tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5475282245364922655..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: PeanutsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53373479519669451232009-02-26T04:32:00.000+00:002009-02-26T04:32:00.000+00:00MM,You're right, I must not have caught that old p...MM,<BR/><BR/>You're right, I must not have caught that old post, didn't get hooked on GoogleReader until Oct' 07. Oddly enough, I was caught in a portion of that USD/JPY selloff, perhaps I should take a closer look at those clouds!<BR/><BR/>Whatever happened to the hypothetical portfolio mock-up you used to post back then?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04434902338350455556noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-86212864155927414302009-02-25T23:23:00.000+00:002009-02-25T23:23:00.000+00:00Buy Citigroup.Buy Citigroup.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-91170069770277416552009-02-25T19:40:00.000+00:002009-02-25T19:40:00.000+00:00JL, I've had EUR/GBP for some time. "Remarkable u...JL, I've had EUR/GBP for some time. "Remarkable unrewarding" would be a fair assessment thus far. <BR/><BR/>Ichimoky was a typo, actually...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80773248880197634732009-02-25T19:26:00.000+00:002009-02-25T19:26:00.000+00:00Second life is to geeks as second market is to SIV...Second life is to geeks as second market is to SIV/CDO managers, an opportunity for new beginnings. Who's to question what's real anymore?<BR/>Brian, I think that's why he said ichimoky and not ichimoku, but then again...<BR/>What about that JPY? Probably a bit too sharp but your post was exquisitely timed. <BR/>Fwiw I think EURGBP is a sell around 90 with an 82 target. For all that UK is weak, its not like EUR is much better off, especially given the powerhouse's reliance on global trade and all the worries around spread divergence.<BR/>Cheers, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88741460535945516872009-02-25T18:52:00.000+00:002009-02-25T18:52:00.000+00:00Brian, you clearly weren't reading in the summer o...Brian, you clearly weren't reading in <A HREF="http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2007/07/cloudy.html?showComment=1185379620000" REL="nofollow">the summer of 2007</A>. I hesitated to link to that old post, which contained some terribly un-prescient comments on US housing...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10000794211491532222009-02-25T18:29:00.000+00:002009-02-25T18:29:00.000+00:00If there were any two words I'd never expect to se...If there were any two words I'd never expect to see on this blog, they would be "ichimoky clouds". Are these used by institutional traders? I assumed they were just the latest 'indicator of the month', but perhaps I was wrong.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14027164932168556575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-46994205629898932562009-02-25T16:24:00.000+00:002009-02-25T16:24:00.000+00:00Sometimes it's just better to wait.Sometimes it's just better to wait.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58354018617111005592009-02-25T16:21:00.000+00:002009-02-25T16:21:00.000+00:00MM, how about short us$, flows are weakening a bit...MM, how about short us$, flows are weakening a bit here, euro tends to be on net trading with european cds blow up in spreads, but i mean last week we were pricing in almost a 10% default probability over 5 years for Germany, the common bond offereing idea seems defunct, and ecb can show some initiative into the march meeting with a nice rate cute, euro is a long at 1.23-.124, looking at 1.35 upside almost back to the decemember range where we blew out too.<BR/>any thoughts?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39078462293070584892009-02-25T15:31:00.000+00:002009-02-25T15:31:00.000+00:00citigroup hits -15% on the session as the market r...citigroup hits -15% on the session as the market realizes it's been nothing but words for a whole week..<BR/><BR/>this gets the risk aversions on the move upwards again, us dollar index(DX), gold, silver, and yen futures(JY) perhaps 102 was it<BR/><BR/>i mentioned the cds for us treasures going way up there previously, today lots of articles on european sovereign cds blowing out<BR/><BR/>The iShares Silver Trust indicated that bullion holdings jumped 153.35 tonnes on Monday to a record high 8,180.46 tonnes which is up more than 1,350 tonnes since the start of the year.--->none of that silver was liquidated yesterday from SLV<BR/><BR/>gold instruments are just way to thin to short in this worldwide depressionary environment... GLD has a market cap of $31 billion, which is equal to the 28th lowest dow stock KFT...take 2 dow drug stocks JNJ MRK or PFE and those two stocks have a market cap greater than everything precious metals related in the whole world<BR/><BR/>-deacAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62146959490099193822009-02-25T15:12:00.000+00:002009-02-25T15:12:00.000+00:00The new design looks good.It's better to buy solid...The new design looks good.<BR/>It's better to buy solid gold than gold paper...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42422997414436500732009-02-25T14:39:00.000+00:002009-02-25T14:39:00.000+00:00selling stocks is risk negative, selling gold is r...selling stocks is risk negative, selling gold is risk positive ... given where we are (and past negative news flow) a risk positve bounce seems possible.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88295688118244010332009-02-25T14:13:00.000+00:002009-02-25T14:13:00.000+00:00better to bet on falling gold stocks than gold met...better to bet on falling gold stocks than gold methinks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19737137960290238272009-02-25T13:47:00.000+00:002009-02-25T13:47:00.000+00:00Re: gold....I agree, but structuring a trade is tr...Re: gold....I agree, but structuring a trade is tricky. With gold at ~980, I looked at some 950-900 p spreads....and the premium was roughly 1/3 of the strike spread, rather than my preferred 1/4 or better. I tend to use options for this sort of trade...but just about every option price I look at looks high (unless, of course, I want to sell it..in which case it looks low!)Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-64901875219782822322009-02-25T13:42:00.000+00:002009-02-25T13:42:00.000+00:00i know what it is but im not tellingi know what it is but im not tellingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51373176218998150722009-02-25T13:41:00.000+00:002009-02-25T13:41:00.000+00:00specs are all long gold, it had double topped ... ...specs are all long gold, it had double topped ... and the russia story is behind us as is the pricing in of QE and the potential inflation hysteria ... gold seems the obvious f*** you tradeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70087322509322869302009-02-25T13:14:00.000+00:002009-02-25T13:14:00.000+00:00AT, we've looked at this before...I don't think se...AT, we've looked at this before...I don't think selling UST really fits the bill, because they simply haven't rallied very much and are down on the year. What I am looking for is sort of the screw-you reversal on the first eight weeks' price action.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-50230171825972334422009-02-25T12:57:00.000+00:002009-02-25T12:57:00.000+00:00Hi MM,how about shorting UST 10s? Are T-bonds and ...Hi MM,<BR/><BR/>how about shorting UST 10s? Are T-bonds and T-notes the next bubble?<BR/><BR/>ATAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com