequately reflect the risk premium from inflation, high nominal and real rates, etc. That's where they were a dozen years ago, and that's where I think they're going again. At a forecast P/E essentially identical to Germany's, it's a no brainer for me- I get plenty of upside and much less risk from investing in Europe. Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17871743277948172992015-10-14T23:03:48.707+01:002015-10-14T23:03:48.707+01:00I think the possibility needs to be considered tha...I think the possibility needs to be considered that the dollar rally may be on hold for a long, long time (say a few quarters) before it goes risk-off kamikaze supernova into the final round of the EM crash - it wouldn't be unprecedented at all, and in fact we saw these periods aplenty in the late 90's.The EM hatred ship is quite crowded and careening from side to side, and captain Burbank and first officer Pal have done a few too many media appearances to avoid the victory lap indicator curse - there is a bit of a negative correlation returning between the dollar and commodities which had all but disappeared the last few months, which I see as a decent indicator of flows beginning to reverse some.<br /><br />The long bond rally even with dollar weakness is the other tell - markets seem to saying (perhaps prematurely) that global growth is gone and the Fed will have no choice but to return with heroin meant more to bail out EM than for domestic concerns, hence the simultaneous rally in gold and treasuries in the last couple of days. <br /><br />I am not sure piling into a spoos short, tempting as it sounds, is the best strategy here. I empathize with US equity bears fundamentally, and boy will their time come, but I don't think they are done bleeding. <br /><br />LB thinks the dollar will rally and washedup thinks it may continue to fall - whatever u accuse the members of this board of, a lack of intellectual nimbleness should not be on that list!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64746061967027263112015-10-14T22:45:32.682+01:002015-10-14T22:45:32.682+01:00am short USDJPY at 120 something targeting 100. To...am short USDJPY at 120 something targeting 100. Took time to take off. Not an expert on yen but gut feeling is we'll see a complete Empire Strikes Back on the currency front. pretty much because noone is expecting it (long term stuff)<br /><br />Europe (stoxx) seems to be finding some footing here so cut half of short, hoping to reload a bit higher (swing)Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60578323179661229932015-10-14T21:24:40.570+01:002015-10-14T21:24:40.570+01:00Very strong statement EUR and JPY making against U...Very strong statement EUR and JPY making against USD here. Historically not a good sign for eq bulls? Fed flip flop is starting to finally kick in on gold as well. Really bucky seems to be a key player here affecting most other things of interest. And is it already beginning to call the bluff of the claimed, famous "hike in our time" written on the peace of paper - a mere year before NIRP-wars really kick off. Like Spain in '36 was just a teaser, maybe we haven't seen anything from CB's yet comparing to whats still coming. A deja vu resemblance too far?<br /><br />In the case of Brazil wonder if it will become a life saver or just kick the hard currency debt -crisis can down the road a bit further. But its interesting to think that depressing these EMs deep enough at some point they'll spring up in force, a.k.a alpha generator of a life time.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58761736849577490062015-10-14T21:14:39.880+01:002015-10-14T21:14:39.880+01:00We are not big FX punters, but.... USDJPY not far ...We are not big FX punters, but.... USDJPY not far off the August lows (118) here, should provide support if we get there overnight, which is possible, but this level right here [118.50-75] has also provided support on several occasions. EURUSD to face stiff resistance around 1,16?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14328508693412009552015-10-14T20:58:33.538+01:002015-10-14T20:58:33.538+01:00For all the doom and gloom around today we have on...For all the doom and gloom around today we have only just seen Spoos pull back close to the 50 dma. So this may be healthy backing and filling before another leg up towards 2040, or the 200 dma, which is now at SPX 2060. Vol sellers still in control with Vix < 18?<br /><br />EURUSD is now knocking on the door of 1.15. So much for Euro collapse, Parity Fans... but you'd have to say it's had a good run and a reversal (and Bucky recovery) is on the cards here. Of late that has been bullish for equities, other than emerging markets.<br /><br />The FOMC hike is so far off the table at this point that it's not even in the same restaurant.... just not seeing a great deal of macro factors to prevent Mr Market climbing the proverbial Wall of Worry. The Falling dollar will already be easing some of the pressure on US exporters and multinationals, and remember that Mr Market is always looking forward, and unlike TeeVee pundits, he is not as obsessed with Q3 earnings as he is with the outlook for Q4 and Q1.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21248782520278890222015-10-14T20:10:52.435+01:002015-10-14T20:10:52.435+01:00Ha ha ...
Yep; gold miners, ags/fertilizer compa...Ha ha ... <br /><br />Yep; gold miners, ags/fertilizer companies, and Europe doing the heavy lifting in Retail R' US LLP. I managed to avoid the Walmart disaster too, which was nice for a change, and got some tailwinds from other earnings this week. Mind you, this only just about compensates for previous earnings calamities this year, but we soldier on. I also confess to being long a very tiny LatAm position. God help me! <br /><br />Could be LB, could very well be. Obviously mine is manual too.CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43203845995048281822015-10-14T19:55:18.882+01:002015-10-14T19:55:18.882+01:00LOL on "buying Brazil b/c it's shit"...LOL on "buying Brazil b/c it's shit". Yeah, guilty of some of that here too, but like dude, it's about position size.... that alone saves my arse time and time again.<br /><br />Europe and Emerging Markets (VGK/VWO) outperforming SPY today, and in fact KICKING BUTT, as you chaps would say. I think Mr T, CV, MM and others are on board the non-US bandwagon.<br /><br />CV & LB Separated at Birth? Part Two. LB drives a 12 year old (manual) gas guzzling BMW. Paid for.. Not as fancy as a Tesla but. hey it's good for giving rides to US ladies who sometimes admit to being "a huge fan of stick". I'll get my coat..Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26639160551807911402015-10-14T19:53:19.702+01:002015-10-14T19:53:19.702+01:00Malaysian bonds..."sale of $6.5 billion in bo...Malaysian bonds..."sale of $6.5 billion in bonds that alone brought in close to $600 million in fees" to Goldman Sachs. Is that considered a high fee?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55933927892765510852015-10-14T19:51:03.487+01:002015-10-14T19:51:03.487+01:00Investors are again paying to hold 5y German debt....Investors are again paying to hold 5y German debt. Germany sold €2.44bn 5y bunds at -0.03%, 1st neg yield since Apr.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54633026104226842032015-10-14T19:09:02.638+01:002015-10-14T19:09:02.638+01:00Macro Man since this site has gone over to the Sto...Macro Man since this site has gone over to the Stoic's, please communicate your EWZ call more clearly. What is your time frame for not owning EWZ, five minutes, a lifetime??? <br />Small Investors have a difficult time buying Brazil Sovereign Debt or Iran's or any other obscure principality you care to mention.<br />However, as was pointed out by the WSJ, Brazil banks are chock full of high yielding Sovereign's so even if they have massive losses on their loan book they will be re-capitalized eventually.<br />Looking at the components of EWZ today I see Fibria Celulose, Klabin and Raia Drogasil have all benefited from the depreciation.<br />As I write Vale up 1.89%, BBD 1.55%.<br />I have no doubt you are a much better FX Oracle than I'll ever be but please weigh in on your time frame. <br />Better yet clue us in on where all the relative value is in this sea of ZIRP.<br /><br />PS- Your blog is always very entertaining. Thank You for that.<br /><br />MorganAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45173019102289293362015-10-14T18:10:20.118+01:002015-10-14T18:10:20.118+01:00We've all done trades we're not proud of t...We've all done trades we're not proud of that seem completely bonkers in the light of day; stuff's hard. There's space in the ecosystem for all sorts, even shoot-from-the-hip cowboys like Novogratz. As long as investors go in with their eyes open, I don't have a problem. Even though he might theoretically be peeing in the pool for other macro punters, it's not as if the rest of macro land has been tearing it up either over the last several years. As for the talking heads piling on macro, everyone gets it sooner or later; it's all part of the great circle of investing life. Plus, everyone loves a good blow-up.<br /><br />If macro is in the dogbox, it's because the returns haven't been there. Maybe one can argue that the movie's not over yet, and over the fullness of the cycle this will change, but that's a difficult argument to make given most investors' horizons.ThudandBlundernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72556712389902912062015-10-14T17:50:29.258+01:002015-10-14T17:50:29.258+01:00I think you guys are too bearish. You can piss in...I think you guys are too bearish. You can piss into the wind against the central banks, but why? It's one thing if you think they are turning hawkish or even if there are indicators they should be turning hawkish, but quite simply neither case is on display here. If anything we are seeing renewed efforts to <i>stimulate</i> and a real, concerted global effort to create above trend growth and inflation. If the primary mechanism continues to be asset prices it strikes me as a low probability bet to put on index trades betting for lower prices. It's a sexy trade, and it has lots of "I saw through the CB smoke" appeal, but its still a low probability trade.<br /><br />PM's resilient again even w/o a viable inflation argument. I might be early but the valuetraps in the commodity space are too good to walk by.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7496280636220780912015-10-14T17:17:00.606+01:002015-10-14T17:17:00.606+01:00Secular shift as West passes excess consumption ba...Secular shift as West passes excess consumption baton to developing Asia et al, raising household savings rates and killing garage sales. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-23580673264520702902015-10-14T17:15:30.873+01:002015-10-14T17:15:30.873+01:00Taking the view that the peg would hold and EUR/CH...Taking the view that the peg would hold and EUR/CHF would go up, ex ante, is reasonable, even if I might disagree. Articulating that through a spot position or worse yet, selling puts, when market forces had pinned spot to the peg and it was obvious that IF the peg failed all hell would break lose, is not. Disclosure: at my old fund, when EUR/CHF was ~ 1.22, I use to have the position on. I sold 1 figure wide put spreads to fund upside calls and ran tiny short delta against, which is the only way I could sleep at night putting my faith in an arbitrary peg from an arbitrary CB. When spot gravitated towards 1.20 and flatlined, I totally lost interest.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73553344633385712912015-10-14T17:03:56.469+01:002015-10-14T17:03:56.469+01:00A somewhat well known macro fund was talking to us...A somewhat well known macro fund was talking to us to explain why they dropped 10% on eurchf. Their trade rationale was that CHF would weaken more than EUR with the anticipated ECB QE, and their faith in SNB was strong. (Not very confidence inspiring esp as the ex-trader drinking club had been talking abt putting on eurchf puts as tail hedge for months prior). More troubling was their response when asked what they would do goin fwd. "Well our risk controls kicked in and though we breached our loss guidelines, the controls were proved to work. The big boys (swf 'smart' money) are ok as they feel that once in a while you'll get hit with some 'unforeseeable' event. "Cowboynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19875954629266009222015-10-14T16:46:57.595+01:002015-10-14T16:46:57.595+01:0012mo TBills have rallied 55% in last 4 weeks .... ...12mo TBills have rallied 55% in last 4 weeks .... from 0.46% to 0.21% today Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13874800255116121552015-10-14T16:45:34.303+01:002015-10-14T16:45:34.303+01:00SFFed says current rate policy is actually "t...SFFed says current rate policy is actually "tight" given current econ conditions Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17175155486535240542015-10-14T16:26:10.162+01:002015-10-14T16:26:10.162+01:00Spoo's having a tough time at recent resistanc...Spoo's having a tough time at recent resistance, as NASDAQ isnt leading and now with oil pulling back, who will pick up the rotation battalion? Some big industrial reporting tonight/tom morning, could set the tone for the whole growth argument. <br /><br />I thought we were for sure going to tag the 200day in S&P @ 2060 but maybe not. <br /><br />JPY breaking the pincers now<br /><br />Still confused, now slightly shortabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89048935475679210862015-10-14T16:26:02.787+01:002015-10-14T16:26:02.787+01:00Anon 2:48 here. It's as the HFT algo's for...Anon 2:48 here. It's as the HFT algo's foretold. Stops taken, market thus free to fall.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-32150486530766036312015-10-14T14:48:13.616+01:002015-10-14T14:48:13.616+01:00believe it or not Playboy is a really good read. I...believe it or not Playboy is a really good read. In public places you just had to go real fast from the article before onto the article after centerpage but they are fixing this nowNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.com