tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5951528220107983231..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The Case of the Missing RecordMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69044369372792831212015-12-30T19:15:20.999+00:002015-12-30T19:15:20.999+00:00why do you still let anons post on such a quality ...why do you still let anons post on such a quality place?Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21346789864447587972015-12-30T14:47:26.726+00:002015-12-30T14:47:26.726+00:00Please don't pollute this space with that rubb...Please don't pollute this space with that rubbish. I have less than zero desire to provide another forum for ZH's views on social issues.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69762355855639414482015-12-30T14:40:37.542+00:002015-12-30T14:40:37.542+00:00Immigrants are raping and murdering white European...Immigrants are raping and murdering white Europeans, whilst authorities do nothing to stop it:<br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-29/swedens-first-month-islamic-multiculturalism-rapes-acquittals-severed-heads<br /><br />Swiss army Chief warns of social unrest, calls upon citizens to arm themselves:<br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-30/swiss-army-chief-warns-social-unrest-calls-upon-citizens-arm-themselves<br /><br />I bet Europeans are glad they voted in the EU now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41005860443985410512015-12-30T11:13:34.535+00:002015-12-30T11:13:34.535+00:00http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/...http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/NYSE-Margin-Debt-and-the-SPXAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79863243697795788922015-12-30T11:13:13.874+00:002015-12-30T11:13:13.874+00:00I'm not much for attempting to see the future ...I'm not much for attempting to see the future so I'll leave those arguments about Fed direction jumping to others. I do though look at charts of the NYSE margin below and think based upon that discretion is the better part of valour for Equity long positions. Moreover considered alongside recent spreads in HY Bonds even more of a reason to doubt the 'risk on' view. Taken on a top down basis where US equity floats or sinks global equity it's hard to justify having much 'risk on' anywhere. That much referred to hammock doesn't look a bad place to be if one doesn't want to actively try to short sell risk.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27923378530244162132015-12-30T10:20:46.406+00:002015-12-30T10:20:46.406+00:00Very good & happy new year. Thanks for the blo...Very good & happy new year. Thanks for the blog and thoughts MM, and regulars.<br /><br />northshoreAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19227691297942689712015-12-30T08:29:40.852+00:002015-12-30T08:29:40.852+00:00Equity indexes are forming a massive break-out pat...Equity indexes are forming a massive break-out pattern. We will likely see HUGE upside in 2016 as central banks go all-in. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83984107376648905052015-12-30T06:49:35.780+00:002015-12-30T06:49:35.780+00:00push it push it amigo i need indices ripe and high...push it push it amigo i need indices ripe and high at year end<br /><br />with current breadth at 70% January should be beary beary interesting.Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35870493607418986662015-12-29T21:10:45.147+00:002015-12-29T21:10:45.147+00:00Hmm that last comment by the artist formerly known...Hmm that last comment by the artist formerly known as Anon surely indicates a bit of a rough patch in the beginning of January. Don't ya think? CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74834360474713278512015-12-29T20:37:24.439+00:002015-12-29T20:37:24.439+00:00As we predicted, US equities are rallying towards ...As we predicted, US equities are rallying towards all-time highs !<br /><br />We would like to thank the bears/shorts here for lining our pockets through 2015, and trust you will continue to donate your funds to us for the next 12 months. Happy New Year !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47750923806013760632015-12-29T17:34:10.961+00:002015-12-29T17:34:10.961+00:00Yes. Obviously we will, as always, play based on w...Yes. Obviously we will, as always, play based on what we see in front of us. If you get the ball at the kick off and see eight garden gnomes and three fat blokes in front of you, the way you set up is a bit different from what you might do if confronted with the 1953 Hungarian team or the 1970 Brazil side... note that we only care about the bond market's verdict on growth, nothing else.<br /><br />Note that we were quite careful not to make predictions about spoos, our least favourite trading instrument. That market is always the last to get the message, but you should look at the charts for IWM to see that there are already signs of broad equity market weakness following on the problems in high yield. It's more important to our performance for us to be right about FX and rates than equities, and so that's what we focus on.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36387392126397410042015-12-29T14:32:36.907+00:002015-12-29T14:32:36.907+00:00Left - thanks for your thoughts - you know I sympa...Left - thanks for your thoughts - you know I sympathize with your views, but will say two things regarding rate hikes - 1) policy makers do make mistakes, so I wouldn't assume that they have a dovish 'tilt' at this point any more than their collective emotional desire to appear correct in their past decisions - 2) the data is sluggish and hinting at recession for sure, but not fully keeled over yet - since nothing moves in a straight line, it is just as likely that we get a hope jag in the first quarter, a crude bottom is declared, and a couple more OK to decent NFPs (say 150-200) get thrown into the ring.<br />The reality of whether the US is headed to sub 1% growth is rather irrelevant, because it is - the issue is what will it take for the market to come to terms with it, and I hold on to my idea (for now) that we are 6 to 9 months away from the frying pan hitting the wise men and women in the face. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47709792427538289512015-12-29T13:32:40.086+00:002015-12-29T13:32:40.086+00:00Punters to right of him,
Punters to left of him,
P...Punters to right of him,<br />Punters to left of him,<br />Punters in front of him<br />Volley'd and thunder'd;<br />Storm'd at with shot and shell,<br />Boldly he rode and well,<br />Into the jaws of Death,<br />Into the mouth of Hell<br />Rode Leftback in his assurance.<br /><br />...Nice summary of your ideas, Lefty. Indeed I hope that your agility in trading does not leave you this year, and you out-think the boys and girls in the Eccles building. I certainly agree that the Fed could rethink the move, but this sounds a little like the old Greenspan briefcase that was watched eagerly on Fed meeting days to see if it was stuffed or thin. Bets that the Fed will stop and retreat in 2016 based on the weakness of the economy. I suspect you will watch the tea leaves and trade on what you see, not on what you have imagined...<br /><br />Either way, I think, at this point, that a recession is likely too, and am patiently waiting for a chance to make money in a short period of time. Let's hope all of us do...<br /><br />http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/12/28/still-more-money-market-fragmentation/<br /><br />"Even more curious, the dispersion in federal funds reported a similar surge at the upper end"....Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7840025366818258632015-12-29T10:35:35.463+00:002015-12-29T10:35:35.463+00:00Morning all, from England, where the beer is warm ...Morning all, from England, where the beer is warm and the BoE remains on hold...<br /><br />I see the Hawks and Hikers Club are out for a stroll again (see above). Sorry, but you're all off your rockers, chaps. US economic data is near-recessionary at this point, Midwest and manufacturing already in recession, junk spreads haven't finished widening, and $wtic hasn't bottomed out yet. Surely, even the idiots in the Eccles building are not going to pull a Trichet and hike again into the teeth of that lot, especially with one of the US few growth industries of recent years (shale) on its knees? <br /><br />What we are going to see in the next six months is something quite old-fashioned but with a new spin: inventory glut and a moderate credit crunch leads to a mild common or garden recession but without a yield curve inversion (although we will see 50 bps or so of flattening in 2s10s). Japan has seen this several times since 1990. No prizes are given on this board for forecasting, but given that we still see the huge US-German spread we could potentially see US2y back down at 0.50% and US10y at 1.25%. Somewhere along the road this year we will see EU conditions improve somewhat, the dollar will recede and the Fed may well take back the 25 bps interest rate hike or just begin new asset purchases. A dollar retreat will be a relief for the global economy in general.<br /><br />This is obviously the opposite of the hysteria we are being fed in the media about bond market blowups. I refer the Honourable Ladies and Gentlemen to the answers we gave previously here over the years regarding the "widow maker" aka JGB. USTs are the new widow maker, folks. Peter Punter has built a huge short position in US10s b/c "everyone knows" there will be four rate hikes in 2016, but commercial participants are leaning in the opposite direction from the speculators here, as they are more concerned about the state of US corporate credit markets, not to mention dollar-denominated emerging market debt.<br /><br />Happy New Year to all...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-34474494042951303872015-12-29T10:23:47.250+00:002015-12-29T10:23:47.250+00:00Unrivalled! Bravo ...
I am sure Mr. Holmes' ...Unrivalled! Bravo ... <br /><br />I am sure Mr. Holmes' adversaries will be back as QE4 hits the headlines, but for now, they're nicked! CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68324101456875215402015-12-29T03:06:31.930+00:002015-12-29T03:06:31.930+00:00Fantastic. As always.
Fantastic. As always.<br />Vincent Veganoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44548313194660361582015-12-28T15:45:27.262+00:002015-12-28T15:45:27.262+00:00High Frequency Trading caused the Flash Crash. Of ...High Frequency Trading caused the Flash Crash. Of this, we are sure.<br /><br />http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/4150.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-41877102374841309292015-12-28T14:43:37.001+00:002015-12-28T14:43:37.001+00:00With a Fed hike the currency wars will begin in ea...With a Fed hike the currency wars will begin in earnest, magnifying the deflationary storm already wreaking havoc in industrials, energy, and materials. No sector or strategy is going to be immune, and we’re all going to suffer some casualties. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53984752051205313782015-12-28T13:01:46.599+00:002015-12-28T13:01:46.599+00:00http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-26/...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-26/deutsche-bank-sees-taper-tantrum-echo-ahead-for-u-s-treasuries<br /><br />"The lull won’t last, according to Dominic Konstam, global head of rates research for Deutsche Bank in New York. He predicts the Fed will catch bond traders wrongfooted by raising rates in March. That may prompt a smaller version of the market “tantrum” seen in 2013, when the prospect of an end to Fed bond-buying fueled a sharp selloff in Treasuries.<br /><br />“We call it a ‘baby tantrum,”’ Konstam said. "The idea is that the Fed’s tightening will look somewhat benign, and then you’ll realize that rates are rising to 1 percent. That’s a lot of stress" for markets."<br /><br />...Certainly things could get interesting in a hurry.....Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18614954977459615512015-12-28T07:36:36.188+00:002015-12-28T07:36:36.188+00:00Hipper - Interesting comment amount rising rates b...Hipper - Interesting comment amount rising rates being inflationary. Not sure if I agree, but I think the converse has been proven true somewhat. Rock-bottom global rates and easy credit conditions have encouraged excess allocation of capital to commodity projects that has led to overcapacity/oversupply and thus sharply lower prices. Supply should (and will) leave the market, but unless demand picks up then it will take a while for the overcapacity to works its way out and for prices to bottom out (and therefore for inflationary forces to return) - especially since a lot of the overcapacity (particularly in ferrous and non-ferrous metals) exists in China. <br />[note: I am a "chicken-shit" commodities trader, so might not be qualified to weigh in with the rest of the macro-luminary old guard who post here!]Paperboynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81304710232238050322015-12-27T12:24:00.867+00:002015-12-27T12:24:00.867+00:00Great article, as usual. Amusing, stimulating and ...Great article, as usual. Amusing, stimulating and insightful. Hope you had a great Christmas and have a good NY, MM. Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33808009842562433462015-12-27T00:05:03.139+00:002015-12-27T00:05:03.139+00:00A good laugh. ThanksA good laugh. Thanksisomorphismeshttp://econ.isomorphism.esnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75756619502200542782015-12-24T22:06:47.253+00:002015-12-24T22:06:47.253+00:00Thank you MM.
I wish you, your family and loved on...Thank you MM.<br />I wish you, your family and loved ones and all the guys that contribute to this space a peaceful Christmas.ALnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22890225277811267592015-12-24T17:28:59.466+00:002015-12-24T17:28:59.466+00:00@hipper: GAAP earnungs are coming down since Q2 al...@hipper: GAAP earnungs are coming down since Q2 already. Don't look at the funny stuff they make up over a glass or two... even that stagnates. Combine this with retreating margings and stagnating sales and we might see the end of this profit cycle right now.<br /><br />Happy holidays everyone!Eddienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19796093330387329482015-12-24T04:57:15.835+00:002015-12-24T04:57:15.835+00:00http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/23/opinion/bernie-s...http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/23/opinion/bernie-sanders-to-rein-in-wall-street-fix-the-fed.html<br /><br />Bernie Sanders: To Rein In Wall Street, Fix the Fed<br /><br />"To rein in Wall Street, we should begin by reforming the Federal Reserve, which oversees financial institutions and which uses monetary policy to maintain price stability and full employment. Unfortunately, an institution that was created to serve all Americans has been hijacked by the very bankers it regulates."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com