tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post544184120606552018..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: 10 ways to dispose of RMB 1.55 trillion worth of bondsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89532899526539137272007-06-30T00:55:00.000+01:002007-06-30T00:55:00.000+01:00Hilarious!Hilarious!dryflyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10201113255725280900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-12408594343275998932007-06-29T23:46:00.000+01:002007-06-29T23:46:00.000+01:00MM and C - it feels like you guys are already ahea...MM and C - it feels like you guys are already ahead some of us experiencing the Summer doldrums -- even I now am seeing both the yen/yuan blog mirages (enough already!) -- and just in the naked time that I'm taking a couple days to relax and cool off with 4th of July 4th to refocus.<BR/><BR/>Taking a breather!<BR/>Asian ManAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66250466517782238072007-06-29T23:02:00.000+01:002007-06-29T23:02:00.000+01:00Brad, see email re: PBOC participation.Brad, see email re: PBOC participation.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-21108783346273660052007-06-29T21:18:00.000+01:002007-06-29T21:18:00.000+01:00macroman -- i too was a bit surprised that you had...macroman -- i too was a bit surprised that you had total confidence that the PBoC wouldn't be buying the paper, and was hoping for a link (especially on the against the law point -- that seems strange, as gov bonds = the normal asset for central banks). the idea that the PBoC might take a whole lot of bonds and then sell them off to sterilize ongoing inflows always made sense to me -- basically, the pboc rebuilds its inventory of gov. bonds in one big swooop(avoiding the need to sell a lot of bonds into the market) and then slowly sells them off as it needs to withdraw liquidity from ongoing reserve growth.<BR/><BR/>incidentally, jon anderson thinks Chinese reserve growth slowed in May and June (based on some domestic indicators he looks at). Are you hearing similar things?<BR/><BR/>bsetserAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80654676470976771652007-06-29T18:45:00.000+01:002007-06-29T18:45:00.000+01:00C- I don't break out a word like proskynesis for "...C- I don't break out a word like proskynesis for "drivel". I did see your reply on OIAL, but got tied up with some month and quarter end drivel and forgot to respond.<BR/><BR/>I think your stance is a fair and indeed admirable one. The only thing worse than losing money on a position you wholeheartedly agree with (and thus are liable to hang onto too long) is losing money on a position that is fundamentally abhorrent to you. <BR/><BR/>Indeed, it is my custom, when "on song", to exit long-profitable and cherished positions when doubters finally get sucked in by price action. Easier said than done, of course, but I generally try and have an idea of what portion of the market is "renting" a position rather than "owning" it.<BR/><BR/>As noted in the main body of the post, I have found delegating authority over market timing to an "intelligent" machine, and formally segmenting positioning and performance attribution into alpha and beta components, to be strangely liberating.<BR/><BR/>I've been running a soft version of the same idea in the real job, but the hard and fast segregation seems to work better.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42857309684574219772007-06-29T18:13:00.000+01:002007-06-29T18:13:00.000+01:00typo: 'pockets can take' should read 'can't take'typo: 'pockets can take' should read 'can't take'Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89639976960955260922007-06-29T18:12:00.000+01:002007-06-29T18:12:00.000+01:00All credit to submitting to the higher power of th...All credit to submitting to the higher power of the mechanistic model when it comes to re-entering the carry trade. I can understand why the systems have been firing off buy signals, and unless we see a sudden rush for the doors, you have a nice yield cushion to protect against directional moves.<BR/>That said, my rational side just can't stomach getting back in at these levels, and my pockets can take the burning sensation of paying the hefty charges to be long (unless JPY is traded against CHF and other low yielding currencies). Wishing you a profitable journey, Econocator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-10206289859288900272007-06-29T17:59:00.000+01:002007-06-29T17:59:00.000+01:00MM - I am honoured you consider my drivel worthy. ...MM - I am honoured you consider my drivel worthy. <BR/><BR/>BTW, did you see my follow-up to your post over at <A HREF="http://tmcgee.wordpress.com/" REL="nofollow">Once in a Lifetime</A>??"Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2774922204036873982007-06-29T17:04:00.000+01:002007-06-29T17:04:00.000+01:00Great post! :)Great post! :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56176079948776902662007-06-29T15:29:00.000+01:002007-06-29T15:29:00.000+01:00Well, there has been some talk that it is actually...Well, there has been some talk that it is actually against the law for PBOC to hold the debt, hence the list.<BR/><BR/>However, it wouldn't surprise me if the bonds find their way to PBOC and then, as you suggest, never see the light of day again. The biggest assurance you can get that nothing is changing is an announcement rfom the authorities that they intend to change something.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45805309446434217372007-06-29T15:17:00.000+01:002007-06-29T15:17:00.000+01:00Hi, what's your take on the announcement by China ...Hi, what's your take on the announcement by China that the new bonds will be parked at PBoC allowing them the freedom to slowly distribute the bonds? Would think this move significantly reduces the market impact of the issue and, knowing how China works, could mean that the paper stays at PBoC indefinitely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com