tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5315124293930647301..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Dollar hollerMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39536501823198681782016-11-17T05:28:20.754+00:002016-11-17T05:28:20.754+00:00@ washed, AAPL's stock is so damned cheap it d...@ washed, AAPL's stock is so damned cheap it doesnt make sense. If it werent this big its PE would be at least double. Thats the problem with a short equity thesis here, there still are some cheap stocks out there, even if the market is expensive. <br /><br />@LB, I wish I were a HY expert. Here's my current thought there - is there enough simple quant portfolio allocators out there to hit the bid on the HY ETF's? I mean the chart looks bad if you just look at price, but spread wise, and vs SPX and VIX, its gotta be attractive. I'm watching CCC spreads closely. will post some charts tomabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7371660612055276732016-11-17T04:26:44.961+00:002016-11-17T04:26:44.961+00:00They're going to need one hell of bond salesma...They're going to need one hell of bond salesman, and strike while the dollar is rising. <br />After nine years running, it's safe to say the trillion dollar deficit is structural, and you've got two branches of government - three if you count the fed - intent on blowing it out further. bid from global trade/exorbitant privilege is pale figure of what it was, esp with chinese capital flight, oil producers are liquidating what they own, and multi-year risk parity party is over. leaves just boj, for a piece of it. :)<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17456040735312730312016-11-17T01:24:06.337+00:002016-11-17T01:24:06.337+00:00I hear John Stumpf is available...I hear John Stumpf is available...Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51910837897433416502016-11-17T01:10:48.522+00:002016-11-17T01:10:48.522+00:00Apparently Dimon has turned down the offer: "...Apparently Dimon has turned down the offer: "Dimon feels he’s not suited to serving as the nation’s top ranking economic official, according to sources familiar with the situation. It may be that he had reckoned that serving in the Administration would require curbing the blunt, outspoken style that has served him so well in the financial world. J.P. Morgan shareholders will be relieved; the bank’s shares dropped 2.5% on the rumor."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55134018855950214792016-11-17T01:08:13.249+00:002016-11-17T01:08:13.249+00:00In French it would be pronounced Demon, right?! :...In French it would be pronounced Demon, right?! :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65617557212577567702016-11-16T23:19:54.930+00:002016-11-16T23:19:54.930+00:00Oh and , Dimon is not a descendant of the Rothsch...Oh and , Dimon is not a descendant of the Rothschilds!!He is a descendant of Greek immigrants who changed the family name from Papademetriou to Dimon to make it sound more French.rs55https://www.blogger.com/profile/18295141329379319099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60051157372213853412016-11-16T23:15:31.319+00:002016-11-16T23:15:31.319+00:00I am pleased that DJT is not literally "drain...I am pleased that DJT is not literally "draining the swamp". Historically, dismantling institutions in a radical way does not lead to good outcomes. As an extreme example look at what we did in Iraq. probably the worst mistake of that entire sordid affair was to gut all institutions including the regular army. Did'nt work out too well.<br />I think he s doing the right thing - use many insiders , but set a new tone. And implement those anti-corruption measures.rs55https://www.blogger.com/profile/18295141329379319099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-80613308727111586622016-11-16T23:08:40.262+00:002016-11-16T23:08:40.262+00:00Treasury Sec is a very technical job. You cant put...Treasury Sec is a very technical job. You cant put an Iowa potato farmer in that job - just to show that you care. So , Jamie Dimon would be a fine choice. Also - a decent, honorable person can behave differently depending on what position he occupies - No? If you are private businessman - you go all out to make money within the boundaries of the law - and that is good and fine . Same person - in a Treas Sec position works for the nation - and does the right thing - and cracks the whip etc. This is not contradictory and smart, honorable people can make the switch.rs55https://www.blogger.com/profile/18295141329379319099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14369650249268304442016-11-16T22:04:58.076+00:002016-11-16T22:04:58.076+00:00Oil Options Traders Buy Record Bullish Contracts A...Oil Options Traders Buy Record Bullish Contracts Amid OPEC Talks <br /><br />https://twitter.com/jessefelder/status/798987125010014208<br /><br />These guys will loose their shirts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71010432114964100292016-11-16T21:47:03.643+00:002016-11-16T21:47:03.643+00:00Tax holiday on current cash abroad as lon as it is...Tax holiday on current cash abroad as lon as it is invested in some form of infrastructure bond or new jobs. 15% corp from there on in for anyone who avails. Should work fineAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17512443653642647542016-11-16T21:45:16.735+00:002016-11-16T21:45:16.735+00:00Oh how nice - who better to look out for the inter...Oh how nice - who better to look out for the interests of the working class than Pierpoint Percival Dimon. I guess we will be bailing out banks then. Not that they will be needing one - things are going so swimmingly well. washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19575184023941661912016-11-16T21:28:08.406+00:002016-11-16T21:28:08.406+00:00Jamie Dimon rumored to be named at TreasuryJamie Dimon rumored to be named at TreasuryNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56907274273865949022016-11-16T21:10:47.996+00:002016-11-16T21:10:47.996+00:00Which begs the question - if AAPL stock is 20% off...Which begs the question - if AAPL stock is 20% off the highs with massive buybacks, exploding samsung phones, and equities close to records. where would it go without?<br />If I ever saw an over-owned piece of paper...washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-4308671999998968912016-11-16T21:09:14.373+00:002016-11-16T21:09:14.373+00:00I think that all the hopes attaching to the Trump ...I think that all the hopes attaching to the Trump presidency should fade somehow: given that media is ever louder on painting Trump transition as incompetent and slow; given that Rub house and senate do not mention any public money for infrastructure; given that they plan to cut entitlement as well when they formulate tax and regulation cuts. All those excitements depend on vague hopes that Trump presidency is going to have all those fabulous benefits but no such risks as trade wars, firing Yellon, or mass deportations. I am not saying that any of these risk events would happen, but it seems that the market does not put any risk premium of those events in the asset prices. <br /><br />I think that we should remind ourselves that Trump presidency is still very uncertain. Be careful when the expectation goes extreme.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3804462969004853882016-11-16T21:00:04.478+00:002016-11-16T21:00:04.478+00:00Mr. T, why in the world would AAPL buy back the de...Mr. T, why in the world would AAPL buy back the debt when the coupon is a fraction of the company's return on capital/equity/assets as well as the earnings yield, plus the payments are tax deductible? Cannot see it...more likely HIA2 will simply be used to fund the next round of buybacks/divvys while the business continues to throw off cash, if not growth.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71354064177222570822016-11-16T20:50:46.919+00:002016-11-16T20:50:46.919+00:00If tax holiday comes for the likes of AAPL etc, wo...If tax holiday comes for the likes of AAPL etc, wouldn't they use it primarily to repay the debt they took on to finance the current buybacks? I don't think investors would like a negative-net-cash AAPL all that much.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51152015931532530252016-11-16T19:02:53.150+00:002016-11-16T19:02:53.150+00:00I recall years ago reading a book about this guy w...I recall years ago reading a book about this guy who worked in a circus or some such. He made a killing in stocks whilst he was out of the US juggling bears or something. In other words he made a lot of money when he was away from the market ,away from the noise, and didn't micro manage his portfolio when the tape and the media got inside his head.<br />Not sure why I remembered that today other than I was thinking all this Internet shite certainly makes one think that if noise was shite then the world as a major case of diarreah .<br />The context for that MM was the ability of some faceless nonentity quoting an abbreviated sentence from your blog without any of the accompanying nuances that made it useful.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62061953425790317022016-11-16T18:53:52.610+00:002016-11-16T18:53:52.610+00:00Is this a contrarian signal ?
"Blogger Macro...Is this a contrarian signal ?<br /><br />"Blogger Macro Man , among others, says the dollar index could shoot 15% to 20% higher."<br /><br />http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-rally-is-about-to-catch-a-chill-if-this-indicator-holds-2016-11-16?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigchartscheckmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82755790985736392542016-11-16T18:42:54.608+00:002016-11-16T18:42:54.608+00:00So, we have the least experienced President in his...So, we have the least experienced President in history, who lost the popular vote against a very weak candidate, and people think it's morning in America? Why wouldn't a long-term capital allocator see through the next four years to the administration likely to follow in 2020. Namely, some Sanders-esque lefty who is going to hike taxes and grow government spending/GDP significantly. I'd like to think the American middle class realizes that such a government won't create the kind of jobs they want, but it seems plausible they'd give it a try if Trump fails. My modal forecast is stagflation, likely under Trump too.<br /><br />One thing stocks really have going for them now is the overseas cash repatriation. There are going to be better trades than shorting equities.<br /><br />Trying to pick a near-term bottom in the yen today. We'll see. Probably a fool's errand. Short EURCHF still seems clearest trade to me.<br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51643517051204619482016-11-16T17:24:27.908+00:002016-11-16T17:24:27.908+00:00This new industrial renaissance - will probably pl...This new industrial renaissance - will probably play out over decades , with some items taking longer to set up than others. Perfect timing for the Millenial cohort getting into their 30s - and this cohort is nearly the size of the Boomers.rs55https://www.blogger.com/profile/18295141329379319099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88621160296397392722016-11-16T17:21:16.773+00:002016-11-16T17:21:16.773+00:003D printed clothing is already on the market. So w...3D printed clothing is already on the market. So why do we want to locate the printers in Vietnam? No need. print them here - close to the consumers.<br />rs55https://www.blogger.com/profile/18295141329379319099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53663769173418046572016-11-16T17:15:03.102+00:002016-11-16T17:15:03.102+00:00The "old industries" ( agrigulture, stee...The "old industries" ( agrigulture, steel, autos,energy etc) are still critical for human civilizations - we dont live on "bits" alone. Due to computers, automation and robots the productivity in these industries is rising fast - or , on the flip side, labor costs are less important, so globalization loses appeal other than for tax and regulatory arbitrage. It is not a coincidence that corporate taxes, repatriation of offshored capital and massive reduction in regulations are key elements of Trumponomics. Moreover, there is a huge associated growth in services when you bring in an "old industry" plant back - so there is a multiplier effect.<br />Tech and innovation cant work in a vaccuum. People still live in a world of "atoms".rs55https://www.blogger.com/profile/18295141329379319099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57567585237978787982016-11-16T16:34:09.964+00:002016-11-16T16:34:09.964+00:00It is absolutely astounding to me that if this bon...It is absolutely astounding to me that if this bond market move lower/USD spike higher had happened even 1 month ago, we would be talking about an absolute mayhem in equities. And yet, for some unknown reason, market participants have managed to convince themselves, over the course of the past week, that Trump and his policies would fuel the next massive bull market -- on whatever timeframe anyone bullish has in mind. What happens when they run out of ganja? And what happens when people realize that you can't (fiscal) stimulate a dead horse of an old industry -- this isn't the 1980s after all, but 2016. Tech and innovation are the way to go for the U.S. -- you hurt those, and all you're going to get is a whole bunch of staglation in the U.S., with a few monetary policy errors along the way, for good measure... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30527167697505906652016-11-16T16:06:14.453+00:002016-11-16T16:06:14.453+00:00Hahaha LB - yes - was it you who recommended every...Hahaha LB - yes - was it you who recommended everyone switch to indica from sativa? I believe that was the start of the sideways phase in global equities!washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-58297308636400850642016-11-16T16:00:52.286+00:002016-11-16T16:00:52.286+00:00For me it's about timeframe and people's d...For me it's about timeframe and people's differing timeframes can often lead to misunderstanding. I could easily envisage currency and bond markets getting into what I would term to be consolidation mode anywhere here. Others, maybe LB would call it a tradeable correction. In terms of events that gives the market the time to consider exactly what a Trump term of office will look like and define a trend which in policy terms will with hindsight show the end of the bond bull market and a more inflationary environment. The latter of course is no done deal simply one potential outcome. However, it is an outcome currently foreseen by people like Gundlach and Dallio both of whom I respect as macro economic thinkers.checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.com