tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post534392686704530410..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't existMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55831590667114092172016-03-23T08:58:36.232+00:002016-03-23T08:58:36.232+00:00& like that
(blows)
he's gone...
Great op...& like that<br />(blows)<br />he's gone...<br /><br />Great opener, JLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83275518709535572222016-03-15T22:11:47.490+00:002016-03-15T22:11:47.490+00:00A surge in pharma inventories seems very bizarre, ...A surge in pharma inventories seems very bizarre, right??Whammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8762126893135446842016-03-15T21:59:45.246+00:002016-03-15T21:59:45.246+00:00BinT... on your i/s comment. 1) I think (but haven...BinT... on your i/s comment. 1) I think (but havent had the chance to dig into the numbers yet) that crude oil is having a big impact on inventories<br /><br />And this from Marketfield<br /><br />"On the non-Durable side of the data it is worth noting the remarkable buildup of pharmaceutical inventories this cycle. We assume this is more a function of higher drug prices rather than a surge in the number of tablets held in storage but at $53.58 bln this is now the largest single contributor to Wholesale Inventories with its share at a record 12.4%, up from 9.2% in December 2013 and we do not view this surge as a bullish phenomenon. Petroleum has seen its share of Inventories fall from 15.8% to 7.5% over the same period, a reminder of the fact that a relatively small move in the statistical total hides remarkable shifts in sector performance over the last two years . " <br /><br />I guess we get to know if the 200day holds or not tomorrow. Small caps/oil related risk have already come off a few percent but nothing major and Fed can easily top them all. Should be an interesting afternoon tom.<br />abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76884465302239288052016-03-15T17:25:19.416+00:002016-03-15T17:25:19.416+00:00"very light commentary lately...
everyone jo..."very light commentary lately...<br /><br />everyone joining the hammock with LB or what?"<br /><br />Always lurking ... count on it! Not sure what to think about the current environment really. March has so far been great for risk assets, but can it last? I am not so sure. <br /><br />Following on the topic of MM's excellent post today, I am surprised by how quick the market has decided that -ve rates are no longer a problem. Because you know, apparently Mr. Draghi defused the currency wars last week with his focus on "domestic credit easing" rather than the euro... in the same vein, the PBOC is apparently not in the spotlight on its currency anymore etc. <br /><br />I am not sure I believe any of these stories, mind. One thing which is clear, though, is that EM/energy/commodity shorts have had a scare, a big one! Short covering here could conceivably add more juice in the short run. CVhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16843402165210120665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-76012092270317966422016-03-15T16:56:38.257+00:002016-03-15T16:56:38.257+00:00Need Nico back....Need Nico back....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62071543370569402942016-03-15T16:17:28.040+00:002016-03-15T16:17:28.040+00:00very light commentary lately...
everyone joining ...very light commentary lately...<br /><br />everyone joining the hammock with LB or what?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66579785400842012152016-03-15T15:58:16.678+00:002016-03-15T15:58:16.678+00:00@MM "The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled...@MM "The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist."<br /><br />Ha - one of my all time favorites - do enjoy the Baudelaire original (clearly not much of a trick from the devil if a French poet was on to it by the 19th century!)<br /><br />http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks06/0607031h.html<br /><br />For the last time guys, China is not a market - the PBoC governor said 'capital controls' are working much better now, which I take to mean the Ministry of obedience is actively, um, interrogating currency shorters, money xfer agents and the like.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4792288887448735482016-03-15T15:39:23.523+00:002016-03-15T15:39:23.523+00:00BitcoinChina BTC/CNY
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/ma...BitcoinChina BTC/CNY<br /><br />https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btcchina/btccnyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88268838066130985732016-03-15T15:10:04.077+00:002016-03-15T15:10:04.077+00:00@Booger,
I think that Beijing's strategy is t...@Booger,<br /><br />I think that Beijing's strategy is to move (devaluing) suddenly to overshoot when most speculators look away and when those speculators chase the train, they can shoot back and burn those traders with the carry cost. <br /><br />Some of those traders will make a profit, but a large number probably would lose money along the way. If they can scare off some speculators and control the devaluing (inevitable) process, they would be consider it a success. <br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44205063294080212952016-03-15T14:17:51.645+00:002016-03-15T14:17:51.645+00:00http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar...http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar<br /><br />inventory to sales ratio now 12% higher than 4 years ago....1.4/1.25....maybe we just need to fund more warehouses....Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48362032199512851222016-03-15T13:12:01.225+00:002016-03-15T13:12:01.225+00:00"For example, of the 30 components of the Dow..."For example, of the 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 20 reported “adjusted” earnings, with 18 of them reporting adjusted earnings that were higher than their earnings under GAAP, according to FactSet. That 18-to-2 relationship alone shows the clear bias of these adjustments: They’re used to inflate earnings, not to lower them to some more realistic level.<br /><br />These adjusted EPS were on average 31% higher in 2015 than EPS under GAAP. That’s way up from 2014 when 19 of the Dow components reported adjusted earnings that were on average 12% higher than under GAAP.<br /><br />And yet, despite the soaring portion of fiction, these adjusted EPS of the companies in the DOW still declined 4.8%. That’s bad enough. But under GAAP, beautified as it might have been, EPS plunged 12.3%."<br /><br />http://wolfstreet.com/2016/03/13/consensual-hallucination-stocks-reality-too-ugly-to-behold/<br /><br />....First money, then ethics....Bruce in Tennesseenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-18138441226399736512016-03-15T12:48:00.086+00:002016-03-15T12:48:00.086+00:00From a quote plaque on the desk of a slick China F...From a quote plaque on the desk of a slick China FX trader at Goldman...<br /><br />I know. You know I know. I know you know I know. We know Henry knows, and Henry knows we know it. We’re a knowledgeable family.<br />– Prince Geoffrey, “The Lion In Winter”Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1977642897624655832016-03-15T12:24:48.837+00:002016-03-15T12:24:48.837+00:00MM, it is only easy for them when the USD is in co...MM, it is only easy for them when the USD is in corrective mode. <br /><br />I think it will be a war of attrition. They win a few battles here and there but may lose the war. Profiting from Yuan devaluation as you mention will not be easy either due to carry. <br /><br />I think they have made some major strategic errors such as blinking last August and more recently making references to fighting speculators. <br /><br />In a strategic way to me, this implies that there is a good chance they have lost. The CB saying they are fighting speculators is like saying the peg is safe. They would not need to say it is safe if it was and they would not need to say they are fighting speculators if it wasn't a real threat. No comment would have been the best option there. <br /><br />By just saying that they are fighting speculators is a signal to other speculators that the situation is fragile and when there is weakness again, speculators will be all over it again and the spike in USD.CNH will probably be more than in January. Boogernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19504370845996209252016-03-15T10:41:21.746+00:002016-03-15T10:41:21.746+00:00http://www.chinamoney.com.cn/fe/Info/16684340http://www.chinamoney.com.cn/fe/Info/16684340Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00101317834469287507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51395394099725944832016-03-15T10:25:24.496+00:002016-03-15T10:25:24.496+00:00Monday sell side commentary: lowest USDCNY fix of ...Monday sell side commentary: lowest USDCNY fix of the year. True. Also Monday? Lowest basket fix of the year. What about just hedging out proportional eurusd and usdjpy as a strategy?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00101317834469287507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83066994603757489142016-03-15T10:23:36.542+00:002016-03-15T10:23:36.542+00:00I guarantee they are. They tell you so on the cfet...I guarantee they are. They tell you so on the cfets website.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00101317834469287507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87696847789142865982016-03-15T09:52:40.389+00:002016-03-15T09:52:40.389+00:00Does that mean the exporting deflation story is st...Does that mean the exporting deflation story is still on?Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-43234823154775128452016-03-15T09:42:30.547+00:002016-03-15T09:42:30.547+00:00I am not sure the Chinese are looking at the same ...I am not sure the Chinese are looking at the same charts as you. There's probably a considerably leeway in the FX weights - and some trade-weighted CNY indices (like MS's "MSCECNTW Index") were trading very orderly in a tight 4% band all throughout last year...Martinnoreply@blogger.com