tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post5184256277437175702..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Fixed income musingsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger36125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71026175591669166042016-03-24T06:40:14.767+00:002016-03-24T06:40:14.767+00:00the spectacular Eurostoxx triangle since Draghi wh...the spectacular Eurostoxx triangle since Draghi whipsawing Thursday two weeks ago is likely to break on the downside - lookout below. Meanwhile here is how the Fly reports on Europe migrants snafu. It ain't pretty<br /><br />http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/03/23/coming-soon-to-a-refugee-filled-european-city-near-you/<br /><br />Now that everyone has a camera in their phone, Youtube has become an overwhelming hub for 'micro' reporting. In a way it enhances social conscience at large - i see this as a very positive. If you're going to misbehave chances are there will be someone near you who will post you to shame on youtube.<br /><br />LIke the great Jim Jefferies put it, the only commandmemnt in any religion would be: 'try to not be a cunt'.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qh3wLT2nIr8 enjoy !Nicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-65157533581612006952016-03-24T00:47:23.974+00:002016-03-24T00:47:23.974+00:00The only logic I can see to his extradition is tha...The only logic I can see to his extradition is that Guantanamo is running out of inmates. The whole thing is nuts. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-19150057328644800562016-03-24T00:45:11.611+00:002016-03-24T00:45:11.611+00:00anyone has a take on Sarao extradition?
anyone has a take on Sarao extradition?<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60821709541700525982016-03-23T23:44:38.144+00:002016-03-23T23:44:38.144+00:00@abee, I've not run these models recently but ...@abee, I've not run these models recently but I would be willing to bet that the outperformance of the commod currencies vis a vis rate differentials is down to am terms of trade boost from commodity prices. In other words, include copper or iron ore to an Aud model, oil to a CAD model, and I think that will explain the price action.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-56536169046460962372016-03-23T22:28:32.782+00:002016-03-23T22:28:32.782+00:00Maybe jbtd will get his chance at 1950 to reload. ...Maybe jbtd will get his chance at 1950 to reload. I feel bad that he only has 25% of his risk on. shoelesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07834810780006373841noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63349196349086671832016-03-23T22:00:01.327+00:002016-03-23T22:00:01.327+00:00Right. I'm going to regret this but you have a...Right. I'm going to regret this but you have all persuaded me that the market will struggle to go higher from here and I have done something I haven't done all year. I ve gone short equities. there really doesn't feel as though there is enough support form the rest of the correlated cast and the last week of sideways is looking less likely to resolve upwards with my old faves fading. <br /><br />After having visited rehab declaring I am a JBTFDer. I have to now have to declare. <br />'My name is Polemic .. and I just sold the rally"Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-3172206853178852022016-03-23T21:44:00.122+00:002016-03-23T21:44:00.122+00:00@abee --
Just a quick "thanks" for the ...@abee --<br /><br />Just a quick "thanks" for the heads-up on US Steel bonds back in November. That's the kind of idea well inside my comfort zone, unlike most of this macro stuff.<br /><br />If all of my trades returned 50% in four months, I would be done pretty quickly<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-2907464150745405902016-03-23T20:15:44.483+00:002016-03-23T20:15:44.483+00:00LB has had a very decent day of it today. Directio...LB has had a very decent day of it today. Directional positions we entered Friday through yesterday in GDX, IWM, USO and XLE have rewarded our patience. No prizes for guessing the directionality.<br /><br />Still waiting for AUDUSD and UUP bets to pay off in full but it's looking good for the trend change in FX that we had proposed. As everyone here knows all too well, if you get the major FX moves right, some degree of trading success usually follows. <br /><br />Last year was a lesson for LB to the extent that the obverse also applies, as our portfolio suffered greatly from the extent and duration of the dollar's bull run from 2014 into 2015. MM is still enjoying taking the p*ss over that major FX mis-read.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-69769407096691644442016-03-23T19:18:01.469+00:002016-03-23T19:18:01.469+00:00MM, was just looking at CAD and AUD in relation to...MM, was just looking at CAD and AUD in relation to their 2 year interest rate spreads vs US, which has done a good job correlating with the move over the past 2-3 years. Any thoughts on the recent divergence, whereby both AUD and CAD have overshot vs yield spread. <br /><br />Thanks abee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25001601277429445842016-03-23T19:16:26.237+00:002016-03-23T19:16:26.237+00:00"My acumen has been rendered worthless by fuc..."My acumen has been rendered worthless by fucking algos and wifey refuses to copulate."<br /><br />Indeed - its all downhill from here - MM - lets freeze frame and admit that nothing we say from this point in all of 2016 shall match the sheer insightfulness and wisdom of this comment. <br /><br />washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42562953765163857352016-03-23T19:10:08.632+00:002016-03-23T19:10:08.632+00:00Fixed income...I'm not selling...well I mean I...Fixed income...I'm not selling...well I mean I can't sell!<br /><br />via BBG:<br /><br />Signs of stress are multiplying in Japan’s government bond market, which is crumbling under pressure from the central bank’s unprecedented asset-purchase program and negative interest rates.<br /><br />Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly said his policies are having the desired effect on markets, including suppressing JGB yields. His success is driving frenzied demand for longer-dated notes as investors avoid the negative yields offered on maturities up to 10 years. And as buyers hang on to debt offering interest returns, the BOJ is finding it harder to press on with bond purchases of as much as 12 trillion yen ($107 billion) a month, sparking sudden price swings leading to yield curve inversions that have nothing to do with economic fundamentals.<br /><br />“We hold a lot, and we’re not selling,” said Yoshiyuki Suzuki, the head of fixed income in Tokyo at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, which has $59 billion in assets. “We can get interest income. If we sell, there are no good alternatives.”<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-17930905710492706952016-03-23T19:06:27.234+00:002016-03-23T19:06:27.234+00:00I nominate anon 7.04 for 'comment du jour'...I nominate anon 7.04 for 'comment du jour'<br /><br />Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85463517123159565622016-03-23T19:04:08.629+00:002016-03-23T19:04:08.629+00:00My acumen has been rendered worthless by fucking a...My acumen has been rendered worthless by fucking algos and wifey refuses to copulate. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-5383840921116180452016-03-23T18:57:50.182+00:002016-03-23T18:57:50.182+00:00good call on bucky lefty
1.15 seems to be the con...good call on bucky lefty<br /><br />1.15 seems to be the consensus cap on EUR might be wise to play the 1.03-1.13 Atlantic channel<br /><br />besos desde BilbaoNicohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06532015745155347229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-62585416039544163212016-03-23T16:45:56.718+00:002016-03-23T16:45:56.718+00:00MM insights on Feb hawkish tones picked up on ft.c...MM insights on Feb hawkish tones picked up on ft.com as well...<br /><br />"But if investors take time to summon up the courage to dip into EM, it may be too late. Strong US data may force the Fed’s hand, creating a rush for dollars. Already, the usual Fed suspects are sounding more hawkish than the position agreed last week. If the carry trade is back, it will probably not be around for long. A short Spring of mild temperatures may yield to a very hot and sticky summer."<br /><br />http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/140b11d2-f043-11e5-9f20-c3a047354386.html#axzz43cwmD3Bv<br /><br />EUR seems to be pulling down from the 1.135 level tested in 11-feb and recently 17-Mar <br />TraderJimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17870637335405087110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57182341421425562492016-03-23T16:25:30.347+00:002016-03-23T16:25:30.347+00:00Further to Polemic's comments on the metals ab...Further to Polemic's comments on the metals above, it has been a really rough day for the Aussie, and some of the other commodity currencies like RUB and BRL have been absolutely hammered today. MXN and CAD are also being hammered.<br /><br />The Bucky Bounce is on.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49644250490461448102016-03-23T16:16:11.982+00:002016-03-23T16:16:11.982+00:00Nahanon .. my apols.. .. it was probably very rele...Nahanon .. my apols.. .. it was probably very relevant, it just instantly registered as a 'buy buy buy' or 'sell sell sell' comment (prob due to the 'buy buy buy' words and so I hastily confined it to the binary bucket of opinion. So sorry. add to that I m in a bolshy mood today having heard (not so much there but elsewhere) every old fact being trotted out to support no new argument. <br /><br />So .. let's start afresh .. <br /><br />I have to say that LB's comments are resonating with me. Momentum is struggling in many recovery things especially my fave the metals where copper i back on the fall and oil is for once going down, both which would suggest end of short covering phase and the market is tipping for a move south. I have been watching FTSE as a Commodity EM and DM stock rep yet it has been really nailed around the 6200 throughout the whole of March. and fairly stuffing me overtime I think it's going to break one way or the other. Funny old world. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-74042396903438957682016-03-23T15:59:47.255+00:002016-03-23T15:59:47.255+00:00Polmic, my post at 10.32 seems to offended you in ...Polmic, my post at 10.32 seems to offended you in some manner.<br /><br />Think of it as a follow up to MM's jeopardy theme from yesterday... Eg. I have given the answer, whats the question?<br /><br />It has already resonated with others, and no doubt MM is already on the case, it may take you a bit longer to grasp. But the fact that it annoyed you so, I suspect you are already doodling.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55624036955769686182016-03-23T15:57:18.399+00:002016-03-23T15:57:18.399+00:00I would agree with the view promoted by Ray Dalio ...I would agree with the view promoted by Ray Dalio that suggested that velocity is not a really useful tool to explain the credit in the economic system. <br /><br />I am more surprised by the flatting of the yield curve for the last few days. The yield in long bond is so low that I could not see where else the money in equities can go these days. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-66788866698454705052016-03-23T15:07:04.235+00:002016-03-23T15:07:04.235+00:00Marshall, as the resident monetarist you are proba...Marshall, as the resident monetarist you are probably watching M2V all the time, but unless you have access to more recent information on Q1, the St Louis Fed data suggest that velocity is still falling:<br /><br /><a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V" rel="nofollow"> M2V 5 Year Chart </a>Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59469110105556922422016-03-23T15:03:23.945+00:002016-03-23T15:03:23.945+00:00http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-23/...http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-23/flows-to-volatility-etfs-becoming-deluge-as-s-p-500-rally-hedged<br /><br />"TVIX, which bets on an increase in the Volatility Index, absorbed $160 million on Monday, the most ever for a single day and almost twice the security’s previous record." <br /><br />"A leveraged ETF returning twice the performance of the VIX has also seen all-time inflows, even with the fear gauge below 15 for five straight days, the longest such streak since August."<br /><br />Hmmmmm?<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49654159306359051052016-03-23T14:11:20.304+00:002016-03-23T14:11:20.304+00:00"I'm off to borrow 50p for a cuppa tea gu..."I'm off to borrow 50p for a cuppa tea guv"<br /><br />Y rt Pol - 50p won't even buy u a sideways glance from the leather clad barista at the fancy mayfair cafe ur headed off to.<br /><br />Good discussion - I think it underscores more than anything that the equity rally is at a crucial point, with greater risk than normal because so far its played out according to script, but the odds that we diverge from that script and sow confusion and doubt in punters (bearish or bullish) are increasing fast. Your probability distribution is wider than usual.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-40492128726109980852016-03-23T13:51:41.106+00:002016-03-23T13:51:41.106+00:00As a/the resident monetarist, I remember (ok, I se...As a/the resident monetarist, I remember (ok, I searched...) posting about interest rates and monetary velocity way back in Nov, 2014. I think it would behoove investors to realize that an increase in velocity via higher interest rate targets without knocking down M2 will likely lead to further increases in inflation. I wouldn't let go of commodities and other inflation hedges quite yet. Marshall Junghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01494663748081037987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-11672543754309869282016-03-23T13:32:21.795+00:002016-03-23T13:32:21.795+00:00MM. Yeah you are right. MM. Yeah you are right. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59168408499977692472016-03-23T13:29:53.573+00:002016-03-23T13:29:53.573+00:00Commercial Real Estate Sales Plunged Almost 50% Yo...Commercial Real Estate Sales Plunged Almost 50% Yoy In February - WSJ <br />( like a church bell gonging to call the top )Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com