tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5627266351813030350..comments2024-03-29T03:19:56.674+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Bear Food With Chinese SeasoningMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18648861812918571622012-04-04T08:44:04.586+01:002012-04-04T08:44:04.586+01:00TMM, so how about the fall in Oz exports, particul...TMM, so how about the fall in Oz exports, particularly coal? <br /><br />Coal=electricity in China, and surely we can't keep blaming things on LNY for the next twelve months...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40098019290392403392012-04-04T03:27:57.007+01:002012-04-04T03:27:57.007+01:00AUD cliff diving and Nikkei falling precipitously....AUD cliff diving and Nikkei falling precipitously....<br />(OK, I exaggerate but it has been a bit DULL lately).Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7171678318607093712012-04-04T00:39:15.798+01:002012-04-04T00:39:15.798+01:00"Why does everything have to be soooo HARD?&q..."Why does everything have to be soooo HARD?"<br /><br />This is what a secular bear market look like. Very hard for fund managers because they are swimming against the current instead of going along with it.<br /><br />The very few who won't drown will have a shot at being the 21st century Ben Graham. It is all what I wish for the macro men.<br /><br />Regarding the "Mickey Mouse", please understand that some people are not interested in , or aware that they are not capable of, trading the short and medium term ripples of the market. So they are still interested by your analysis, but maintain a much steadier stance in marketsCharlesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30642520059520204272012-04-03T21:16:53.582+01:002012-04-03T21:16:53.582+01:00Tend to agree with the latter comments - and am on...Tend to agree with the latter comments - and am once again shorting the Emerging Markups.<br /><br />China, 'nuff said, we won't labor that here in case TMM bring out the Taser. India, we all know that food inflation is really a problem, and their European export markets may be in trouble. Russia, Brazil, essentially commodity plays that depend on oil/gas prices and growth in US, Europe, China. So after allowing for Monday's start of Q2 exuberance we went over from being net long yesterday to the Dark Side this morning. <br /><br />Tomorrow's ADP number in the US takes on more importance than usual this month, b/c Friday's non farm lottery announcement will occur on a day when US markets are closed. Regular readers will know that LB doesn't much fancy the US employment recovery and reckons the data might start disappointing very soon. Any dumping of shares that Wally Wall Street might feel like doing would therefore have to be done before Friday.<br /><br />TMM, sorry for being a massive pain in the arse this week, I owe you all a pint - which, if I am correct, I should be able to spring for. On the other hand, if I am wrong I can expect to get the Andy Carroll or Fernando Torres treatment... ("What a Waste of Money")Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66101427111619468172012-04-03T16:06:30.614+01:002012-04-03T16:06:30.614+01:00glad as well we can find something to discuss asid...glad as well we can find something to discuss aside from grinding S&P.. there's a whole world out there. Cheers TMM<br /><br />India & China do seem to be whipping boys now. Perhaps it is overdone. Perhaps we wait for front page news on leadership change in China and then the real selling climax is in. Indian equities I think have a long way to go down. never been a cheap market<br /><br />Any thoughts on ECB lowering rates? I dont get why the schatz yield is so low?abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60422788284745498062012-04-03T08:17:11.985+01:002012-04-03T08:17:11.985+01:00c SAYS'
China is a consequence of Europe just ...c SAYS'<br />China is a consequence of Europe just as any business is inextricably linked to the fortunes of it's largest customer.<br />Unfortunately Europe is on the wrong fiscal path in austerity so the question as far as I am concerned is not will China be a good growth prospect ,but how will China and indeed India manage their contraction in growth in the face of limited business prospects in Europe.<br />My immediate thoughts on this are that we are, with lag, only now seeing the early signals in data on how this process is going to unfold.Chinese March pmi holds the strongest element of seasonality and I dare say to be taken as a positive it would have needed to be more than it was and what it was was simply not adequate as a one month sigal that a slowing data trend had changed.I would expect the slowing data trend to continue next month which will be sufficient to put the March PMI into context again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57521067304738320992012-04-02T19:45:57.123+01:002012-04-02T19:45:57.123+01:00We'll leave China bashing for another day, and...We'll leave China bashing for another day, and see what other EMs are being bashed in the blogosphere today. Looks like they have bears in the Indian financial jungles too:<br /><br /><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/03/30/944431/indias-economic-monsoon/" rel="nofollow"> India's Economic Monsoon </a><br /><br />The problem with a new and burgeoning middle class is that once they develop a taste for buying imported goods with hot money, they keep on demanding more sugar .... but slower export growth and rising commodity prices will place limits on consumption.<br /><br />India provides a particularly good example of the fallacy inherent in the "BRICs domestic market growth to save the world economy" idea.<br /><br />OK, I'm back off to the woods, I've just spotted TMM coming out of the pub, carrying a cage and one of those tranquilizer dart guns....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69858118437276597102012-04-02T19:31:52.100+01:002012-04-02T19:31:52.100+01:00addendum.....
Naturally if China we're to go ...addendum.....<br /><br />Naturally if China we're to go full scale Qeasing... then it's a lay down misere.Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6551364657134387822012-04-02T19:23:32.638+01:002012-04-02T19:23:32.638+01:00It looks like you've got your wish today, TMM....It looks like you've got your wish today, TMM. Willy Wall Street is bidding up the Emerging Markups.<br /><br />US markets think pretty much any Chinese dish is more than acceptable today, and investors are also gobbling up as much chicken tikka masala*, beluga caviar and feijoada as is humanly possible. It's a bloody BRIC-fest !!!<br /><br />Still, we're not convinced. Mr Market does tend to run 'em up on the first day of the quarter, and the EMs all have some form of inflationary headwind (food, fuel or property prices) that preclude more monetary easing in those markets for the time being. So, for LB's money, it is still going to be last year's meme of DMs over EMs for a while longer, at least until commodities come back to earth.<br /><br />* Yes, we know. Brick Lane....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65550414478867113322012-04-02T19:11:31.647+01:002012-04-02T19:11:31.647+01:00The USA laws of diminishing effect of QE,(h\t Japa...The USA laws of diminishing effect of QE,(h\t Japan)...just may well be sinking in whereas China is presently in the QE cycle....I don't think that's a stretch.<br /><br />I voted the chart screamed "Yours"..I always put the chart at the front and centre of my analysis.<br /><br />USA Market wise?<br /><br />Enough said:<br /><br />http://www.cnbc.com/id/46927119Amplitudeinthehousenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59855973203829874402012-04-02T18:16:32.389+01:002012-04-02T18:16:32.389+01:00Panda BearsPanda BearsCoreynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7268717250317436222012-04-02T16:23:53.869+01:002012-04-02T16:23:53.869+01:00"a mass escape of bears at the bear house in ..."a mass escape of bears at the bear house in the national bear institute, Ursine city.."<br /><br />ROTF, TMM. That is amusing. Made my day. Now this China bear is laughing so hard he may pee all over his fur... however let me answer your question .... (apologies in advance, lads, please don't banish me to Ursine City....)<br /><br />"But what is the point of getting the number right if the market doesn't respond as expected?"<br /><br />Because, my old china, good ole Mr Market is starting to recognize a huge and very tasty pile of PORKY PIES (or dumplings) with HOT CHINESE MUSTARD on when he sees one, perhaps? Yum.... delicious....<br /><br />Anyway I'm glad we can discuss this instead of why AAPL and CMG are riding the f*cking escalator 0.5% higher every day. The grinding top grinds on, in all its grindiness....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75338968726072067762012-04-02T15:38:50.171+01:002012-04-02T15:38:50.171+01:00"Next, the divergence between the HSBC and NB..."Next, the divergence between the HSBC and NBS PMIs, which can arguably be accounted for by considering the changing composition of Chinese growth becoming more orientated to inland cities over the past year or so."<br /><br />My understanding is the HSBC is weighted more with medium and small companies, the other with SOEs. This would jive with the fact SOEs are grabbing an ever larger share of the economy. Also, expansionary policies favor SOEs.<br /><br />That doesn't mean your short-term expectation for a recovery in metals is off, but it does mean the eventual crack up will be worse.Bob_in_MAnoreply@blogger.com