tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5593728090754206730..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Bits and BobsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9947642078494291582012-09-14T08:57:58.864+01:002012-09-14T08:57:58.864+01:00I wouldn't say that. It's just that agency...I wouldn't say that. It's just that agency mREITs are not a one-way respective to QE, 1) because the "safe" nominal yield becomes less attractive as punters are being pushed into risk (think of it as income plays rotating into principal plays) and 2) MBS spread compression (and in effect, open ended caps on mortgage spreads) means that your dividend stream is headed lower.<br /><br />Add the outside chance of a refi bump (not large but still), and you see how price will have to move to keep the divi yield in check against competing investments.Dee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83798886898140820762012-09-14T02:51:48.398+01:002012-09-14T02:51:48.398+01:00@LB, NLY common stock, was that sell-the-news?@LB, NLY common stock, was that sell-the-news?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60604375169233700642012-09-13T18:16:47.956+01:002012-09-13T18:16:47.956+01:00Interesting. The long bond spiked to 3.006% before...Interesting. The long bond spiked to 3.006% before catching a bid. Wonder if that will cap the range or if we will see more selling? Perhaps a function of what happens next in regard to Europe, fiscal cliff etc...<br /><br />The mREITs have run up a fair bit these last few weeks in anticipation of MBS buying, but most of them are actually down on the day, notable exception being CIM. We are only long the NLY-A preferred, which is up today.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42944926783548372912012-09-13T17:54:00.849+01:002012-09-13T17:54:00.849+01:00Dividend punters would do well to take a "it&...Dividend punters would do well to take a "it's not you, it's me" break from our dear Anna Lee, 'cause I am not sure MBS spread compression is going to help the (already down quite a bit) yieldDee Dee Humbersidenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43217894943452117292012-09-13T17:42:01.883+01:002012-09-13T17:42:01.883+01:00So the "no QE3" crash is off the table. ...So the "no QE3" crash is off the table. That's a relief.<br /><br />It will be interesting to see where we trade after the first half hour of stop-hunting robo-trade oscillations is over. If markets are indeed forward-looking, then do we now see FX traders begin to debate the timing, size and likelihood of QE4? Clearly I am being somewhat facetious but this isn't your grandfather's market it's the era of Central Bank Bingo...Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-79166597835654836052012-09-13T16:30:22.585+01:002012-09-13T16:30:22.585+01:00It's 2009 in Spain, perhaps. That was my inten...It's 2009 in Spain, perhaps. That was my intended argument. In the US, maybe it is going to be 2010 for ever. Flashy Crash, then Splash the Cash. A sort of economic Groundhog Day where they bring out Punxsatawney Ben to look at his shadow...<br /><br />Let's hope this isn't Japan 1993, as the response of the Nikkei to the lack of new QE wasn't pretty:<br /><br /><a href="http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/2009/08/japan-during-deflationary-90s.html" rel="nofollow"> Japan 1993 </a><br /><br />Market participants "know" BB will not allow this to happen, don't they? So a deep sell off "can't happen". LB has learned to be wary of certainty. Not bearish, but seeing both sides....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59277720831839213272012-09-13T14:34:07.688+01:002012-09-13T14:34:07.688+01:00And from the looks of it macro team is back from s...And from the looks of it macro team is back from summer vacation.Intrinsic valuenoreply@blogger.com